BlueRocky

We’re not really connected to Matt Allan at all, and if we do go the pitching route I think they’re leaning towards Rutledge, Manoah, and Thompson. I’ve also heard from a scout that they’d much rather take Brennan Malone and his stuff/upside/frame than Allan even though he might be the higher rated prep arm. The only 1st round guy with serious signability concerns I’m hearing is Jack Leiter. Without those issues he might be a top 15 pick. Not only because of the bloodlines and pitchability, but he has one of the nastiest breaking balls in the entire draft paired with a mid 90s FB. Also just turned 19 and very polished for his age. Rumor say he only wants to go Yankees or Mets though and wants more than 4M++, and Vanderbilt is a difficult commit to break. Our slot value at 11 is $4,547,500 Just for the record, having the no. 5 and no. 12 pick in next year’s draft isn’t the end of the world. We could do some serious damage in picking up two blue chip guys next year in that scenario, hence why I’m not shying away from picking Carroll even if he has some signability concerns which might slip him down to Arizona. Teams with two picks that high can often set rippling dominos down the entire 1st round, and that’s also some serious pool money for one draft (13M+, we have $8,463,300 in 2019)

Socrates Brito

A contender would have two postseason runs with him, which is a pretty valuable commodity. But a contender would likely have a good closer already, which makes Giles their setup guy. Specifically fishing for a top 100 prospect arm from a team that needs a closer could be a tall order, especially when guys like Kimbrel can be had for just money. In the right scenario though, I think Giles could fetch a very pretty penny. But just be prepared the return may or may not be a pitcher coming back. Sometimes they’ll have to get BPA rather than fill a need.

I think it’s easy to have recency bias, they are both ideally backend guys that flashes mid-rotation stuff on a good day. I’m not sure Thornton will reach higher status without an above average third pitch long term. I’m not completely sold on his cutter (kinda-slider), it’s being hit hard giving up xWOBA .385 and xSLG .494. As his third pitch, he’s throwing it 14.5% of the time. I want to see this get developed a little bit more. In comparison, his elite spin rate curveball gets thrown 31.8% of the time, and has xWOBA .211 and xSLG .252. It also generates a 35.8% whiff rate. The quality between the two pitches is night and day. His changeup is also decent but he barely throws it. His stuff could play up in high leverage bullpen role throwing two plus pitches with high spin rates. There’s potential there to stay in the rotation and Thornton is still young, but that could always be his fallback. I personally think Borucki has a higher floor and more likely to be a staple in the rotation. And if his uptick in velo from spring training is real, and his health issues are behind him, that’s potentially a very good piece in the rotation. Lefties also get more leeway and could get away with lower velo if their control and movement is solid.

Really? Didn’t realize $3.14M/yr is the going rate for everyday players now. We signed him for 7 years too at 23/24 yrs old, he still hasn’t reached 30 homers and 100 RBI. Look at all the potential power bats he’s blocking in Buffalo with Teoscar, McKinney, and Alford!

I agree draft strength doesn’t work the same way compared to NBA/NFL. It has more to do with predictability of where the talent is. It doesn’t bode well for high drafting teams when the best talent end up being 3rd and 5th round picks and exceed their projections while most of the first round picks turn out fodder in the minors or replacement level. This has actually happened many times in the past. Many drafts in the past had their best talent not in the first round and BA did a study on this. They released a list of the top drafts over the past few decades and list them by how many HoF and highest WAR produced by each draft. In summary, they said teams have gotten better at evaluating draft talent now compared to 1980-1990s because the real high WAR guys tend not to fall deeply unnoticed. verseus how much of the top talent get actually drafted in the 1st round. The best draft in recent memory was 2011:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/elite-bats-elevate-2019-mlb-draft-class-belies-lack-of-depth/ Elite Bats Elevate 2019 MLB Draft Class, Belies Lack Of Depth There’s a lot of talk about the lack of college pitching talent in this draft, but there’s also speculation that it’s top heavy and lack depth. This might not be a great year to go fishing for an underslot value. This might be one of those drafts with a consensus no. 1, a strong early first round, then talent sharply falls off. Seems wiser to just take best talent available, highschool or college, and address our pitching elsewhere. Overall it’s gauged as average to below average draft strength after the top of the crop. Next year seems like a strong draft and have some elite pitching at the top.

1/3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K Model citizen of the three true outcome society.

Rookie treatment

Couple rumor points: - D-Backs might be using their large pool money to entice prep guys like Corbin Caroll into signability issues, which might make teams pass on him and he could slide to 16 for a steal, similar to Matthew Liberatore last year. - Texas at no. 8 rumored to be going underslot deals, someone might be bumped to 11 in this scenario that might not have been there otherwise. - Toronto has been heavily scouting guys like Caroll but seems to also lean towards college pitching, looking at guys like Manoah and Thompson. Not sure if Kirby would be also considered but I would as that guy is a strikeout machine. - Rutledge, also a Toronto target, getting some helium because of success from Nate Pearson is interesting. No. 8 is the highest I’ve seen him mocked.

Updated BA mock May 24, 2019 Draft is in 10 days, June 3rd.

I’ll take that over Brito and Hansen

not to add fuel to this debate, but I’ve seen the 4 games that Cavan played RF, and in super small sample size he’s been impressively holding his own. He’s made all routine plays, two spectacular plays, and has both the arm strength and accuracy to reach third with one-hop. For an infielder just learning OF that’s pretty good. He seems to be able to track balls, he’s not slow and has fair range. Taking good routes will require more experience no question. I heard Bobby on radio this morning commented that Cavan is still working at second and has a chance to be an average glove at second, which should be his long term position. He sees Biggio as a second basemen, but the org is trying to introduce young guys to multiple positions just to increase their versatility. Moving Gurriel to LF makes sense because we have better second basemen, he’s been crap everywhere and the other OF options are not that much better. We have no long term position for Gurriel so it makes sense to experiment. I think stick Cavan Biggio at 2B and keep Gurriel to LF. They can rotate Grichuk, Drury, Gurriel between 3 OF positions and have Davis come in as defensive replacement.

http://media.giphy.com/media/14fnBD3MQslIGc/giphy.gif

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-mlb-draft-prospects-chat-with-carlos-collazo-52319/ 2019 MLB Draft Prospects Chat With Carlos Collazo (5/23/19)

High school prep bat mocked in backend of first round.. 70 grade power bat, infielder, above average tools across the board. Questions about his hit tool, huge pop-up in draft stock, rumors of an underslot pick. Where have I heard this before? Just for the record, I fully expect all the mock drafts and speculation to be pointless as Atkins pulls a name out nobody has ever heard of.

That was smoked 107.5mph est 410 ft and didn’t go over the fence

I wouldn’t say he’s strictly a doubles hitter like the numbers suggest, but he clearly made some adjustments since Dunedin and is making better contact (albeit lots of ground balls) and less power. Thought it might be the FSL effect but he also only has 1 homer in NH. Lundquist is closer to a 10-15 HR guy than 20-25. His last 23 games: .351/.467/.541, OPS 1.007 26 hits, 7 doubles, 2 triple, 1 homer 16 walks, 17 strikeouts His SLG should be closer to .430-.450 by the end of the year

Osuna (tanking his own value) for Giles, Paulino, and Perez was also a pretty good move especially if Giles gets flipped again and Perez becomes anything at all. If Sopko is a even half decent the Martin trade will turn out great factoring in the idea was to open playing time for Jansen. Pearce for Santiago Espinal trade was basically a win for both sides, considering his injury history and Espinal is not a bad lottery ticket. Axford for Copping was basically a free asset. Granderson for Demi Orimoloye was another lotto ticket swap. Also this is not a direct trade acquisition, but letting Encarnacion walk and drafting Nate Pearson and convincing Bichette to sign with us might be the biggest supporting moves to the Vladdy era that took years to pay off.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-mlb-draft-prospects-with-best-tools/ 2019 MLB Draft Prospects With Best Tools

19 year old catcher Gabriel Moreno with another 3 hit game today in Lansing. He’s batting .353 with 1.000 OPS in 4 games Switch hitting third basemen Cullen Large with another good game, is maintaining an OPS .900 and 160 wRC+ over 40 games in Dunedin. Should be getting the promotion call soon I think. Josh Winckowzki pitched another good game recently 7.0 IP, 10 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K ERA 1.64, FIP 2.93, xFIP 3.49 in 8 starts. Still a 61.3% ground ball rate Jackson Rees has been ridiculous. Bullpen arm. A bit old for Lansing, should be promoted soon. 17 IP and 10 games, ERA 0.53, FIP 0.50, xFIP 0.71 15.88 K/9, 1.59 BB/9 30 K/3 BB 69% GB% Has given up 1 ER in 63 batters faced.

Do you think there’s any chance the Phillies might have interest in Stroman and Giles?

Based on right now, we’re literally getting pennies on the dollar in a Sanchez trade. Even taking his performance out of the equation (and he hasn’t been spectacular), no contender wants to give up valuable assets for a guy that can’t keep his uniform on with biweekly blisters and fingernail issues. There’s no question Sanchez would want to stay in the rotation to help his free agency chances in 2020, even though it’s probably the better option to sell him as a bullpen piece. He might not agree to do it. If he can’t stay healthy until July, we might have to hold onto him. I can’t speculate if an offseason trade would happen, but the asset would continue to depreciate. I just hope we won’t end up with nothing but a qualifying offer comp pick for Aaron as that would be another black mark on this regime. It might be out of their control but it doesn’t look good after missing on Donaldson.

or Vladdy could borrow some catching equipment and we'll be in for a rare treat