I can understand if they want to take a gamble on a guy like Rutledge or Malone, but they’d have to really love what they see there.. prep righties are a high risk pick that bust more often than not. Because of the health risks with young arms, and not a lot of data on these 17/18 year olds (mostly beating up on other teenagers), it could be tough to commit 3-4 Million on that young arm. They tend to be expensive as they’ve got leverage of declining your offer and going to college.
There’s enormous volatility there as you can get anything from an Aaron Sanchez to a Daniel Norris. A MacKenzie Gore or Forrest Whitley to a Brady Aiken. There’s hundreds of examples of failed high pick pitching prospects or ones that never come close to reaching their ceiling.
We’ve been linked to Bryson Stott on several occasions, including an earlier version of BA’s mock draft. It’s easy to see why as the Blue Jays seem to really like middle infield guys that can hit. The college SS pool isn’t particularly amazing this year but Stott would be the best one.
I think I would be more excited for this pick if we didn’t already have Bichette, Biggio, Smith, Warmoth, Groshans already brewing in the system. Not that you draft for need, you always get best talent available—but the bar for middle infield has been set pretty high in this farm system. It’s possible Stott could be better than both Smith and Warmoth. But aside from Groshans we also have guys like Miguel Hiraldo, Orelviz Martinez, and Leonardo Jimenez down in rookieball that could be something. You don’t ever want to draft for position but it’s worth considering when you’ve got a goldmine of shortstops and lacking everywhere else.
I personally would gravitate towards taking a flyer on Corbin Carroll, unless they really like Brett Baty’s bat. The age thing concerns me a little, but if he’s really that elite of a hitter it won’t matter. The only risk is Baty’s great numbers have been a byproduct of him beating up on younger kids and he would struggle when he plays against college kids in A ball. All you can do is evaluate the tools, the makeup, and see if it’s worth betting on.
Now just remember someone always falls every year. If a guy like Hunter Bishop fell on our lap it could be a hard pass. There’s a bit of risk there so it’s possible he falls. But there’s only a handful of guys with those tools in the draft class and mashing in the college scene during his draft year.