BlueRocky

There’s a good chance Gonzales goes before #5. Not only is he raking to start the season, he’s even playing SS now and answered doubts about the wood bats by crushing it in the cape-cod. Playing in high elevation at New Mexico State helps, but so does the ongoing 74 game on-base streak. There’s speculation he could go as high as #2 or 3. The college pool this year is very strong, even though I’m high on prep guys like Austin Hendrick and Zac Veen, one of the premium college names should be available at #5 and it’s really hard to pass. Hancock and Lacy might be the best college arms in the draft (best stuff and upside), but Detmers might be the best “pitcher”. The guy is an absolute strikeout machine. Out of the three best bats in the nation, Gonzales has the loudest first 9 games of the season so far with an absurd 1.970 OPS. It’s bound to be inflated a bit when he gets a 2-homer, 5 hit cycle with 7 RBIs in a 18-4 slaughter fest against Iona last week.

For the amount of swing and miss in his game, he doesn’t generate much power. I’m not sure he’s got one plus tool in the box. Kinda just does everything ok, they’ve experimented with using him in multiple positions, including CF. I’m a bit higher on Forrest Wall, the guy can take a walk and do some damage with his speed. Also showed a tad more power.

This list is going to look so different by July. I like Wincky and Lopez finally getting some love.

Sleeper: Griffin Conine: He led all blue jays prospects last year in home runs even after returning from a 50 game suspension. Most impressively he does it to all fields while still seeing deep counts and drawing 10%+ walks. He put up a 169 wRC+ in his first season in Lansing. The K% is a concern but I think it’ll settle down to @25%, the eye is good and bat is good, it’s more about pitch selection with him. I really like the power in his bat and the guys down in Lansing rave about him. His power is potentially 70-grade while gunning down runners from RF with 97mph throws. The best OF arm in the system. He could be our version of Joey Gallo. Bust: Rowdy Tellez: I just don’t see him ousting other first baseman options.. especially if Vlad moves there. Shaw or Gurriel might also see time there. The power is good but he simply doesn’t hit or get on-base enough. He’s also not consistent enough to be a full-time DH. I’m cheering for the guy, but I don’t see a long term future here. Teoscar Hernandez: Sorry dude not a fan. New legit guys (MLB): Danny Jansen: His defensive metrics have been solid, but the bat has been inconsistent in his rookie season. His incredible minor league numbers offensively have not yet translated, but I think he’ll do better in 2020. He had 68 wRC+ and still produced 1.4 fWAR in 2019. If he hits closer to 90-100 wRC+ while keeping that defence he’s easily a 2-3 WAR catcher. Cavan Biggio: I’ve been all over Biggio since double-A. He should be fine at second base, let him play there instead of moving him around every other day. His numbers should continue to improve, his walk rates and pitch recognition is incredible, he just needs to find that power stroke from AA/AAA. He should do great with all the short porches in right field over the AL east. I like him batting behind Bichette and in-front of Gurriel and Vlad, Biggio getting on base is something we’ll see often. I see a 3+ WAR player here. Anthony Kay: I think if Kay can keep the HRs down, he has the stuff to be a solid backend starter. It’s so easy to forget he was pretty highly touted just a year ago and even got invited to the MLB Futures game (same as Pearson). His FB can tick up to the mid-90s and at times show a good curve and changeup. I think he can pickup a few things from the vets like Ryu or Shoemaker and develop more consistency. I like his chances as a long term backend guy. And there’s nothing wrong with that. In world where Tanner Roark gets 24M/2yr and Chase Anderson’s getting 8.5/9.5M per year, we need guys like this. Rising Prospects: Alek Manoah: He’s got an electric fastball and a wipeout slider. Other secondaries improving. His stuff should play at Dunedin, I think he’s a top 100 prospect mid season. Has touched upper-90s in Vancouver. Adam Kloffenstein: He’s grown a lot since we drafted him with Groshans. The raw stuff started to translate into results second half of his season in Vancouver. I like his pitch mix and he uses his 2-seamer well. The slider at times look devastating. @6-5, 240 he’s got the frame to throw gas like Pearson & Manoah. I think his stock will really go up by the time he reaches double-A. Orelvis Martinez: Obvious reasons. The hit tool is mature beyond a typical 17-18 year old and the power tool is plus. Guy has speed for triples and playing a decent SS. Let’s see him in Lansing and cement his spot on the top 100s. Miguel Hiraldo: Guys down in Lansing that enjoyed Otto Lopez will be thrilled to have Hiraldo this year. He can play all over the diamond but probably settle 2B/3B. Guy has five tools and real upside with the stick. Not as much power as a Groshans or Martinez but possibly higher floor. Still really young. Josh Winckowski: If he stays healthy this year, he should be dominant in the FSL and perhaps NH, maybe get some love from other prospect lists. His FB is up several ticks to mid-90s, touches upper 90s. His secondaries have been polished, particularly the slider and changeup. The stuff is there, let’s see it in a higher level.

I see Keith REALLY likes Dasan Brown, good to know.

Khris Davis doesn’t bat .247 Mike Trout wins 4th MVP Tampa Bay Rays leads the AL East Mookie Dodgers miss the world series Griffin Conine proves he’s a stud Alek Manoah & Orelvis Martinez earns top 100 prospect status Blue Jays draft one of Emerson Hancock, Nick Gonzales, or Spencer Torkelson

Well one thing about Joey Murray is he doesn’t give up homers. In 137.1 IP across 3 levels last season he only gave up 10 homers, while maintaining 11.08 K/9 and 3.21 BB/9. If you’re into high spin rate guys that get strikeouts you’d like Joey Murray. Regardless of how he’s doing it, by tossing low 90s and an array of secondaries. FB movement is also important. Don’t forget Ryu is also tossing 90s, but it does help being a lefty and having impeccable control. At the end, if we’re getting a depth starter or even a bullpen piece for an 8th round pick the org has done a good job.

The funny thing is, his slider at one point was actually 92-93 mph (When he pitched in the AFL post-injury it was gunned at 92.5). During last season, he worked on it with the coaches to improve the shape & break to create more separation between the 97-102 heater and his slider, I think he also mentioned tweaking his grip. This was awhile ago. The sweet spot became 87-90 mph with better breaking action and more consistency on the delivery.

Some mocks have Hancock going as low as #5 after a poor first start to the season, it’s worth considering in the back pocket. Asa Lacy is doing very well so far and stock is rising. Torkelson may drop due to first baseman tag, position question marks also had Andrew Vaughn drop a spot or two. You really never know. The only one that seems really out of reach now is my boy Austin Martin

I really like Patrick Murphy more than most, prior to the illegal delivery shenanigans. And I think he got hurt while getting that all worked out. I hope the major injury issues are behind him. He was tossing 95-100 as a starter and often sat 97-99 deep into games. His curve has a sweeping action too and downright filthy. My only concern is the consistency on his third pitch, which is his changeup. There’s always the option he can be a high leverage reliever as a fallback option.

So far we’re looking at a pool between.. Position players: Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, Nick Gonzales, Austin Hendrick (me likey) Pitchers: Emerson Hancock, Asa Lacy, Reid Detmers (me likey), Jared Kelley

It does happen quite often. I guess it has to do prospects that get drafted, often played shortstop as an amateur. Most guys that are a little bit bigger like Groshans tend to get tagged with moving to third base by default even pre-draft. It’s a game of projections. Groshans has actually done okay as a shortstop during the time I saw him in Lansing. He played some 3B in rookie ball during the draft year, but stuck at SS last season before the foot injury. The arm is strong enough to player shortstop and third. Some larger guys have made it work like Tulo. Bichette has a better shot sticking at short, but he made the most strides defensively during double-A, you never know a year from now. In a similar conversation, Martinez and Hiraldo I haven’t seen much but will look forward to it when they reach Lansing. I hear Hiraldo’s got some jets, but he’s more likely a second baseman. Orelvis Martinez supposedly has a decent arm and has played both SS and 3B. But yeah this system is loaded with infielders, and a step down we have guys like Kevin Smith, Otto Lopez, Leonardo Jimenez, Santiago Espinal. And Even further down we have new prospects like Estiven Machado and Rikelvin de Castro.

99.9% Nolan Ryan, Nate’s childhood hero. Missed opportunity

He was around 250 in Lansing last season, now.. I don’t know. Some sites still have him @ 220 Haha I’ve seen a couple good outings from Tice. To be honest it’s just very hard to project bullpen arms, this system is really deep. I was barely able to slip in mentions for guys like Jackson Rees on my personal list

I listened to it last night, really good stuff

I start following guys that reach Lansing, sometimes Vancouver in special cases (like Kloffenstein). Once they reach NH and Buffalo I watch a lot more. Defensive profiles get established over time, sometimes go by reputation but I try to at least have some visual data to back up our claims. Kirk is an example of a guy we followed extensively from Lansing onwards last season. While this is mostly true, it goes to show how much weight is put into hit tool and production vs potential. Kirk has been very consistent offensively and walks more than he strikes out year by year. Last season he put up 173 wRC+ in Lansing (21 games) then a 153 wRC+ in Dunedin (71 games). Dude absolutely torched the Florida State League. It wasn’t by accident scouts over at BA gave him a 70 hit tool, Kirk has borderline elite pitch recognition & bat to ball skills. My only concern was he was a bit too pull-happy at times, mostly in lansing. I’ve seen enough to think if he was hitting juiced balls at triple-A, a lot of those doubles could be homers. I really like Moreno too, nice to have both.

Triple-A is featuring the recent updated MLB balls, it’s the main culprit to the HR spike in the game, along with the shifts and increasing trend of dingers or die trying approach. General feedback from triple-A players is the ball feels different especially across the seams. By adding a ball that flies off bats to small minor league stadiums (esp high altitude parks in the PCL), triple-A has turned into a HR haven. It’s almost like Coors Field but league wide. Pitchers not only need to adjust to grip & feel of the new ball, they need to adjust to previous flyball outs are now leaving the park, which forces them to tweak their approach, sequences, and pitch usage to induce more ground balls and strikeouts. In the past, a prospect can dominate double-A, and be effective in the MLB. Now they have a hurdle to leap over in triple-A.

Like Kay and many other pitchers this year, Deivi Garcia went from dominating double-A to face-planting in triple-A with the new juicy baseballs 27.1 IP, 5.93 ERA, 6.14 FIP, 1.54 WHIP, Dropped 14.59—> 8.89 K/9 HR/9 jumped 0.34—> 1.98 HR/FB % jumped 5%—> 19.4% He’s still a good prospect. But the juiced baseball thing is very real and affected pitchers across the industry. Not only does the ball fly off bats, it even feels different while gripping and spins differently from a pitchers hand. Needless to say there’s an adjustment period to the new baseballs. Garcia could probably recover from this and he’s still very young for the level, but the Yankees missed an opportunity to trade him at all-time-high value last month.

We have what, 30M in committed salaries next season? 16M active payroll and 14M Tulo retirement fund. Shapiro also said the money will be available when it’s time to spend. He was transparent enough last week to come out and say they are shopping for arms in the offseason. The payroll fluctuated between 110-160M in the past few years, which gives front office between 80M to 130M to work with, put away some of that to extend the kids and there’s still a ton of money left, Tulo’s salary will mostly be off the books in 2021. The position players are mostly locked in for years on bubble gum salaries. Either way they have a Ton of money to spend. The second wave of pitching prospects coming up are also much stronger, names we might see next season include: - Nate Pearson - Anthony Kay - Patrick Murphy - TJ Zeuch - Joey Murray - Julian Merryweather - Andrew Sopko - Yennsy Diaz - Hector Perez - Zach Logue - Jackson McClelland - Thomas Hatch

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2019-mlb-organization-talent-rankings/ Updated farm rankings for Baseball America 1. TB Rays 2. Padres 3. White Sox 4. Braves 5. Dodgers 6. Blue Jays 7. Twins 8. Marlins 9. Orioles 10. Cleveland Biggest riser: Diamondbacks 23–>16 Biggest fall: Astros 7–>15 Reason: Greinke trade + Alvarez graduation

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/kyle-glaser-mlb-prospects-chat-81319/

They both have top 100 prospect potential, Moreno has an edge in upside due to athleticism and more pop in his bat. Kirk has better plate discipline and plate approach, Moreno has superior bat to ball ability. If Kirk develops a bit more power and continues to walk for days he’s a solid MLB catcher. Right now he’s a doubles machine that walks a lot and sees a lot of pitches. Like Alan said, he also has longer track record and already proven in high-A. We jokingly compared Gabriel Moreno to JT Realmuto on a recent podcast ep, but there’s actually some similarities there. There’s a really high ceiling there if he continues to hit. I think by May 2020 we’ll see Nate Pearson, Jordan Groshans, Eric Pardinho, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Alek Manoah on the top 100 Guys that are more cusp with a chance to make it are Alejandro Kirk, Gabriel Moreno, Miguel Hiraldo, and Anthony Kay. Orelvis Martinez might also be on this list if he goes on a tear next season. Adam Kloffenstein is also developing nicely. I firmly believe Anthony Kay has solid potential and is currently underrated.

Speaking of Adam Lind’s mom, Pompey could use a visit. Maybe Smoak’s psychiatrist and a voodoo doctor would help as well from all the trauma of falling objects.

Great to see Kirk hit back to back HRs and into the palm trees, good signs. Neither were pulled too, which is where most of his extra base power comes from since his rookie-ball & lansing days. He’s been a doubles machine thus far.

Our 15th round, over-slot signing Michael Dominguez has been absurd in rookie ball. 18 years old, 1.50 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 13 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 in 7 games. 26 K in 18.0 IP They do these funky 2-3 IP rotations between a bunch of young arms in rookieball, will be interesting to see what happens when he’s given the reigns for 5+ IP