So I got ridiculed for suggesting I wouldn't trade Stroman straight up for Fernandez yesterday. Dave Cameron of FG came out with a piece on Fernandez's value so I thought I'd look at Stroman's projected value. Article can be found here http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/figuring-out-jose-fernandezs-trade-value/
When estimating Fernandez's salary for the next 3 years his total projected surplus comes in around 107 Million.
Jose Fernandez’s Contract Estimate — 3 yr / $132.6 M
Year Age WAR $/WAR Est. Value
2016 23 5.0 $8.0 M $40.0 M
2017 24 5.3 $8.4 M $44.1 M
2018 25 5.5 $8.8 M $48.5 M
Totals 15.8 $132.6 M
Marcus Stroman
Year WAR $/Win Value Cost surplus
2016 3.5 8 28 0.5 27.5
2017 3.75 8.4 31.5 5 26.5
2018 4 8.8 35.2 9 26.2
2019 4 9.3 37.2 13 24.2
2020 4 9.7 38.8 17 21.8
So I looked at Stroman's projected value over the next 5 years and he came in at a projected surplus of 126 Million. Now there is obviously is value in having the better pitcher for 3 years vs 5 because it should be pretty easy to get a 1 Win starter for less than 10 million but these estimates assume Fernandez and Stroman both stay healthy. I think there is a lot more risk in Fernandez's health than Stroman's which isn't reflected in the calculations but should be considered.
Also there is the fact that Stroman will be more likely to sign a contract extension than Fernandez who apparently wants to test FA in 3 years (Boras client). You also have to take into consideration that Stroman is one of the young stars of the franchise and that if you trade him there is going to be a ton of backlash from fans and only add to the PR mess that already is. So if you do make a deal with Stroman included, the Blue Jays probably feel that it needs to be a no brainer.