glory

That's the thing, if the new GM is going to have to do what Atkins did from 2016-18, which is try to keep the team competitive rather than take a much needed step back, then it's going to make the whole thing pointless and set the franchise back many years. You could make the argument that Atkins trying to contend in 2017-18 actually ended up hurting the current competitive window because he ended up getting jack s*** in return for players who he could have traded for value in 2017 (Donaldson, Happ, Stroman, Osuna, etc). If they are hiring a new GM, then that GM has to be able to act decisively regarding the future of the team, and not just put lipstick on a pig like Atkins had to do when transitioning from the AA core. I think the one benefit here is that a new GM in this case would be taking over a team that looks like s***. Atkins took over a team that literally revitalized a city's love of baseball. Much harder to concede a rebuild a year after the Bat Flip. Much easier, in theory, to do that after the Vlad/Bo core which I think even the fans are sick of at this point. I still think they ultimately do a half assed sell off this summer, and try again in 2025.

Yeah I've said before I think when Bo falls off it's going to come unexpectedly and there will be no fixing it. I didn't think it would happen at age 26. Hopefully he turns things around soon. I can't imagine the Dodgers would give up anything for Bo at this point.

Bonilla should not come within hand shaking distance of Don Mattingly. That should be the rule.

Yeah you don't see this team get RPs from the scrap heap and turn them around, and aside from Romano, their internal development hasn't been great in that area as well. Just looking at the pen now, they spent $21m on Green, $16m on Garcia, traded Teo coming off a 3 WAR/130 wRC+ for Swanson, Tellez for Richards/Francis, Groshans for Pop (...and Bass), and Frasso for White (DFA'd twice). They've developed Romano (good), Pearson (probably sucks), and Mayza (good in 2021 and 2023). As mentioned, their minor league relievers all looked like they had promise prior to the season but now look a lot less desirable based on performance. I think for the most part Atkins has the right idea with RPs, they are volatile year to year and you shouldn't have to commit big money/years or trade anything significant for them. He's deviated from that a bit recently (Swanson trade, Green signing), but the Jays pen was a weakness in 2021-22 so in the absence of development or finding some diamonds in the rough, they kinda had to invest in it.

The 2022 team was pretty good as well. It's easy to forget because of the comedy of errors that lead to the Game 2 collapse, but they had the 3rd best record in the AL (3rd best RD), a top 5 offense, and two Cy Young contenders in Gausman and (hard to believe) Manoah. They had 6 offensive players with a 3 WAR or higher (Jansen was at 2.7 in half a season so you can really make it 7), and 8 players with a wRC+ of 115 or better (9 if you count Merrifield's 130 PA). We thought Vlad had a down year with a 3.4 WAR and 133 wRC+. I concur that breaking up the Barrio hurt the team a lot from an entertainment standpoint. Teoscar was a poor defensive player but he was very fun to watch with a fun skill set. What happened to the Jays in 2023-24 needs to be studied. The shift in offense was staggering. They went from a team that looked like they had a deep multi year run in them to a tax paying Cleveland Guardians minus Jose Ramirez.

No doubt Atkins built a nice three year regular season run (2021-23), but he did it on the backs of expensive free agents and/or short term veterans. He deserves credit for doing well in that regard, but it's about the exact opposite way for an org to build a sustainable contender. You simply cannot be good over a long period of time with bad drafting and player development. The FA well will eventually run dry. They are already a CBT paying team for the 2nd year in a row and it's going to be the 2 worst seasons of the last 4. Their ability to throw money at issues is over, and has exposed all their weaknesses from an organizational level. As mentioned, the team essentially has no controllable players. Davis Schneider is the only one on pre-arb deal that looks like he might be a 2-3 WAR regular, and the Jays don't even view him as an everyday player based on his usage so far. Practically everyone else on the team is locked up only from 2024-26. AA intentionally built a 1-2 year window when he had one foot out the door and didn't give a s*** anymore, and that window was still almost as long as the one Atkins built (and way more successful). Atkins isn't bad, but it's going to be hard to look back on this run with any sort of fondness, even though from a regular season record standpoint it was the best 3 year run by any Jays GM other than Gillick.

This is 100% what will happen. Remember in the deadline of 2017, that was AA’s core. If Shatkins didn’t sell AA’s core at the right time, instead opting to hold them too long and get nothing back for the sake of selling tickets, then I can’t imagine they will trade their own core with any more urgency. Also, Rogers probably doesn't want a tank/rebuild in any scenario, but right after stadium renovations is a pipe dream. On top of all of that, Shapiro will have a year left on his deal after this season. If he’s going to play that out, which I’m positive he will, then he has absolutely no incentive to gut the team for the long term health of the org. He has a much greater incentive to try to win in 2025. I think at absolute most we will see the impending FAs traded. Beyond that, anyone expecting a major tear down is in for disappointment. If anything, Vlad and Bo struggling this badly makes it less likely for the team to get the assets back that would make it worth moving them, so it may not even be the best time.

I think they will 100% try to contend in 2025. Shapiro has a year left on his deal and they just did expensive stadium renovations. What they do at the deadline really depends on where they are in the standings, but if they are selling, then I think it's the impending FA's only that are moved. They'll keep Vlad, Bo, Romano, Gausman, Berrios, etc, in an effort to give it one last try next year. It's exactly how they played it during the last rebuild (2017-18) and that was with AA's core. Atkins would have dismantle his own core in this scenario, and I can't see him doing that, nor should he be allowed to be doing that. It's a weird spot to be in.

Kay, Merryweather, Waguespack, Pannone, Paulino, Perez, McKinney, Drury, Wall, Spanberger, Fisher, Hatch, Johnston, Copping. Atkins doing the selling is kinda terrifying. There was Teoscar and Espinal in that group though, as well as SWR, so not all bad. The key is whether the Jays will actually trade guys one year too early rather than one year too late. It was mostly the latter during the last rebuild.

Finally another Vlad HR.

Jansen is definitely the best catcher of the 3 overall. Just extend him and hope he stays healthy.

Or it could be a mutual love fest for Biggio between the FO and manager. I really don't get it. He's about the most ordinary 1 WARish player you will find. He's fine as a cheap bench option, but no team should be benching better players to get him into the lineup on a consistent basis. Just play DS everyday and live with the consequences. He's done nothing but hit since he's come up. He's a win for the FO. A late round draft pick turned into MLB regular. Take the W, Atkins.

His last name and the fact that JS managed him in the minors. I can’t think of any other reason why he’s playing over DS and Clement.

Is there any other (well run) team that would have Davis Schneider fall on their laps and bench him as much as the Jays have?

Yeah, this org promoted Don Mattingly this season. No chance they are on par with the top orgs in baseball in this category. I'm sure they have their own internal analytics and all that, but clearly whatever they have been doing since 2023 hasn't worked, and I wouldn't hold my breath on a team who intentionally gave Donnie Baseball more say in offensive strategy to be cutting edge on anything.

It will be Mattingly. It should be Hale if anyone already on the bench as he's worked under Francona and Gibby, so maybe there's a decent manager in there, but Atkins seems like the type who needs knee pads and chapstick every time he's in the same room with Donnie Baseball. It's only a matter of time.

As others have said it’s definitely the Dodgers. Not sure what the Jays could get for him though especially with him struggling like this. Vlad’s market is probably the Mariners and Padres. Can’t really think of anyone else.

JS being snippy to the media means he knows he's f***ed.

Corbin about to put up a quality start. Not quite sure this is rock bottom but feels that way. This offense is dog s***.

This was Barger's first taste of big league pitching, and 3 of the 5 games he started were at a position he had never played before. Not sure I'd read anything into that at all. Maybe he does suck defensively but I wouldn't use his big league time in LF as a barometer for that. I don't think "sustained contention" is possible with this group anymore so it really doesn't matter at this point, but if sustained contention is the goal, then you kinda have to incorporate prospects onto the team during competitive windows. Davis Schneider hit like prime Barry Bonds last season and they were salivating for his first cold streak so they could bench him for Biggio. I can't imagine Barger and Orelvis will be given much of a shot while the team is desperate to make the playoffs. If things start to fall off and 2024 becomes a wash, then maybe we will see more sustained playing time.

Agreed completely. The 2023-24 Jays are not only not fun, but they are also incredibly frustrating to watch even when they win. I actually enjoyed 2022 for the most part (the Raimel Tapia man crush by management aside). A team that can mash is far more enjoyable to watch, and it helped that the team had far more personality. The 2023-24 teams are like devoid of any personality at all. A team full of Randal Grichuk's and Whit Merrifield's. I believe it was opening day 2022 where the Jays went down like 7-0 and came back and won. Not only did they win, but you got the sense early on that they were never out of the game. If the 2023-24 Jays go down 2-0 in the 1st, it feels like the game is out of reach. Basically, if the 2023-24 teams were more fun to watch, with players that we would long associate as Jays, then maybe people would not be as hard on the FO. But boring and frustrating? Ugh.

This season might end up resembling 2017 in a lot of ways if things continue to go south. Everyone saw the end of a competitive window, except the GM/president/owner who saw 3 million asses in the seats the year before and didn't want to mess with that. The Jays should have started the rebuild at the trade deadline in 2017 but decided to start it a year later, and it destroyed the trade returns they got because of it. I wouldn't be surprised if history repeats itself here with the Jays giving it "one last shot" in 2025 and only selling if that fails. For the sake of the Jays org short and long term, I hope they turn things around this season, because if they don't and they go into 2025 the same way they went into 2018, then it's going to set them back big time.

The thing with Bichette is that his profile is so risky that he’s a player I could easily seeing falling off a cliff with no warning. Not saying I expect it to happen this season but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he did.

Yeah it’s hard to see why he’d stay unless he’s determined to win a World Series here and is willing to wait a while to go through the building process again. Seems unlikely. The farm system isn’t in good shape and the big league team doesn’t look like a real playoff contender, and if Shapiro were to stay for a rebuild, then he’d have to eat the criticism of declining attendance right after an expensive stadium renovation. I just don’t see the upside for him, especially since he will have options if he were to leave. I don’t know if I trust Rogers to hire a competent replacement (Kenny Williams is available now which is terrifying) but we might be headed down that road.

It depends on how much influence, if any, Shapiro has on baseball decisions. I don't think it's 100%, but it's not 0% either, so hard to say. Shapiro's Cleveland run as a GM was pretty trash aside from 2007. The year before he became CLE GM, they drew 3.4m in attendance. His final year as CLE GM they were at 1.4m. It was pretty much a decade of dog s*** (again aside from 2007 where they made it to Game 7 of the ALCS). He was promoted in 2011-15, but much like the current situation, it's hard to say how much influence he still had on their baseball decisions by that point. I think it's fair to question Shapiro's track record. He's done some good things in Toronto, but as far as we know, none of that has been on the field. It's been other things (payroll, Dunedin, etc).