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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. glory
    My guess is that it doesn't happen and Vlad enters the season as an impending FA. Arbitrary deadline aside, is there any real incentive for either side to cave at this point? Vlad can wait a year and test the open market, while the Jays have a lame duck front office that has no reason to care about keeping Vlad beyond 2025. There are also strong baseball reasons to avoid a $500-600M contract for Vlad, assuming that's what he's looking for. Tough spot for the front office, but this is one FO that doesn't seem to care about optics, so I don't think they budge unless it's a level of risk they are comfortable with.
  2. glory
    After last winter where Atkins spent real dollars on 0-1 WAR junk, I'd have no issues with someone like Roden making the team out of ST as long as he's earned it as opposed to trying to find a useful vet in the scrap heap portion of free agency.
  3. glory
    Yeah 3/90 in present day value makes the deal a lot better for the Red Sox even with the opt outs. Bregman should still be a solid player over the next 3 years so even if he doesn't opt out it's not a major problem at that AAV. Curious to see what the deferrals looked like, if any, on his 6/170 offer. I don't think he's touching $170M over the next 6 years even if he opts out after 2025, or at least it's not a guarantee. If you assume he doesn't opt out at all, then he makes $120M (not factoring deferrals) over 3 years. To get to $170M, he'd need to sign a deal for at least 3/50 at age 34. I mean, maybe that's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it. The decision to go with a higher AAV/lower years deal looked like a smart one, but less so with the deferrals factored in. He must have really wanted to go to the Red Sox.
  4. glory
    As a 2B, assuming he’s average or better there, I think Wagner is fine. It’s the fact that he’s assumed to be the DH with a near 120 wRC+ projection that seems way too optimistic for me. Hopefully I’m wrong on that. Davidi mentioned that he’ll get looks at 3B this spring. Wagner looking like even an average defensive 3B would be a great outcome for the Jays as that would make the roster construction a lot better (Wagner/Clement platoon at 3B), but I have my doubts that he will look average there. Maybe the Jays view him as a more of a bat first utility player anyway, and will use him as such.
  5. glory
    Yeah with that AAV (depending on deferrals) I don’t think it’s a lock that Bregman opts out. He just had a 4 WAR season and teams were reluctant to give him big years. Not sure what changes a year from now when he’s 32. A $40M 2B showing signs of offensive decline already doesn’t seem like the best investment but maybe the Sox get lucky. I’m just glad it’s over and we can move on with the off season now without the Alonso/Bregman nonsense. Hopefully there’s a shrewd trade out there.
  6. glory
    Am I the only one who thinks the Wagner 2025 projections are very optimistic? If he's a 2B then fine, but at DH, I'm not sure that's the way to go. Of course if they stick with internal options then they don't have many other options. Just take whoever rakes in ST between Wagner, Martinez, Barger, Roden, etc.
  7. glory
    Curious to see what the years are if the Jays and Vlad do agree on a deal. A 10 year extension would take him through age 36. An 11 year extension takes him through age 37. You're still likely to see some dead money in that scenario, but no where near the "AJ Preller on a coke binge" type of contracts that the Padres were handing out a couple of years ago. I think the ideal scenario might be a big extension with an opt out after year 4 or 5 so Vlad can hit the market again at age 30 or 31. At that point you hope he opts out so you get the best remaining years of his career without the back end.
  8. glory
    Yeah the Jays financial picture is pretty solid, especially for a luxury tax paying team. If Berrios opts out (spoiler: he won't) then it's even better. Either way, the front office hasn't gone bonkers trying to field a contender even when their jobs are (presumably) on the line so it's a team that should have an easier time pivoting if 2025 were to go south.
  9. glory
    Ke'Bryan Hayes must be really injured because that's a Ross Atkins trade if I've ever seen one.
  10. glory
    Between the lack of impact talent available in the FA market aside from a bad-contract-waiting-to-happen in Bregman, and the fact that the Jays do have a little bit of MiLB depth that they can move from (Buffalo infielders), this is probably the best way to go. I can't imagine it will be Luis Robert unless the team is willing to gut the top end of their already mid farm system, but I'm sure there are options out there where it wouldn't take much and the player coming back has some upside/impact potential.
  11. glory
    Robert is 27 with 3 more years of reasonable control. Only issue is the floor is low with the high ceiling, so you don’t really know what you’re going to get. I’d have no issues moving Tiedemann for him. Of course it’s unclear what the White Sox would actually ask for. As mentioned, only prospect I’d miss if traded is Nimmala. Everyone else is fair game.
  12. glory
    I still think the trade route is the way to go. Bregman has more suitors than Alonso so unless the Jays offer is significantly better than everyone else, it’s likely a long shot. Luis Robert, Luis Arraez, Adolis Garcia, Jesus Sanchez….someone should be available and reasonably priced to acquire.
  13. glory
    Curious if there is a trade out there for a hitter. The RP market still has useful arms so that’s a more likely way to add impact to this roster. Bregman obviously is a great fit for what the Jays need but 6 years for a 31 year old is a long damn time.
  14. glory
    The home runs would have been nice but realistically it wasn’t a great fit, especially if Vlad had to play a lot of 3B. That’s a great price for the Mets, though.
  15. glory
    That's a great tweet by Hector. "The wait will soon be over" works whether Vlad signs or doesn't. Either Vlad signs and that tweet was breaking some insider knowledge, or Vlad doesn't sign and Hector was just saying that we will know soon enough because Vlad's deadline is coming up. He can't be wrong either way. When it comes to engagement farming, that was well done.
  16. glory
    Yeah I don't get the complaining about the high payroll. Who cares if the Jays have a $290M payroll as long as they make the playoffs even as a WC team? The 2014 team was in a WC spot at the trade deadline and sat on their hands because Rogers didn't want to increase payroll even slightly. Those days weren't fun. Rogers realizes that spending excessively is the only way to contend in 2025. They had too many holes to fill and not enough internal help. The fact that they are doing it is a great thing, for short term and the future. Maybe it works and we see post season play in 2025. If it doesn't then they'll trade a bunch of guys in July to get below the thresholds.
  17. glory
    It would have to be an opt out after year 1 given his age, but realistically would he opt out of a guaranteed 5 more years at age 32 even if he had another 4+ WAR season? I feel like the opt out is pointless in this case, unless he has an MVP season in 2025 or something. Teams are reluctant to sign him due to age + term, not money or the QO. The former is going to be even worse when he's a year older in 2026. I mean, if it's a 6 year deal, Bregman has a 5 WAR season and then opts out, then that would be perfect for the Jays, but that also seems pretty unlikely. If the Jays actually do have a 6 year offer for him, then they are obviously fine taking that risk. He's a well above average bat who rarely strikes out and plays great defense at a position the Jays don't have a long term solution at anywhere in the org. I could see the logic. Just have to be prepared for Springer 2.0.
  18. glory
    The Jays saw diminishing returns on Springer’s contract by year 3 of 6, and he wasn’t showing any sign of decline when signed. Bregman for the same term sounds like a really bad idea. I guess it’s good for 2025, which might be the intention especially if they can’t sign Vlad, but it’s likely going to age poorly. Kinda hoping for Alonso for that reason, best case he opts out after 2025, worst case it’s a Bellinger situation with the Cubs.
  19. glory
    If it takes a $300M payroll to make the playoffs and hopefully win a few playoff games in the process, then so be it. No shame in being the AL version of the 2022-24 Phillies, as long as it works. As of now this is still an easy roster to pivot off of in July if things go south (Vlad, Bo, Bassitt, Max, Green all FA’s and tradable). That still applies even if they extend Vlad. However I think one more add to the lineup puts the Jays in a good position to contend for a WC spot at the minimum, so hopefully they aren’t done.
  20. glory
    Shi Davidi initially wrote in an article that Straw's money didn't count against the CBT, but apparently edited the article later to include this: "This is a corrected version of the original story, which erroneously stated that Myles Straw’s salary doesn’t count against the CBT. Straw’s salary does, in fact, count against the CBT." Davidi has been taking L's all winter, so add another one. I was hoping he was right but unfortunately not. Probably increases the chances of Straw being put on the 40 man at some point.
  21. glory
    Awesome. If Max can give the Jays 100-130 innings then I think he's worth this deal easily. Hopefully he has one more good season in him.
  22. glory
  23. glory
    Kim is going to miss the first month of the season, and with a shoulder injury you never know how quickly the bat is going to return to form. Seems like teams had similar levels of concern given what he signed for. This seems like more of a 2026 move for the Rays, though obviously they probably won't mind if he opts out since it would mean his 2025 was good enough to do so.
  24. glory
    Kim is signing with the Rays so cross him off the list.
  25. glory
    I could live with Arraez if they didn't have to give up much to get him. There is not much else left in free agency that is realistic now that Profar is gone (would have been an ideal fallback option), and Arraez would only be a one year commitment at age 28, so maybe you can dream on a high 2's or 3 WAR in a contract year. Obviously if you could aim higher (Robert) then go for it, but that's probably wishful thinking. An Arraez/Scherzer combo wouldn't be terrible. Maybe put Orelvis at 3B (if his defense is passable) so you at least have an extra power threat in there to compensate for a singles hitting DH, but not sure his contact skills are MLB ready yet.
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