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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. glory
    That's a great tweet by Hector. "The wait will soon be over" works whether Vlad signs or doesn't. Either Vlad signs and that tweet was breaking some insider knowledge, or Vlad doesn't sign and Hector was just saying that we will know soon enough because Vlad's deadline is coming up. He can't be wrong either way. When it comes to engagement farming, that was well done.
  2. glory
    Yeah I don't get the complaining about the high payroll. Who cares if the Jays have a $290M payroll as long as they make the playoffs even as a WC team? The 2014 team was in a WC spot at the trade deadline and sat on their hands because Rogers didn't want to increase payroll even slightly. Those days weren't fun. Rogers realizes that spending excessively is the only way to contend in 2025. They had too many holes to fill and not enough internal help. The fact that they are doing it is a great thing, for short term and the future. Maybe it works and we see post season play in 2025. If it doesn't then they'll trade a bunch of guys in July to get below the thresholds.
  3. glory
    It would have to be an opt out after year 1 given his age, but realistically would he opt out of a guaranteed 5 more years at age 32 even if he had another 4+ WAR season? I feel like the opt out is pointless in this case, unless he has an MVP season in 2025 or something. Teams are reluctant to sign him due to age + term, not money or the QO. The former is going to be even worse when he's a year older in 2026. I mean, if it's a 6 year deal, Bregman has a 5 WAR season and then opts out, then that would be perfect for the Jays, but that also seems pretty unlikely. If the Jays actually do have a 6 year offer for him, then they are obviously fine taking that risk. He's a well above average bat who rarely strikes out and plays great defense at a position the Jays don't have a long term solution at anywhere in the org. I could see the logic. Just have to be prepared for Springer 2.0.
  4. glory
    The Jays saw diminishing returns on Springer’s contract by year 3 of 6, and he wasn’t showing any sign of decline when signed. Bregman for the same term sounds like a really bad idea. I guess it’s good for 2025, which might be the intention especially if they can’t sign Vlad, but it’s likely going to age poorly. Kinda hoping for Alonso for that reason, best case he opts out after 2025, worst case it’s a Bellinger situation with the Cubs.
  5. glory
    If it takes a $300M payroll to make the playoffs and hopefully win a few playoff games in the process, then so be it. No shame in being the AL version of the 2022-24 Phillies, as long as it works. As of now this is still an easy roster to pivot off of in July if things go south (Vlad, Bo, Bassitt, Max, Green all FA’s and tradable). That still applies even if they extend Vlad. However I think one more add to the lineup puts the Jays in a good position to contend for a WC spot at the minimum, so hopefully they aren’t done.
  6. glory
    Shi Davidi initially wrote in an article that Straw's money didn't count against the CBT, but apparently edited the article later to include this: "This is a corrected version of the original story, which erroneously stated that Myles Straw’s salary doesn’t count against the CBT. Straw’s salary does, in fact, count against the CBT." Davidi has been taking L's all winter, so add another one. I was hoping he was right but unfortunately not. Probably increases the chances of Straw being put on the 40 man at some point.
  7. glory
    Awesome. If Max can give the Jays 100-130 innings then I think he's worth this deal easily. Hopefully he has one more good season in him.
  8. glory
  9. glory
    Kim is going to miss the first month of the season, and with a shoulder injury you never know how quickly the bat is going to return to form. Seems like teams had similar levels of concern given what he signed for. This seems like more of a 2026 move for the Rays, though obviously they probably won't mind if he opts out since it would mean his 2025 was good enough to do so.
  10. glory
    Kim is signing with the Rays so cross him off the list.
  11. glory
    I could live with Arraez if they didn't have to give up much to get him. There is not much else left in free agency that is realistic now that Profar is gone (would have been an ideal fallback option), and Arraez would only be a one year commitment at age 28, so maybe you can dream on a high 2's or 3 WAR in a contract year. Obviously if you could aim higher (Robert) then go for it, but that's probably wishful thinking. An Arraez/Scherzer combo wouldn't be terrible. Maybe put Orelvis at 3B (if his defense is passable) so you at least have an extra power threat in there to compensate for a singles hitting DH, but not sure his contact skills are MLB ready yet.
  12. glory
    If the Jays get Scherzer, then my one wish is for there to be a situation where Max is cruising for like 2.2 innings and Schneider comes to take him out early because of analytics.
  13. glory
    Kim is going to miss the start of the season, and much like Varsho, it's probably going to be an adjustment for him once he gets back due to the nature of the injury. If it's a longer term/reasonable AAV type of deal then it makes more sense, but for 2025, not sure that's the best way to maximize wins. At least not the safest way. It wouldn't surprise me if the backup plan is Arraez. The Padres financial/ownership situation isn't good and I don't think it would take much to get him.
  14. glory
    I think that's what it would be, taking a chance on an oft-injured former top prospect who has had MLB success but hasn't been consistent and has been hurt too much. I can't imagine it's going to cost that much on a 1 year deal. If it fails, then move on to Clement or whoever, but the Jays need stuff like this to break in their favor if they want to contend.
  15. glory
    Robert Murray on his podcast today said that he never got the sense that Alonso to the Jays was ever close (referring to the “10 yard line” quote). So there’s a very good chance a lot of the social media buzz is BS. Apologies for doubting Winnie the Pooh and the other sources with 50 followers.
  16. glory
    Sign a SP and go internal offensively (Barger, Orelvis, Wagner, Roden, etc...whoever rakes in Spring Training). Not sure that's the best way to go if 2025 is a contention year, but wasting money on marginal 1 WAR position players is what the team did last winter and it's not going to help them short or long term. I wouldn't mind a buy low on Moncada at 3B since it should be cheap or a trade for someone like Jesus Sanchez with the hopes of his exit velo/barrels/bat speed having breakout potential, but beyond that, if it's not Alonso/Bregman/Robert, then I don't think there's a real difference maker out there. Just go internal and live with the consequences.
  17. glory
    Agreed it's probably not a smart signing, especially with the opt outs, and it's certainly not a logical position fit, but I think it's just the best of what's out there as far as making the 2025 team as strong as possible. Boras had a bunch of clients who signed the 1+1(+1) deals last winter, two of them opted out/would have opted out (Snell/Chapman) and three opted in (Bellinger, Montgomery, Hoskins). Alonso is probably a 50/50 opt in for 2026. Teams are smarter now so they won't be fooled by home runs alone. He'll have to have a great season. Would have to know what the alternative to Alonso. If it's a sensible trade for Robert, then I'd go that route. If it's Austin Hays, then just sign Alonso.
  18. glory
    As of now Vlad is an impending FA, and if Alonso were to sign here he'd likely have a player opt out after 2025, so I doubt either one of them would want to DH regularly. An Alonso signing would probably mean Vlad is playing 3B at least somewhat regularly. They'd have to weigh that against not signing Alonso (or being unable to) and having to find someone. At this rate the Vlad/Alonso pair is probably the best thing they can realistically pull off, unless they can trade for Luis Robert or something, which would be preferable depending on what it would take.
  19. glory
    Spending 2 full seasons targeting players who couldn't hit but played great defense in an effort to double/triple down on run prevention, only to enter what appears to be a lameduck season prepared to have Alonso at 1B, Vlad at 3B, and Santander in LF is the Ross Atkins babyface turn that no one expected. I'm down. Still need to see it to believe it, as Boras is a master manipulator, but at least Atkins has been targeting legitimate impact this winter.
  20. glory
    My takeaway from that is that 1) the Mets don't care if Alonso comes back or not (it will have to be on their terms), and 2) Alonso will probably still be a free agent by the time every player on every team is in camp.
  21. glory
    Robert would be a nice trade target but hard to see the Jays having the prospect capital to get it done, though the White Sox aren’t exactly the best run organization. I forgot Bregman was still out there. I still want no part of him on a long term deal, and I would imagine the Jays don’t either. Santander had to defer like 60% of his contract to get the Jays to go to a 5th year so not sure they’d want to big years on Bregman who is older and already showing signs of decline. Sounds like the Astros may still have interest in him, which seems like the most logical fit if that’s the case.
  22. glory
    I think this is the most likely scenario. No reason for the Mets not to do a 3 year deal with opt outs. The question is where do the Jays pivot to if/when that happens? Profar would have been ideal but that option is gone now. Not much else available in free agency. I guess they'd invest in the rotation (which they need to do anyway) and maybe try to find a trade piece for the offense.
  23. glory
    Martino is actually credible when it comes to the Mets/Yankees so I wouldn't dismiss what he's saying, but could be info he's getting from Boras (who usually uses Heyman for his media manipulating). The fact that the Jays local media never take the time to squash rumors, even when fans are giddy with unrealistic hope, but are doing so now is interesting.
  24. glory
    Atkins actually using the local media to his advantage to counteract Boras using the Mets media for leverage. Being embarrassed by Sasaki has changed Ross.
  25. glory
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