glory

Roden is 25 and likely projects as a platoon corner OF. Worrying about his service time seems pretty unnecessary. With Varsho starting on the IL, I'm not sure which direction they go in at this point. Straw is not on the 40 man, Lukes probably isn't a CF defensively, and Berroa is basically Straw. None of those options are ideal. If Roden can even cosplay as a CF for a few innings a game (sub out late), then that's probably the best way to go.

Springer hits a HR: Spring Training doesn't matter. Barger hits a HR (106 mph EV, 409 feet): Breakout szn.

I think there is a very good chance Springer is released sometime mid season. This front office has a reputation of treating veteran players really well, so I would imagine they will give him a ton of rope and undeserved time higher in the batting order, but enough will be enough at some point, especially if Roden is killing it in AAA. It just sucks that we will probably have to wait until Springer has a 58 wRC+ in his first 200 PA before we see a move. I'm still holding out hope on the 2% chance he's traded (with the Jays kicking in damn near all of his money) to the Astros before the start of the season.

Wagner being able to adequately cover 3B, 2B, and 1B gives him a ton of value if his bat plays up to projections.

Shapiro also said the same thing in his press conference a few weeks ago, saying that Ed was personally involved in the process, as was Tony Staffieri, and that deals of this magnitude ($$ and years) can't be done without an owner being involved.

Davis Schneider home run off Aaron Nola (106 EV). He had a quote recently talking about how he was trying to hit singles last season which wasn't his game, and he's going back to trying to do "damage". Would be nice if he has a bounce back season.

I think 5 sunk years would be the best case scenario. A 14-15 year deal would take Vlad into his 40's, so it's more likely the Jays would get around 7-8 sunk years (if you assume decline usually begins around 32-33), and possibly more considering his track record, conditioning, etc. There's absolutely zero upside for the Jays making a deal like that. If their place on the win curve was a lot higher from 2026-30, then maybe you could squint hard to rationalize it, but they may have to start a rebuild with or without Vlad next season, so his best remaining seasons post 2025 (if they happen with the Jays) may not even benefit the team all that much. Let him test free agency. Or trade him at the deadline if the team is out of it. Or turn back time and trade him in July 2024.

A Springer trade for an equally bad contract is the way to go. They have internal replacements for him, and there's a good chance he's cooked, but finding another contract to match up with that makes sense for both sides will be the issue. Montgomery would make a lot of sense for the Jays even though it would clog up the rotation. A real s***** contract is Taijuan Walker, and the Phillies probably could use a 4th OF, but I'm not sure what the Jays could realistically do with Walker except put him in long relief and hope his stuff plays up. He's likely just as cooked as Springer is. At this point give GS a month or two and see if there's a dead cat bounce in him, but they better be prepared to pivot very quickly if he looks washed. The Jays schedule early on is brutal so they can't really afford to have an automatic out batting high in the lineup because of vetrin presents.

Yeah there's no reason to manipulate Roden's service time. He's already 25 and he's not going to be a superstar or anything. The team could easily find playing time for him at the big league level by cycling Roden, Taters, and Springer between DH/LF/RF but I don't think they actually want to do that. It's possible Tony and/or Springer don't want to DH much, and the Jays have a great reputation with veteran players over the years largely because they kowtow to them. Wagner probably makes more sense to them as a primary DH since he's not a good defensive player anywhere and has versatility (2B, 1B, 3B), and Barger can (cos)play 3B, so between that and already being on the 40 man roster, he might have the edge over Roden as well. Realistically, the main road block for Roden's path is Springer.

My point was exactly what I typed out there. He’s going to regress from what he showed last season but hopefully still ends up a serviceable #5 starter, which won’t be a big deal if the top 4 hold up their end.

Francis likely overachieved last season. There will be some regression there. Hopefully it's not significant regression, but I think the expectation for him should be a lot closer to #5 starter than anything beyond that. Which is fine if the top 4 are good to very good.

Yeah no one is outbidding Cohen on a player that he desperately wants. That doesn't apply to players he might not care for as much and wants more fiscal responsibility involved (ex. Jays outbidding the Mets for Springer). He also employs Stearns now, who isn't going to throw money away for no reason like previous GM's. If Cohen wants Vlad, then that's where Vlad will end up. Not sure he would want Vlad that much, but who knows. There will be enough big market teams involved to drive up the price (Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, etc, could all use him) but I'm not sure anyone will break the bank for him ala Soto. A big 2025 might change that. As is, I'd be pretty surprised if anyone gives $500M to a 1B/DH only player, not even factoring the lack of elite track record.

Yeah the Jays should not budge on what they (allegedly) last offered. That was not only fair to the player, but probably hurtful to the team in the long run (price of getting the player), so if he doesn't circle back to that then let him test free agency and see what the market says.

Yeah last season he had a fantastic July, but was basically ass the rest of the year, and the Jays kept trotting him out there because of vetrin presents. Curious to see what happens this season if he has a wRC+ in the 60's in June like he did last year. Depth isn't an excuse as Barger and Roden can both play RF, and Roden can play LF with Tony sliding over to RF. One of the downsides of long term contracts to vets who are clearly washed is that they'll keep trotting them out there despite the sunk cost. If he doesn't bounce back then the Jays better be prepared to have a quicker hook with him.

No way a Kirk extension should approach $20M AAV. He should definitely be extended though. The catching depth in the system is beyond trash. If the Jays are selling at the deadline then maybe they trade for a “catcher of the future” but if their goal is sustainable contention then at some point they’ll need to have a young player on a team friendly extension. Shapiro clearly doesn’t have the “sell your prime away for these magic beans” mind tricks that AA has.

Vlad probably thought he was worth a top 5-10 contract after 2022-23. I don't think a 3 WAR season is going to stop him from overvaluing himself. The best case scenario for the Jays, regardless of how the team as a whole does, is Vlad having a monster season. That means the Jays are either in contention or can trade him at max value (whatever that means for a rental nowadays) at the deadline.

Yeah whatever you think about Roden or Barger, I think being better than 2023-24 Springer isn't a high bar, so curious to see how much rope they give George this season. Best case scenario is a dead cat bounce, but in the event that he's the same ~100 wRC+/1.5 WAR player he's been for two years now (or worse), they need to be prepared to pull the plug a lot sooner since there are actual options to replace him now.

That's why I'm baffled that the likely scenario is starting Roden in AAA. Maybe he's being overhyped right now, but really, look at the names ahead of him on the depth chart. Springer is 35 and has a 100 wRC+ over the last two seasons. Wagner while he had intriguing Statcast data in limited 2024 action, is still a player with no position and limited power. Kirk and Gimenez over the last two seasons are ~90-95 wRC+ bats. Clement had a 2% walk rate last season and Statcast page as blue as the ocean in many important offensive categories. If there's any time to take a gamble on Roden, Martinez, whoever, it's now. Even if it fails.

Man, Springer batting 4th and Gimenez batting 5th is kinda disgusting. I know the options are limited, but really illustrates the amount of luck/bounce backs/player development the Jays are going to need to contend.

I don’t see how they keep Roden off at this point. They haven’t signed a vetrin to occupy DH like they did last winter so it shouldn’t be too difficult to find playing time for him.

The entire Cole contract ordeal was a huge red flag. After 2024 he had the opportunity to opt out of the last 4 years on his deal, and he did. The Yankees had the option of voiding the opt out by adding a guaranteed 5th year, and they chose not to. Then Cole agreed to stay with the Yankees for the exact same amount that he opted out of. When a Boras client operates that way, that’s a very telling sign. Will Warren might be a breakout candidate this season and the Yankees do pretty well with pitching development (mostly on the RP side) so they might be able to get by, but without Cole and Gil will be tough.

I don't think the CBA/impending lockout is going to impact Vlad's situation. The lockout will be after the 2026 season, and Vlad will be a FA after 2025, so it will likely be business as usual this coming winter and he's going to get a market value deal with another elite season in 2025. The question is, what is or will be his market value in 9 months if he has another elite season? My guess is that no team is insane enough to give $600M to a 1B, but maybe that changes if he has consecutive great seasons for the first time ever. All it takes is one GM. Manfred basically admitted that off-season lockouts will be the new norm during CBA negotiations (not sure why he'd say that publicly), but I think that will impact the FA's after the 2026 season more than Vlad and Bo. In other words, don't expect Berrios to be opting out of 2/50 (he probably wasn't going to regardless but certainly not with a looming lockout). Vlad's still going to get his money. It's just a question of which side is closer to his true market value. My guess is the Jays are, but again, all it takes is one GM.

Sounds like his initial ask was 15 years and over $600M, and he lowered it to something like 14/585 (based on the total value Ortiz brought up a few weeks ago). Having Vlad under contract for big money at age 40-41 seems like a really, really bad idea. We might be saying that for his early-30's, so his 40's is insanity.

I don't see Jimenez making it. The only positions he plays are SS and 2B, and I can't imagine either Bo or Gimenez will get too many off days. DS definitely looks like he's making it, and will platoon against LHP. Obviously they will have a backup catcher and 4th OF who can cover CF (one of Straw, Loperfido, Berroa, or Lukes). That leaves one extra spot with no obvious solution. Maybe Stefanic makes the team, he's another player you have to factor into the Buffalo lineup, but he's also someone you can stash on a big league bench and not have to worry about lack of playing time. Of course, that means a 40 man roster spot, in addition to Straw needing one if it comes to that.