glory

Exactly. You don't have to draft every player you develop. Kluber, Carrasco, and Bauer (among others) were essentially prospects when they were acquired. They turned into what they are now in the Indians org. As the Jays have proven, you can have great scouts who make great picks but those players may not be developed properly or traded. The key is being able to identify talent, acquire it, and then put them in the best position to pan out. Drafting it would be the best way but it's not the only way.

The Donaldson trade was an outlier. He wasn't going to make those types of trades consistently, if ever again (Beane had one of the biggest brainfarts in recent memory). In that case, you have to look at the things he's more likely to do on a consistent basis, and that's where you evaluate his ability to develop talent, to give players the best chance to succeed, to factor in service time/options for the betterment of the team long-term, to acquire talent in general (does he look at WAR now, framing, defense, etc), and so on. Unless he had a trade lined up for Mike Trout or something (equivalent of Donaldson trade), he's not a guy I'd want to have around to build on 2015 and help them bridge to 2017-beyond in the best way possible. Shapiro/Atkins at least have the right mindset.

Shapiro/Atkins + top 10 payroll is going to be fun to watch.

Let's see if Shapiro can win with what Gillick left him before drawing any conclusions one way or the other.

He signed Martin and the clueless Toronto media started parroting the values of framing immediately afterwards so it's possible he wasn't the same imbecile he was the previous five years when he valued HR, ERA, and track teams. Still, there was enough wrong with what he did last season (starting the year with 6 rookies, trading more prospects for vets, ending the season with 3 starters in MLB and AAA combined, etc) that I'm glad he left before it got worse. He will forever be respected for getting Donaldson but I'll be damned if I retcon five years of mediocrity just because of the final two months of 2015.

I be hatin', yo. Players never age or decline. Teams never win with prospectz. Depth don't matter. Why develop prospects when you can burn options, start their service clock, and stunt their development at an early age? Cheers to short-term success! I miss AA already.

Rogers wanted to get rid of AA in January of last year when they tampered in an attempt to get Kenny Williams and Dan Duquette. The writing was already on the wall at that point. I think it's possible AA's beef wasn't with Shapiro at all, but rather with Rogers. Shapiro was the replacement that was going to come in regardless. If it wasn't him, it would have been someone else that had no connection to AA. I think Shapiro prefers having Atkins rather than Alex. THat's just common sense. He's familiar with Atkins and knows he can work with him and they have the same ideas on how to build an organization. He may have been able to live with AA as the GM, but AA wasn't exactly saber-friendly nor did he care about important things like options, service time, development, etc. It was a poor match. In the end, I think the real beef was AA and Rogers. Not that I care. I'm happy with Shapiro/Atkins, and thought AA was a year away from pulling an Amaro, so he left at the right time. Everyone is better off.

Re-signing Bautista and Edwin becomes way more realistic if you move one or both of Tulo and Martin. That's really the only way. I'm not saying whether it's smart or not, but you can't fit five $20m players on a $140m payroll. Even $150m is pushing it.

I don't mind bringing them back, although you would have to factor a decline towards the end of each deal. The issue is fitting them into a "modest" payroll and mitigating any decline from them (and Martin/Tulo) by adding talent around them. Bringing them back and expecting them to perform like they did in their primes is asking for disappointment. They will fall off. That's what happens to most players in their late 30's. Maybe it will be gradual, it might be injury related, etc, but it will happen. Shapiro/Atkins are smart, they'll make the right call and offer what they think is fair. I just don't want to be in a situation where the Jays are so front loaded on contracts to players in their 30's that it prevents them from improving. Spending $130m on seven players in 2017 runs that risk. But I do agree that with the way free agency has gone this season, and the team's refusal (rightfully) to trade prospects that it will be hard for the Jays to replace those guys for the same cost. I was going to say maybe they can sign someone like Josh Reddick to a smaller deal in lieu of signing one of them but in this market what the hell is a smaller deal? It's a tough spot to be in. I still think the Jays end up losing one or both. We will see.

I guess it depends on how they project each player to age. Four years for players of that age is pretty risky. Not only that, but they'd be entering 2017 with five players making $100m, and then 2018 with those same five players making more than $100m (factoring what should be some type of record arbitration figure for Donaldson). Ownership would really have to go above and beyond what they've already committed to keep those guys and have enough resources to add talent around them. They'll need to replace the main pieces of the bullpen (Cecil/Storen), 2/5's of the rotation (Dickey/Chavez), among other things. If you have five players making $100m, and then Estrada making $14.5m, and then Happ making $13m, and so on, it's going to get complicated. If the Jays had to re-sign one, I think they would prioritize Bautista (better player, in better shape, etc), but I think bringing back one is probably the best case.

Bautista on a four year deal after this season would cover ages 36-39 and Edwin for the same length would cover ages 34-37. I find it very hard to believe that this regime would pay those guys $20m a year over those ages when you're looking at a realistic drop in performance. Maybe they re-sign one of them if the right deal comes along, or one of the players has trouble finding the right suitor in free agency, but I'm heading into 2016 expecting this to be the last season for both guys in Toronto. This is one of the few times where "Alex would have tried to do it" would actually be a realistic narrative. I don't think Shapiro + Atkins will go that route. This screams "Dave Dombrowski", though. At least one will end up in Boston, likely by Dombrowski bidding against himself.

Saunders will start as long as he is healthy. Atkins quote seems to think he will be ready but I still have doubts. People probably think Pompey will get the bulk of the time because they don't believe Saunders will stay healthy enough to keep the job.

We learned that John Gibbons isn't the only person on the planet who thinks Sanchez is like Betances. At least Gibby won't be lonely anymore.

If the facts are centered around ERA and opponents BA, then I don't want to get them straight. He's a good reliever. If you think he's lights out or a late inning guy, at least based on his current performance, then we will just agree to disagree. I don't trust him with runners on base (too much contact), or to get lefties out consistently. Those things are kind of important.

I am not a Sanchez fan but with this front office I am willing to give him a shot. They aren't going to look at ERA and conclude that he is doing fine like AA did. They have a history in Cleveland of helping pitchers and maybe they'll actually try to make Sanchez a better pitcher rather than accept him for who he is like the old regime did. Plus, it's not like he is a lights out reliever either. He has flaws in the pen as well (lack of K's, trouble against lefties).

No one in the Jays media is reliable with trade speculation. I wouldn't take Blair's word seriously at all.

Yeah I doubt the Jays are trading Dickey. As annoying as he is to watch, the Jays need him ATM.

I think it's likely a wash as well, with a slight edge to Revere in terms of overall value, but it's not a huge difference. The real key is what happens in LF. Saunders can make this whole thing moot if he's back to his pre-injury days. More likely, Pompey will be getting the bulk of time, and while that has upside, it's not the safest approach to take in an "all in" season.

If Saunders is healthy, then this move is great. What are the chances of that being reality, though? He has a f***ed up knee and missed an entire season. Betting on him in LF is a huge risk.

Wow this trade actually happened. We just discussed this today in another thread. I don't mind trading Revere, but this really limits the depth on this team. Saunders and Lake is probably the platoon in left unless Saunders is hurt. Jays need to add another OF now. Storen in the pen is an upgrade though. It will be interesting to see what they do with Sanchez and Osuna. I think this probably signals Sanchez being stretched out, at the very least.

Halladay also defended Utley's slide while calling the bat flip "over the top" within a week of each other. Not a big fan of social media Roy.

I'm not a Clemens fan but I don't blame him for responding like that.

Wow never thought I'd see anyone defend AA as making saber type moves prior to 2015. That guy was the dictionary definition of a "looks at the back of a baseball card" GM prior to 2015 when he seemed to have found a clue.

Yeah, Rodney is trash. Pass.

Royals got a good deal, likely in large part to Gordon wanting to stay there.