glory

It depends. Tim Tebow won the Heisman and lasted in the league for a couple of years before he fell off and went to baseball. According to Wiki his original contract with the Broncos only guaranteed $8.7 mil. Don't know how much he ended up walking away with. If Murray is a good QB then I agree he will make good money. The knock on him is his size and level of competition he played against in college. If he's more of a back up QB, then sure he will get paid, but not as much as if he ends up being a good MLB player. Baseball is systematically set up for players in their late 20's and 30's to get paid, where in other sports it is the opposite. So baseball does present a lot of risk for him since if he's not any good then he'll make nothing in the minors and $500k a year in the majors for 3 years before he even gets to sniff millions. That's the risk he has to weigh. I'm not sure what his baseball upside is. I remember reading somewhere that only 28 or 29 players in NFL history have ever made over $100m. In baseball it's got to be way more than that. It's about whether you want to play the long game or instant gratification. But yes, being a QB changes the game since those guys usually get paid and avoid the typical injuries that most NFL players do. If he played another position then baseball would have looked more appealing.

The Braves have developed more talent than anyone in recent years yet no one will make a stink about this. The best position player we have drafted in like 15 years is Kevin Pillar, but Shatkins gets crucified for hiring their own people.

New York and Boston are a big deal though. Big markets, spend more than anyone else (on the East coast), and have more history than almost every other franchise. If Japanese players were signing with the Royals, then I'd agree. But Toronto also has the disadvantage of being in Canada, which could be another stumbling block for players from a perception standpoint. The Jays had their best shot at signing a Japanese player with Darvish since it was a blind bid. If the player has the option to choose where he goes, then it will always be a huge long shot unless Shatkins is prepared to blow everyone else out the water with their offer.

I think the average salary in MLB is double the NFL, but not sure what the number is now. A lot of this is skewed because MLB players make nothing during their first 3 years of control, while NFL players get paid and reach the league immediately. MLB seems like a league where you are more likely to make money during the life of your career (assuming you're a big league player) whereas the NFL will be more a flash of money early on (non guaranteed) and then a drop off. The one thing in Murray's favor is as mentioned QBs can last longer with the new rules, and elite QB's are generally the highest paid players in the league, but he's still undersized (5'8, 5'9?). The odds are against him. Of course if he's a s*** baseball player then he'll make nothing aside from his signing bonus, so he has to be somewhat sure he can stick in baseball. I hope Stroman doesn't read this post.

The Jays have a long history in Latin America, so that's the market they should be fine in. There is almost no point in scouting Japan if history is any indication, but never hurts to do your homework and give your best offer.

Murray is going to regret it if he chooses the NFL over baseball. Short term it makes more financial sense to go to football since the minor leagues + first 3 years of service in baseball isn't lucrative at all, but long term it is no contest. Undersized QB, non guaranteed contracts, CTE, less money as he gets older, etc. Whatever, it's the A's and not the Jays so don't really care what he does, but I hate the NFL/football so stealing players from them is always a good thing.

Well there goes my theory that he would have gone where the money was. Looks like location was more important to him, or the money difference wasn't enough to sway his mind. West Coast teams have a big advantage on Japanese talent.

Shatkins not doubling down on AA’s core basically saved us. Can’t believe people still don’t realize it.

Damn forgot Kimbrel is still a FA. Dombrowski will get the itch and sign him long term.

Agreed. Not sure what relievers are available in free agency now but if all the big ones are gone then maybe Giles becomes more attractive.

Next two years try out practically all the young pitching currently in AA/AAA, and trade prospect depth for vetrins. The Jays are going to get to a point where they have too many prospects, and consolidating them for vets will become more sensible.

SJW's frantically trying to come up with dirt on Bauer. It will happen eventually.

Players getting paid this off season even though a lot of names still out there.

Time for Shatkins to steal McNeil.

Britton has like a 70% gb rate so it is understandable why he is a FIP beater but more troubling is his walk and K rates the last two years. That’s like Sanchez levels.

Hard to say since the Mets GM seems like white Dave Stewart when it comes to valuing prospects. Pillar is more expensive with less control than Broxton but a much better player. I'd hope the Jays could get better for him than Broxton, but depends on the GM we are working with.

By this time next year Rogers might be telling them to hurry the F up and get to winning again. That's the elephant in the room here. No way Rogers is willing to wait 3 or 4 more years for the team to become good. I think the winter after the 2020 season is when Shapiro starts spending, but I don't think he waits until the big league team is ready for it. Not with this ownership group. They have forced contention windows before with other GMs. Have no doubt they'll try it again when they are sick of the poor attendance.

Yeah no one really knows how Shapiro will operate with a bigger payroll + financial flexibility. He took over a team that had a relatively big payroll but was old and had no flexibility, so being cautious was the right way to go. A year or two from now if the young players are looking good and the team could use a vetrin boost, it would make sense to add free agents. I wouldn't rule it out. I think Shapiro is more likely to spend big in free agency than he is trading good prospects for vets.

Pillar is a useful player and has been great value for the team, but we don't need his 2 War in 2019. I'd rather any one of Alford, Pompey, or Smith get playing time over him next season. Pompey is out of options, so even if he's a 4th OF at best, stick him at CF and see if you get lucky. Use 2019 to its full advantage. Or start Alford and put Pompey off the bench and go from there. Whatever....anything is better than holding on to Pillar and getting the same bat with declining D. Pillar has value if the Jays were contending. That's not happening, so trade him now for the best deal offered. With players like Pollock still unsigned that's probably the hold up, but once more FA's are signed, hopefully that will open the trade market up (Grandal holding up Martin too).

2015 A: 143 wRC+, 232 PA A+ 153 wRC+, 255 PA 2016 A+: 115 wRC+, 401 PA 2017 AA: 135 wRC+, 289 PA (didn't use numbers from A+, AAA, and MLB that year because the sample was practically nothing) 2018: AAA: 87 wRC+, 417 PA I mean, if you think he was exposed in AAA then fine, we'll see in 2019 if that's true, but given the nature of his injury, he gets a bit of a pass from me for last season. Otherwise, the track record is right there.

He was awful in April/May 2018, but did get better from June 2018 onwards (though still not great). The track record aside from 2018 is there and he got a late start. He could easily look like a big league CF by some time in 2019.

Spanberger's Dunedin BB/K with 70 grade power would be damn interesting if he can maintain it (small sample alert). And I'm still an Alford believer.

He had hamate bone surgery. Doesn't it normally take a year of AB's to get back to normal? Maybe it turns out he isn't very good, but I wouldn't give up on him. 2019 will be a big year for him to see whether he can get back to his top prospect form.

Kikuchi settled, which now leaves Keuchel and a bunch of lower end types. Stroman’s trade market might expand now.