glory

That's my point. Those trades weren't bad, just not very consequential, which is why I don't really look at them. I was talking specifically about the bigger named players (JD, Osuna, Happ, Stroman, etc). My point was you could make an argument that had the timing been different, the returns could have been substantially better. Again, it's tough to prove that without knowing what was offered, but I don't think anyone could be happy with Merryweather, Perez, Paulino, Drury, McKinney, etc, as the returns for the remnants of the playoff teams. SWR/Kay is a different story. I don't think I'm being hard on Shatkins. Like I said I think overall they've done really well. But if you want to pick a weak spot for them during their tenure, what I mentioned has been it.

Out of those moves, the one they did great on was Liriano because they got 2 months of someone who helped them get to the playoffs and two prospects (one was a bust, the other looks like a decent backup catcher who will provide some value). I don't disagree that the others were good moves, but in the grand scheme of things those players are probably not on the next contending Jays team (at least not prominent parts of it) so I don't really put as much weight on those deals as I would for some of the vets discussed previously. Although, Thornton stealing some of Buchholz's repertoire and seeing good results in September has me somewhat intrigued about him, and Teoscar's exit velo + improved walk rate is encouraging. There's still time for those trades to go from "solid" to great.

They traded him while he was serving a suspension for domestic violence. That's the definition of bad timing. I wasn't blaming Shatkins, but bad timing is bad timing. Did they get a good return considering the circumstances? Yes. I thought Paulino had potential (where the F is he now?) and Perez was a lotto ticket type of prospect, but they could have done way better than that in a normal situation for an elite reliever with 2.5 years of control left. Not all bad timing was their fault. Osuna was out of their control. JD was within their control prior to 2018, not so much during 2018. Happ was a bad trade, but 2 months of a mid rotation starter in his mid 30's probably wasn't going to be that valuable a piece even if his last couple of starts before the trade were better (the time to trade him was probably trade deadline 2017 for optimal return in hindsight). Giles obviously got hurt before they could trade him. Sanchez became a bust after 2016 so even getting Fisher was probably a miracle. The one trade they got absolutely right in timing and return was Stroman. Everything else has been a mixed bag. The good news is none of their "bad" moves have been significant, so they hedged their bets well enough while developing the farm system to get us to where we are now. Like I said, they came into a situation with a one year window, and ownership wanted to extend that window beyond its shelf life because the team was a money train in 2015-16. It wasn't the easiest situation to navigate through, but I'm fine with the end result, even if certain things could have been done differently.

I'd say they have been excellent in terms of the farm system (drafting, international signings), but the one knock on them has been MLB transactions. Those have been a mixed bag, made worse by some bad timing with trades (JD, Osuna, Happ). I guess you could argue had they started the rebuild during the 2017 trade deadline or prior to the 2018 season rather than at the 2018 trade deadline that maybe there would be some better young pieces in the pipeline to go along with the existing top farm system, but hard to say without knowing what exactly they turned down in 2017-18. Considering the situation they inherited, an old playoff team with essentially a one year window, I'd say they did pretty well all things considered. It's much easier to acquire vets in free agency/trade in today's market than it is to develop stars, and the Jays have the potential to develop some stars in the next few years, as early as 2020 if the season starts/concludes.

And I believe Farrell is the 3rd scouting director to oversee a draft since Shapiro was hired (Parker -> Sanders -> Farrell). It hasn't seemed to hurt them in terms of quality of drafts, which is great, although a special thanks to the Orioles for gifting Martin to us. Between the drafting and international scouting over the last few years, the Jays are set up very nicely.

Shatkins continues to kill it in drafts.

That's good news. I think Vancouver would kill it as a MLB franchise. Put a good team on the field, and that place would be 2015-16 Toronto when the Jays were hot.

Ideally, add two teams to the league, and relocate the Rays anywhere else. If getting a 2nd Canadian team, I think Vancouver sounds more appealing than Montreal, but not sure if MLB has ever considered Vancouver. That market seems a lot more baseball friendly than Montreal's.

Expansion is inevitable.

I can buy Tellez as a league average MLB hitter, but no way on McKinney. Tellez at least has some friendly statcast numbers. McKinney does nothing well.

Agreed. The current format + unbalanced schedule has been unfair for years. This year it seems more ridiculous because while they don't have a choice other than to have the teams closest to each other in region play each other, the fact remains that the Jays and the White Sox are going to fight for the same WC spot despite having completely different schedules. It's unfair in a normal situation, but in this situation it's amplified. The only way the unbalanced approach would make sense is if they added 2 expansion teams, went back to 2 divisions per league, and eliminated interleague play. Then you can have a schedule that trends towards playing your own division more often, but without making schedules for teams fighting for the same playoff spots be so different in difficulty.

Maybe "very little chance" is premature considering we don't know the entire list of who is sitting out yet, and a 60 game season means a hot start by a .500ish team (which is where the Jays probably fall talent wise in 2020) can put them right in the thick of it. Plus "spring training/summer camp" is a joke leading up to the season, so who knows how players will even perform if there is a season. I just see the Jays as more of a 2021-22 team, and the new 2020 schedule is not in our favor. If there was expanded playoffs like there should have been, then it would have been way more fun.

This wouldn't be the worst outcome at this rate. The Jays have very little chance of making the playoffs without an expanded format, it's only 60 games, and Rob Manfred overseeing health/safety for a major sport during a pandemic sounds like a really, really bad idea. We are seeing that in execution already, and it hasn't even been a week. Only issue of a lost season from a Jays standpoint is we would lose a year of Vlad and Biggio if no season is played or season is cut short. But whatever, can't worry about what we can't control. I want baseball back as much as anyone, but it doesn't sound all that promising right now.

That schedule looks brutal, but not unexpected given the regional setup. Of course starting in the Trop is just a sick joke from MLB, for a multitude of reasons.

Apparently a few teams have cancelled their workouts due to not getting test results back yet (Nats, Astros, A's). Rob Manfred probably saving a few bucks somehow in the testing protocol.

I can't believe Felix is only 34. Feels like he's been in the league since the 90's.

Those 'plenty of players across the league' are likely all the players who have already gotten their life changing contracts.

Davidi mentioned anyone with Covid can’t board the plane so looks like anyone who is on the way or already there is safe for now.

I haven’t heard about there actually being any spring training games. Maybe there will be, but that would involve more travel since teams are reporting to their home ballparks. I’d imagine ST will be simulated games. First two weeks of the season will basically be bullpens galore.

From Blue Jays MLB page: Make your own assumptions here.

In a normal situation you might be right, but this is not a normal situation. We have no idea what Covid will do to baseball in college, the minors, or the Majors over the next 12 months. Martin may wait until the very end to sign, but he's signing. Boras has no real leverage, but he also has no reason to sign right away, so it's a waiting game.