glory

Run differential is not a predictive stat, it's a stat that tells you whether a team is over or underachieving based on a specific sample of results. Just because the Jays had a +100 (or whatever it was) RD and a .500 record, it didn't mean they were going to outscore their opponents in a similar fashion the rest of the way. So yes, you can use RD to judge trade deadline strategy, but at the end of the day, if you're 4.5 games back and have to catch 3+ teams and fight off another team right behind you in a cupcake division (Cleveland) in the process, then it's not a cut and dry issue. You can easily justify a pivot in the other direction in that scenario, maybe not full scale, but a quick retool to prepare for 2022 was a very reasonable direction to take. The Rays would have done it even without the financial implications, and that's the team the Jays have to be better than at some point soon. As far as Chapman versus Semien/Ray, I don't see why they are not comparable. Yes, the Yankees are the alpha franchise, so they have that going for them, but Chapman didn't take a discount to sign with them. He took a huge contract, probably the most money he was going to get. That's what it would take to get Semien and Ray back in a few months. Semien was a mercenary. He signed because he wasn't getting $18m on a one year deal from anyone else in the Covid market. He did it to specifically cash out the following season, so whether the Jays traded him in July or kept him all season, I don't see how that changes his outlook. Ray might be a different story since he re-signed after being here a few months, but like Semien, he took a one year deal for a reason. He was coming off a bad year and wanted to rebuild value. He's had a fantastic year. I really don't envision a scenario where he takes fewer years or term to stay with the Jays just because they held on to him at the deadline. As much as he seems to like the org and Walker, if another team gives him the best offer, then that's usually enough to change a FA's mind. Again, I'm not saying the Jays were incompetent for staying the course. They took a chance on something that didn't have the greatest odds of happening because of optics. It is what it is. They also failed to take advantage of a situation where they could have focused on something a little more likely (seriously contending in 2022) by adding pieces to help that team out.

When you're doing your dream job which also happens to be a job you have no business doing at this level, then you tend to have a "just happy to be here" mindset. Not surprising that he's trying to give that same mindset to the players. Kinda wish Donaldson was still here, even with an unmovable contract, just to see how long it would take him to make Charlie cry.

This really wasn't hard to predict 8-10 months ago when the rumors of him being traded heated up, which is why I'm glad the Jays didn't trade for him. He was already trending downwards offensively, and players whose value is driven by defense/speed are not very likely to age gracefully. That contract is already brutal. It will continue to be brutal. I'm sure he'll have some good seasons in the next few years, but the Jose Reyes type of fall off in his early 30's is inevitable.

I don't following MiLB that much, but I think Luciano was a casualty of the 2020 minor league season being wiped out. His development was already cut a bit short due to Rule 5 status where he barely pitched all year in 2019, and then he lost all of 2020. That would have been fine if he wasn't on the 40 man roster, but his option clock had already started and the Jays can't afford to have someone so far away on the 40 man right now. At quick glance, his AA numbers aren't that bad for a 21 year old but not spectacular enough to hold a 40 man roster spot during a competitive window.

2016: Yankees are 4.5 games out of a WC2 spot with 3 teams to catch. They traded Chapman to the Cubs. 2021: Blue Jays are 4.5 games out of a WC2 spot with 3 teams to catch. They traded two of their top prospects for Berrios. On the day the Yankees traded Chapman, they were in the same situation the Jays were in when they traded for Berrios. The most popular franchise in baseball and the 2nd most valuable franchise in sports by far has more to lose from an optics standpoint by selling than the Blue Jays do. Yet, they were still able to re-sign Chapman a few months later. If Ray liked his time in Toronto, likes working with Walker, and gets the best offer from the Jays, then why wouldn't he come back even if he were traded? Also, Semien signed a one year deal precisely to cash out the following season. He didn't sign with Toronto for preference, it was financial. It would be the same if they traded him and tried to sign him back. He's not turning down the best offer because of a trade, nor is he taking a discount for a non-trade. I really don't think much would have changed. True, these guys are human, and maybe they take a trade personally. I'm not saying that's not possible. I just don't think that's the mindset most FA's have, especially two guys who intentionally took pillow contracts to increase their value for the following season.

I don't want to be the Rays either, but I do want to beat the Rays. That becomes a lot less likely in 2022 minus Semien and Ray, only getting comp picks to show for it, expecting the rotation to stay healthy most of the year again, expecting great individual performances again, etc. There is a point where hedging your bets a little bit does make sense, and the Jays didn't do that. The Yankees did it in 2016, and the following year they were one game away from a World Series only getting beat by a team that cheated to beat them. Good teams realize they have a better chance of living to fight another day rather than dying for a hail mary. Maybe the Jays getting a 2nd WC spot was a reasonable expectation at the deadline and not outlandish, and I would agree with that, but some times when you make decisions, you better be right or have to face criticism, and I think this is one of those times for Shatkins. Again, I realize there was no chance in hell the Jays were going to sell any good players off just before coming home for the first time in 2 years, but I think it's fair to say it was a missed opportunity to not take advantage of a seller's market that baseball hasn't seen in at least 5 years, and may not see again with expanded playoffs on the horizon (teams won't sell good young players if getting to the playoffs is easier, but maybe I'm wrong on that).

The issue is, if that was the team's rationale for doing what they did (and it most certainly was), then is that a good thing? The Jays were 2-3 wins away from the World Series in 2015 and 2016, yet by 2018 the fans couldn't have cared any less about the team as the stadium was routinely half empty. A bigger middle finger to the fans was what Shatkins did in 2017-18 by not pulling the trigger on a rebuild sooner (and I blame Rogers more than Shatkins for that). This deadline wasn't near as bad as that, but if the team had moved Semien/Ray and then were leading the division in June 2022, would anyone have looked back and cared that they "flipped the fans/players the bird" 12 months earlier? Unfortunately the team is owned by a publicly traded company so every decision they make is for entertainment, ticket sales, and public perception. While the teams that don't give a s*** are usually the ones who can pivot easily based on circumstances (the cheap ass Rays).

The Jays could have traded Semien and Ray, got back some good pieces, then tried to sign them back in the winter if they wanted to. Trading Semien and Ray wouldn't have been to save money, but to make the 2022 team as good as possible. In that sense the Berrios trade was at least defensible regardless of whether they bought or sold because of the extra year of control. The issue was whether they could have used Martin + SWR for something better (guess it's debatable what Martin's value to the industry actually was by the time he was moved). I mean, the freakin Mariners turned an impending FA into a potentially good player at 3B with many years of control left (Toro) and still created the illusion of trying to contend by making subsequent moves to help the team short term. The Jays could have done something like that too.

I would have agreed with you if the trade market resembled 2017-20 where teams held on to prospects/young players. At least then you could say it wouldn't have made a difference trading Semien/Ray for more McKinney, Merryweather, Kay, etc, types. But this trade deadline was a rare situation where teams were more willing to trade higher ranked young players. I'm sure the front office discussed every possible scenario internally but there was absolutely no chance they were going to actually sell and everyone knew it. If you ask me whether I would have rather kept Semien for 2 more months while trying to dig out of a hole and hoping 4 other teams regressed, or traded him for (as an example) Nick Madrigal who could have helped the 2022 team reach the playoffs for $650k, or Pete Crow Armstrong who they could have either tried to develop or traded in a package for a difference maker, etc, etc, it would be hard to find the former option that appealing by comparison. If the Jays were in the AL Central, then it's a different ball game. In the AL East, you have to be a little more creative. Ask yourself, what would the Rays have done in that same situation (ignoring the financial side of things)? The Yankees had no choice but to try to improve because they had no tradeable assets except their best player (Judge). They have to squeeze whatever they can out of their current group. The Jays were a lot more flexible roster-wise.

Agreed, and on top of that, the team decided to hold on to vets + add at the deadline (which happened to be the biggest seller's market since forever), so they'll lose Semien/Ray for just comp picks, and don't have Martin/SWR to use in trades. Hopefully, Berrios has a big free agent year, but even then, he's essentially replacing Ray who has been excellent this season. Improving next season is still very possible, but they didn't do themselves any favors. The key to competing in the AL East is to be definite in action. If you're a playoff long shot, then turn short term assets into long term assets. If you're legitimately in it, then try to make a real run. The Jays were a playoff long shot (run differential or not, they were behind, what, 4-5 teams?) with the absolute realistic best case scenario being a WC spot. Expecting a 2015 2nd half type of run every time the team greatly underperforms their RD is simply not a smart strategy. This season has been frustrating on so many different levels despite some great individual performances.

Agreed, I think both will have markets, at least for a while. This is not a scenario where technology made something obsolete. It's more of a matter of preference, and there will no doubt still be people who prefer having the traditional card, or possibly both. All bets are off when the Gen Z's and younger are taking up most of the space, since they would have grown up with a different mentality, but I don't think regular cards are in any danger for the next little while. NFT's and cards can both share space in the same bubble. Now, if going away from Topps means MLB is going to double down on the NFT's and not put as much effort into physical cards, then that's a different story. Even the biggest collectors are not going to care if the quality of the cards are not great, so it depends on how this deal with Fanatics impacts how they proceed in both areas.

Montoyo was equally bad in 2019-20 and his contract was still renewed. I think the chances of him coming back, especially with a cupcake schedule towards the end of the season propping up the win total, is at least 70/30 at this point. Time to shove your morals aside from the greater good. (by the way, I was/am clearly being facetious, but if people take my idea and run with it, I'll allow it)

Knowing how Rogers (and society in general) works, it would be better if we took a Charlie quote/action way out of context, pretend to be offended by it, and then go on social media to ask for his job. Why does Montoyo only have white Americans catch Ryu instead of Kirk? Maybe there's a racist angle here. Let's get creative.

From an article in June of this year: "Candy Digital, a new sports non-fungible token (NFT) company backed by some heavy hitters including Galaxy Digital, has teamed with Major League Baseball (MLB). Candy will build an MLB ecosystem to buy, trade and share officially licensed baseball content NFTs. Galaxy Digital set up Candy Digital with entrepreneur Gary Vaynerchuk and sports merchandiser Fanatics, which will be the majority owner, according to an announcement Tuesday." So sounds like Fanatics is already involved in the NFT market with MLB, and Gary Vaynerchuk is big on card collecting, so him being involved is probably a good thing for the hobby. Fanatics has time to build some type of trading card system if it chooses to. Hell, maybe even buying out Topps is an option down the road (Topps without MLB seems like it would hurt the company a lot).

Hinch is good people after that quote. Keep those types of quotes coming.

I'm almost rooting for a collapse here so that they fire Buntoyo, but I'm not even sure that gets it done. Either way, I'd gladly miss the playoffs by 100 games in 2021 if it meant 2022-25 was managed by someone else.

It's baffling in hindsight. They could have offered him the QO. Absolute worst case he would have accepted it, but then you get an extra year of a really good player who you can trade months later. They could have moved Vlad to 1B a lot sooner (him not lasting at 3B even back then was a pretty safe bet) and you improvise from there. I guess they didn't want to take the risk of having to pay him $18m during a tank year when they were cutting payroll, but still looks awful. As far as Merryweather, at some point they have to decide whether he's worth the 40 man roster spot on a team that wants to contend. He looks amazing when healthy, but he'll never be healthy.

The Jays care about optics. They make decisions based on what fans or media think, not necessarily what makes the team better short or long term. It's why they started rebuilding in July 2018 instead of July 2017, and why they didn't trade Semien or Ray when it was the biggest seller's market in at least 5 years, if not more. The Rays win every year because they don't have any fans so they don't give a s*** what perception is. Seattle hasn't made the playoffs in 2 decades and even they aren't so jaded to bet on a long shot rather than make sensible moves. Hell, the Yankees in 2016 were basically in the same spot as the Jays were at the deadline, probably a little better, and still sold rather than aim for a 2nd WC spot. I like Shatkins, but if you want to find a weakness, this is a big one (aside from Montoyo, which is the biggest weakness).

Grichuk's wRC+ down to 96 with OBP at .288. He is projected to have a 1 WAR over 600+ plate appearances, and that's being generous as far as ROS projections. He's f***ing bad.

Hot take: Ohtani is really, really good.

Hand facing Soto. This should be fun.

For being a minor league manager, Buntoyo hates young players. It makes no sense. A manager who thinks age/service time means more than actual talent/upside is insane. Smith and Lopez will never play on this team unless it is struck by more injuries, unfortunately.

I don't see the players agreeing to this as constructed, but how does it make a strike more likely? A salary floor seems like a nice starting point in negotiations. Owners are treating the current CBT as a soft cap anyway. A bigger issue is in a non salary cap league, teams don't have to spend if they don't want to. A floor changes that. They'd have to bring the $180M figure way up before the MLBPA takes it seriously, though.

Panik > Tellez. Valera > Espinal. McGuire > Kirk. No doubt Buntoyo was an integral part of the Rays success with his eye for talent.

Another reliever used in a close game only to get DFA'd the next day. Excellent.