glory

If this is the start of Belt turning things around then that changes the outlook for the lineup tremendously.

Schneider can always make an easy bullpen day more complicated. Bass could have pitched the 8th and Jackson the 9th. Not sure why Mayza was needed at all here.

Yeah there's no apology that will save that. Can't even say he misspoke.

The Orioles bottomed out far more significantly, but from a timeline standpoint, was putting up with a couple of 100 loss seasons really that much worse than what the Jays endured right after the Bautista window closed? To put things into perspective: 2016: Jays and Orioles had the exact same record, met in the WC game, Jays won. 2017: Both teams tried, and failed, to extend the window of an aging roster. 2018: Jays tried again, Orioles were just really bad, held on to assets way too long only to trade them for nothing (Machado, JD, etc), and gave up mid season. 2019: Orioles hired a new GM to completely tank, Jays began a 1 year tank 2020: Pandemic season, no fans, throwaway year for the entire league from a development standpoint. 2021: Orioles finish 52-110, 2nd year of their Elias tank, the Jays win 91 games while missing the playoffs by a game. 2022: Orioles finish a respectable 83-79 in what was expected to be their 3rd full season tank, while the Jays win 92 games and make the playoffs. So essentially, both made the playoffs in 2016, both held on to an aging roster rather than start a rebuild in 2017-18, both began a real tank in 2019, and the Jays became good (2021) one year sooner (2022). Unfortunately we don't know what the Jays would have done in 2020 if the pandemic never happened, but a full season rotation (after Ryu) of Roark, Anderson, an injury prone Shoemaker, and trash Thornton combined with a middling pen probably doesn't see .500, although maybe the offense would have carried it to respectability. The Jays also spent significantly in 2020-21, getting Ryu, Springer, Semien, etc. The O's basically did nothing and it's been nothing but organic growth. I guess the main difference is the Jays were just bad in 2017-18 while the O's were horrendous, but I mean, bad is bad. I think we have to give the O's some credit here. This was a pretty quick turnaround all things considered, and the farm system is still in an amazing spot. Wouldn't shock me at all if 2023 is the last season the Jays are better than them for a while, assuming they end up better this season to begin with.

Atkins is solid, but definitely replaceable. I'd be fine with it. Whether it would actually happen is another story. It would have to take either missing the playoffs this season or getting embarrassed in the WC round again for it to be possible, and even then I'm not sure. With Vlad/Bo only controllable through 2025, if Click stays around long enough (he probably won't), then I could see him being Atkins' successor at some point. It's not like Atkins has set this up to be a sustainable juggernaut. After 2025 it's highly possible the team will have to go through a rebuild depending on what happens with Vlad and Bo's contracts, and I sure as hell don't want Atkins around if that happens.

Agreed. The farm system in particular is not making me very confident for a sustainable run beyond 2023-25, so the Jays really have to take advantage of these next 3 seasons. The fact that the team has over $80m invested in the rotation and we'd still have a hard time feeling confident with whoever would start Game 2 of a playoff series is kinda scary. I still expect the Jays, barring significant injury, to be around where they were the last two seasons (90-95 wins), but the strength of the division is intense.

Gausman has to be tipping his pitches. Or Cora is cheating again. Maybe both.

Kirk and Merrifield both off on the same day again. Not sure why Schneider (or the org) can't structure the off days differently so that two of your better performing hitters aren't sitting on the same day in favor of two hitters who look absolutely overmatched and abysmal so far (Belt/Biggio).

I hate pitching prospects.

The issue with the Game 2 scenario was that there is no analytic in the world that could rationalize it. Mayza got rocked by RHB. Santana was much better against LHP. Gausman had no issues with facing an order for the 3rd time (2.91 ERA/2.65 FIP 3rd time through the order in 2022), was only at 90+ pitches, and had a near 6 WAR regular season. There are good decisions that just don't work out, and then there's whatever the hell that was. Never mind having an 8-1 lead in the 6th and deciding that Tapia was the best guy to bring in rather than a vetrin whose only skill at that point was being great defensively. Schneider and all managers do make decisions based on probability. As mentioned, some times it works, some times it doesn't. There are also times when moves simply do not make sense and are a result of a manager's "gut" gone wrong. I hope the latter was responsible for Game 2's decisions because if it was the Jays analytics, then that's a bigger problem.

That man did what he did in Game 2 of the Wild Card game and immediately got extended. We shouldn't be surprised at anything we see this season.

Yeah, Kirk and Merrifield should be ahead of Varsho, but regardless the right players are playing. Making the lineup "more lefty" hurts the offense because Belt is washed and Biggio stinks. The two catcher lineup and Merrifield playing everyday at 2B should be the most used lineup unless/until they replace Belt with a better bat.

They can't afford to lose Chapman, but I don't know if they would be willing to pay the price that it would take to sign him. Chapman is a Boras guy and by far the best FA 3B available. If he's coming off a 5-6 WAR season on top of that, then his ask will be huge, and whoever signs him would be paying top dollar for his 30's. The front office does deserve some benefit of the doubt in this case as they lost Ray coming of a Cy Young season and Semien coming off a top 3 MVP finish, and somehow replaced both with better players (Gausman and Chapman). I would expect them to try the same this winter. I agree that they need to go reasonably "all in" at the trade deadline. No more giving Tapia 500 plate appearances just to non tender him after the season type of decisions. The Jays are closer to the end of the Vlad/Bo window than the beginning, so every move they make between now and 2024 will have to be done with the expectation of trying to win a championship in 2023-25. The farm system doesn't look like it will be producing another star position player any time soon, so they'll have to make more Varsho type of trades where they turn prospects into controllable big leaguers at positions of need during the winter, while also trading prospects during the deadline to get better.

Yeah I think it's fair to say the Jays will be at a disadvantage come playoff time with Schneider managing, but they are still a really good team, so even with Schneider costing the team games here and there with bad bullpen management or whatever, they should still be 90+ wins by the end of the season. If the Rays end up being 100+ wins, then there's not much you can do about that. The 2021 Jays missed the playoffs by 1 game, and Montoyo literally punted a game on purpose just to teach Tyler f'n Chatwood a lesson. I don't think the Jays have to worry about that with Schneider, at least I hope not, but regardless, the Jays seem to have a type with managers so it's not like they'd replace Schneider with a vetrin. It will be another yes man who will do what the org wants, and most orgs do that now. Even Boone is a puppet for the Yankees front office. Cash is as well, except the Rays as a whole are very smart, so it doesn't come off that way.

Swanson has pitched in half of the team's games. They likely need to start trusting other relievers in the late innings to avoid him and Romano burning out. Pearson is the logical guy to thrust into that role given his stuff. Hopefully last night was the start of it, although I suspect Jimi will be trusted more.

Lineup balance when the lefties suck isn’t all that.

Kluber is hittable but if we are getting Bad Berrios tonight then it may not matter.

Brian Cashman is like 0-for-100 in trades/signings over the past 12-18 months. He basically went into this season doing nothing with their offense aside from incorporating Volpe into the lineup. He added no depth, stuck with sunk cost like Hicks/Donaldson instead of upgrading the margins, and practically every pitchers he's acquired over that span has gotten hurt. I think the Yankees will be fine once (or if) they get healthy, but with the Orioles being good now, I'm not sure they have much room for error. Thankfully for the Jays, the Steinbrenner kids are big believers in cronyism, so Cashman probably has this same job until he's 73.

Yeah if they wanted KK in CF then they could have replaced Espinal and moved Merrifield to 2B. You can't assume the Jays would never have to bat again, and Merrifield is a much better bat than Espinal at this point.

Hopefully this is not a save situation late as Schneider probably licking his chops to use Swanson and Romano again.

Schneider definitely going to get ejected today, but it would be warranted if he gives the umpire the earful he deserves.

I think what's more annoying is that you know Gonzales will get those same pitches called strikes.

Yeah apparently Arte doesn’t want to be known as “the guy who traded Ohtani” so instead of getting players who could help his team in 2024 beyond, he will take the comp pick and watch the team sink even further.

Kirk and Merrifield better be in the lineup tomorrow.

If Schneider was managing the Mariners, McGee would have been taken out after 5.