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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. This competitive window was based on having two young superstar position players. However, if you remove 2021 (which had 4 months in a minor league complex), Vlad has a career 3.5 WAR in 1757 plate appearances. Granted he gets penalized for being a s***** 3B (2019) and a bad base running 1B, but for the majority of his career he's resembled nothing close to a superstar player. Right now he's tied for 7th on the team in WAR and is 5th in wRC+. That's going to decrease this roster's ceiling significantly. Manoah s***ing the bed hurt a lot, and we can talk about strength of schedule, but ultimately the Jays are going to need Vlad to be a star otherwise it's going to be an uphill battle.
  2. Pearson as a RP is a stud.
  3. Jimi hitting 99 is interesting.
  4. Agreed. Cimber has been good since coming to Toronto but I'm not sure he's a guy you want to hold on to for years given his age, lack of velo, and lack of swing/miss. I feel like maybe they could have sold high on him after his 2022 season (wouldn't get much back either way), but one thing about Atkins is he always tends to sell big league talent at either the lowest value or damn close to it, so I guess we have to wait for Cimber to pitch his way off of the team before cutting bait. Though to Atkins' credit, his love for Trevor Richards is being validated so far.
  5. There were quite a few promotions from 2018-22 (Jansen, Gurriel, Mayza, Vlad, Bichette, Biggio, Romano, Pearson, Kirk, Espinal, Manoah, Moreno), so yes you can't say that Atkins has been bad from the development side. However he hasn't been good with pitching development, and there are real concerns about whether the team can produce a next wave of prospects over the next 2+ years. His strength, at least from 2020-now, has been MLB moves. His FA signings and trades, for the most part, are usually pretty good. That's been able to compensate for some of his weaknesses. It's actually impressive that he's put the team in position to possibly get to 90 wins for the 3rd straight season, it shows how good his FA/trades have been because his pre-2020 work was pretty subpar. The long term question is whether he can develop more young players, close to Vlad/Bo caliber, in time to prolong this competitive window. I'm not banking on that, but who knows. I'm firmly back on the Orelvis bandwagon, and maybe he can be the start.
  6. Yeah with Bo here another 2 years my guess is Jimenez will be traded at the deadline (or winter). He's at least young enough at a high enough level to be interesting, but without any power it does seem like his upside is very limited even if he's good/great defensively.
  7. Orelvis seems to be the only top prospect that is worth getting excited about. If Leo Jimenez is a legit defensive SS then he might be another one, not much power, but seems to do everything else at a decent level. Beyond that I am drawing a blank. If Davis Schneider is coming out of no where to be a big league option at 2B, then that's great. The issue with the Jays being in the middle of a contention window, I'm not sure Atkins would even put any of the prospects in a position to play a lot at the big league level. It's probably more likely they are traded at the deadline for a player(s) with a year or two of control. This does feel a lot like the JP Ricciardi era. What looks like a competitive high 80s win team + a farm system where you have to squint in order to find something to get excited about. Not fun but hopefully we see some development in the next few months.
  8. Nice, use Francis tonight in a blow out so that Mitch White is fresh for the bullpen game.
  9. Did they explain why they optioned Francis? My guess is they'll try the same thing next time except with Mitch f'n White following Richards, which seems like a really bad idea in Texas, but whatever. Maybe Atkins thought that he finally might have caught lightning in a bottle with a SP prospect out of no where and decided to sabotage it before seeing if it would succeed.
  10. I'd be very (pleasantly) surprised if the Jays are still a good team in 2026, but it's going to depend on extensions to Vlad/Bo and what type of internal development can take place from now until 2026. The one saving grace for 2024-25 is that Atkins is pretty good with short term big league moves so I'm sure he'll adequately replace whoever he has to replace. The key to determining 2026-beyond is how he can incorporate young talent into the mix and what kind of young talent. It was easier to use young prospects in 2019-20 when there was no expectations. Will he put Orelvis at 3B in 2024 if he does well in AAA to end the season? That's a risk for a team with a short window. It would be nice if they could lose Chapman and Merrifield, and plug in Orelvis and Barger/Schneider without missing a beat, though that seems way too pie in the sky. If I had to bet, I'd say 2026 will resemble 2017-18 in terms of trying to squeeze more juice out of something that has no more juice to give, but 2.5 years is a long time in baseball. It took Orelvis only a month to be a prospect again so a lot can change.
  11. Eppler has been a disaster for them. It's a toss up between him and Buck as far as who goes first, but wouldn't surprise me if both are gone soon. Last season might have been their window with this group.
  12. The only way it can be spun rosier is if the Jays get some massive internal development and soon. If Orelvis is a top 50 prospect again, then that's a start. The way Atkins has built the team is the exact opposite of the sustainable talk that him and Shapiro were saying years ago. You don't build a sustainable winner by never extending any young talent, exclusively using expensive FA deals to fill holes, and swinging and missing on almost every draft since 2017. Atkins' one strength is building a solid MLB roster. He usually does well with trades and free agent signings (for the most part), but without the other parts of the equation, it's hard to see that strength being able to compensate for what he lacks. I think overall he's a solid GM but not one I'd miss if he were replaced. As long as it's Shapiro picking his replacement and not Ed Rogers.
  13. The concept of developing a SP prospect is so foreign to the current Jays FO that they probably don't even remember how to do it. Not saying Francis is going to turn into anything but giving him a start against a middling Central team at home didn't seem like a terrible idea. Not sure why they went the way they did, especially since as far as I recall he was stretched out in his last minor league start. I guess just be thankful the Jays rotation hasn't had the injuries that the Yankees rotation has had.
  14. Agreed. Charlie was an easy target but the front office clearly wanted someone to follow whatever analytics they have, so whether it’s Charlie or Schneider or someone else entirely, the way the roster is managed will be relatively the same. I’ve said before, James Click is already on the payroll. It’s not like they will need a long search. Will probably have to wait until the off season because it will be easier to make that move though.
  15. Francis should have given them length. I’m not sure what the hell was the point of only using him for 2+ innings when he was stretched out reasonably well prior to being called up. It’s not Schneider as much as it is the front office but frustrating nonetheless. This definitely has 2021 vibes to it in terms of winnable games ending up costing the team a playoff spot, and I honestly wouldn’t even be mad. At least last time we could blame Buntoyo but it’s the front office pulling the strings so you kinda just have to hope the talent overcomes that.
  16. John Schneider master class.
  17. Man just saw the score and got excited because I thought Francis was starting this game but of course it was a bullpen game. The Jays have been so successful at developing SP from the farm system so no need to see what Francis has, I guess.
  18. That was a great throw by Merrifield. Kirk has to catch that.
  19. A guy who gives up a ton of contact seems like a really bad idea with the ghost runner, but not sure who is available in the pen right now.
  20. Mitch White will help in theory since he can eat up innings out of the pen, but if the innings are similar to what he has been throwing in the minors then that won’t help at all. If Bass were Romano, then the Jays would have found a way to keep him regardless of the media s*** show but Bass being a fungible middle reliever wasn’t worth the headache, especially for a corporate owned team.
  21. If Kirk was running at full speed and the rest of the league was briskly walking, I’m not sure Kirk beats anyone in a foot race. Unless that ball hits the gap I’m not sending Kirk but yes it did end up being close.
  22. Sending the fattest/slowest dude in the league in that situation was beyond stupid.
  23. I figured with Alvarez batting 3rd that Schneider/the Jays analytics weren't going to keep Bassitt in the game. Very annoying about modern baseball.
  24. I think Manfred already said that once they add 2 expansion teams that it will be 4 divisions of 4 in each league, so they won’t go back to 2 divisions even with an even number of teams. Hopefully in that scenario if MLB suggests that the Jays go into a division with Central teams in it that Shapiro won’t pull a Beeston and demand to be in the Yankees/Red Sox/Orioles division instead. Otherwise I agree. The Central teams making it while quality teams have to miss out (possibly the Jays) would be a joke.
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