jaysfan2014

Me too. Stupid 4-day All Star break so that the player's union stays happy.

O's or Blue Jays. Rays are too far back to even be considered for a playoff spot, plus are likely to sell due to poor performance and low attendance, along with budgetary constraints. Boston's out of it due to lack of offense, and also expected to sell. Yankees are anybody's guess.. but the odds aren't good for them without Tanaka.

Yes, it is park-adjusted. A description of SIERA is on FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/siera/

Already happening, albeit some of the losses are due to bullpen implosions and/or lack of run support. However, decent enough defense has mitigated his regression.

Well, let's try another metric: SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA) ORIOLES Tillman 4.88 (4.19 ERA), below average and likely to regress further Chen 3.89 (4.15 ERA), average to above average, best pitcher the O's have Jimenez 4.66 (4.52 ERA), bad pitcher Gonzalez 4.35, below average Norris 4.39, below average Gausman 4.45, below average (but small sample size of less than 80 IP.) Outside of Chen, these numbers spell trouble for Baltimore when they face tougher competition such as the A's and Angels. To be fair, here's the Jays: Buehrle 4.51 SIERA Dickey 4.23 SIERA Stroman 3.44 SIERA Hutchison 3.92 SIERA Happ 4.32 SIERA Sure, our offense is struggling.. but it's not the pitching's fault we've struggled, unlike last season. GET SOME BATS, AA! And regarding those A's: Kazmir 3.28 SIERA Gray 3.61 SIERA Chavez 3.61 SIERA Shark 3.16 SIERA Hammel 3.28 SIERA 5 above average pitchers.

Does this include the bullpen?

xFIP is considered the best evaluation of pitcher's future performance. Oakland's starters, including Shark and Hammel, rank well above average. And based on this, Baltimore is likely to see regression from their starters, which could put significant pressure on their taxed bullpen (#5 in MLB in usage, and worse than Tampa in IP/game.)

Is this a joke? Oakland starters(except Milone) rank well above average in xFIP, including Shark and Hammel. They're set up to be a top team again in the 2nd half with their pitching and offense.

With that herky-jerky delivery, declining velocity and walk issues, it wouldn't be surprising. Baltimore does not evaluate free agent pitchers well..

Most likely it's Santos or Jenkins, or possibly McGowan. Happ can't be ruled out either.

Yanks sign Rich Hill to minors deal. Boy, Hill has sure fallen off from his time when he was a key cog in the Red Sox bullpen, and pitched 63 games for the Indians.

Try losing 14 players to the DL, 6 position players and 8 pitchers (4 SP, 4 RP), and we'll see whose depth is worse. Their current roster makes Toronto look good.

Prado or Hill would be nice..

Matter of when, not if this trade happens. No way Tampa can afford to keep these players, with the team still not drawing at the Trop and likely to be out of it by the deadline, considering their difficult schedule, not as bad as the O's, but still tough nonetheless.

Rays face a crucial road trip ahead in Minnesota and St. Louis, then home games vs. Boston, Milwaukee and the Angels. Very difficult stretch ahead.. with no room for error. One bad stretch and Price/Zobrist and others will be playing elsewhere, including possibly Seattle as mentioned.

Completely understand the offensive woes. I imagine AA is already on the phones trying to add a bat.

All the xFIP info is courtesy of Fangraphs. And regarding Gausman, his FIP is 3.56. Still, how he does down the stretch is another question due to his innings limits.

Schedule strength for the 2nd half for contenders: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24625465/looking-ahead-at-schedule-strength-for-baseballs-second-half 21 games vs +.500 teams, 10 .500 teams (all Yankees..) and a East leading 35 games of teams below .500. At least we don't have a really hard sked like the Mariners..

You gotta be kidding me.. and they're doing it before the Jays series. Can't wait to see him K a ton this weekend vs. the Jays. And you wonder why Nolan Ryan left this sinking ship of a Rangers franchise..

BTW, here are the xFIPs of Baltimore's starters for your consideration: Chris Tillman 4.79 vs 4.11 ERA (likely to regress further) Wei Yen Chen 3.81 vs. 4.15 ERA (will improve) Jimenez 4.42 vs. 4.52 ERA (on DL) Bud Norris 4.48 vs. 3.96 ERA (also likely to regress) Miguel Gonzalez 4.60 vs 4.04 ERA (regression candidate) Kevin Gausman 4.34 vs 3.29 ERA (great young prospect, but likely will see some regression in the 2nd half. FYI, Britton and O'Day are excellent to above average on xFIP, and should continue to perform in the 2nd half. Basically, Baltimore will have to hope for no slumps by Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz, and a rebound from Chris Davis if they're going to stay in the race vs. the Jays and Yankees. And here's the Jays BTW: Buehrle 4.30 vs. 2.64 ERA (although regression is already occurring, as shown in recent starts) Hutchison 4.04 vs. 4.16 ERA (about expected. Should likely stay around a 3.75-4.50 ERA) Dickey 4.28 vs. 3.82 ERA (below average, but not horrible) Stroman 3.51 vs. 4.05 ERA (including relief. Best pitcher on the Jays.) JA Happ 4.32 vs. 4.91 ERA (we need an upgrade at 5th starter.) Based on the numbers, the O's are playing well over their talent level. I expect them to get crushed vs. the AL West, as it already happened to us recently, during our trip to Oakland and LA.

Most likely to be cut for Mills: -JA Happ (likely a DL stint if he's hurt) -Dustin McGowan -Sergio Santos Otherwise, I have no idea.

Baltimore's offense has been inflated by Nelson Cruz. They wouldn't be contending if it weren't for him, and he's a regression candidate for the 2nd half, especially considering he's never hit more than 33 HRs a season in his career, and has a career average of .270. Their pitching outside of Gausman are also pitching above their peripherals as well, and will get exposed in the 2nd half.

We also benefit from having one of the weakest schedules post All-Star break, while the Mariners and Orioles face the most difficult. We're done with the Angels and A's. We do face the O's, Yankees and Red Sox in the 2nd half a lot, Boston and Baltimore, we've played well against this year, although we've struggled with the Yankees on the road. However, with Tanaka out, it's anybody's guess what happens with the Yankees. We also have games with Tampa.. but does anyone even believe Price, Zobrist, etc. will even be there next time we see them? And of course, Boston is a lost cause for 2014, and will likely start selling within the next week or two. However, it is important the Jays get healthy and add a bat, either an INF or a CF. Another pitcher would be nice as well.

Ok, just the RA Dickey trade. At least the other one got us Reyes and Buehrle(who just went to the All-Star game)/

We can't afford a repeat of the Josh Johnson and RA Dickey trades.