Cooler Heads Prevail

Toronto not being a big market team is just one of the myths on here that has life regardless of reality. The stadium sold out from 1990-1993. Since then, Toronto has continued to grow and made out far better during the economic crisis then most US cities. Detroit continues to sign contracts and the city is bankrupt; somehow they still make it work. Oakland and most areas of Florida are struggling, yet their teams make it work. Rogers, like any corporation ( see Interbrew ), may choose to operate the team as a profit center if the community is dumb enough to take it as is. In reality, these sports teams add value to their multimedia operations and the stadium attendance grows when we have a winning team. I am actually happy to see that the fans have already protested this weak off season by only attending around 10-15K for mid week games. Baseball is rich right now, the Yankees also had an aging roster / pitching weak situation and their ownership clearly stated the numbers showed spending money increases their profits, even with a luxury tax. While Toronto can't match that market at the moment ( we did in 1990 ), we certainly can do a portion of what they do. In a league where the richer clubs have a big advantage, Toronto chooses to squander that advantage. It is what it is. Those who make excuses based on the market or actually want a complete rebuild don't have any idea how bad things would get in those scenarios. I doubt many of these people would attend games or even watch them on TV if they were a 95-105 loss team several years in a row like the Cubs or Astros.

You seem oblivious to the fact that in early 2012 he was one of the better pitchers in baseball before he got hurt. He got hurt on June 11th. Here is what one article outlined : "Morrow, making his 12th start, had won seven of his past 10 starts to forge a 7-4 record on the season with a 3.01 ERA. In the seven victories, Morrow allowed just three runs and 28 hits in 50 innings for a 0.54 ERA. Three of those wins were complete-game shutouts."

We sold out this dome pretty much every game from 1990-1993. And prior to that we were at a much worse stadium and attendance was pretty decent 1985-1989, at the 2013 level. So my point is a decent team and fans come out. Saying the dome won't sell out ignores the fact that we haven't been in a playoff hunt much in 20 years ( the one season they made a late charge then fell short ). The building itself is almost irrelevant except perhaps the terrible expensive food they had for many years.

Actually, stamina issues were to be expected given his history, and Redmond was the more obvious choice for 5th starter.

And yet they were wrong, and you're continuing your delusion to ridiculous levels. Johnson is out for the entire season and given recent examples with the Jays, likely out for most of if not all of 2015 as well. Yet you can't let it go, you'd actually pay $4M to keep him in 2015. You are showing such bad judgement here, as you have at every step in this process.

Given that pointless jab, I can only conclude thank god you aren't in the dugout. But feel free to be specific about what your problem is letting any of those relievers pitch a 2 inning stretch, and why you think Gibbons refusal over more then one season to use anyone in a long middle relief role ( unless it's garbage time or extra innings ) is a good thing. Be specific, or I can't take you seriously.

The team chose to start three guys coming off injuries knowing their bullpen was likely the best in baseball. We have Janssen, Stroman, Sanchez, Nolin? in reserve and Redmond and Rogers have been underutilized if anything. I don't buy into the overworked bullpen at all, I can't think of one guy they are overusing at this point. If starters get hurt and the minor league guys aren't ready well we can trade at the deadline. I could certainly see a guy like Stroman get his feet wet as a long middle reliever in the second half if that's what we need.

I trust Redmond, Rogers, Wagner, and Cecil to pitch multiple innings ( longer for first two ) when they look sharp the first two batters. Gibbons seems to love pulling guys quickly on their good outings but strangely let's struggling guys work through their walks and blow up. BP innings at this point is an overrated stat, we carry 8 guys and have more quality guys then most teams. We have several young guys in the minors that can fill later in the year. This is not a major problem, the problem will be if we squander our current chance to get in a good position in the standings and then a couple of starters get hurt.

You might want to note that EE left 7 men on base yesterday. Gibbons seems oblivious to this. A random batting line up wouldn't be much worse then the line ups he comes up with some games.

It is your preoccupation with statistics and what they mean that is delusional. You are over thinking everything. Nobody claims that Buehrle is the best in the league, even if he so far posted a best stat in a category. Saying he's been "above average" understates his start. You seem bothered by the concept that one of our starters has pitched like an Ace for a short run. He has. And he has done this in the past as well, but we don't need that all season, nor will he do that. What he might do is post one of his better seasons which would be a great thing for the Jays because frankly he looked to be losing his skills early last season. You want to do something useful you should look into whether strong positive momentum after 5 starts correlates well with season success for starters. I think it does, but data would help confirm it. He pitched a 4 hit shutout for 7 innings and you chose to post repeatedly about how "lucky" he is. Pointless. He's going to pitch, Redmond or Rogers won't take his job. And if he outperforms his career norms it's a major positive for the Jays this season.

Ok, this just proves my theory that you have zero common sense.

Every indication early in the season was Navarro calls a good game ( see Buehrle's stats ), and blocks pitches fine. Jays pitching is ranked where now ?

Catchers don't have to be super athletic. In fact, Navarro has done a fine job this year managing our staff and I have no problem seeing him catch for us several years. These constant reminders of Navarro's weight are getting stupid, sounds like something a high school student would post.

Except, in this case, they are right. Defensive WAR is a piece of crap stat. Ranking Lawrie #28 among 3B this season defensively is a joke. Look, I remember when I started reading some of the stuff people say on this site about past Jays like Alomar and their defence, posted by kids who never saw them play but they believe in defensive WAR. I looked at their numbers. They don't even correlate well between seasons and I know the numbers on Alomar are absurd. Let's face it, admitting that defensive WAR is a joke makes WAR somewhat of a joke. And that upsets people.

His perceived value took a dip today. Such a good run before might have max'd out his trade value, which was my point, plus the idea that we need a hitter and trading one of our better relievers is the least damaging move. Rogers or Redmond can be added in to a package. Hard to take this team seriously when our reserve OF/DH/bench sluggers are guys like Sierra, Thole, Gose, Goins, Kratz, Diaz. There are teams in the league with horrible holes in their pitching staff. There has to be a trade out there that makes sense, it would be a crime to keep this overloaded bullpen in a sport short on pitchers. AA is really reminding me of Gord Stelleck. Kind of a young "nice" org guy that his bosses installed to be their "yes man" in the role. More then a full season of almost no trades and this roster shuffle thing that just looks like sheer chaos is clearly yelling out incompetence. No excuses now we have enough talent to contend, just need to clean up the roster and fill the glaring holes better. The bad luck we had last year has balanced out, things are no worse then neutral luck wise this year. I am really unclear why AA is qualified to be a baseball GM, what about his background makes him so. But I think you have to give guys some credit until they fail. He's failing, I'd have cut him end of last season but obviously somebody internally likes him a lot ( somebody actually calling the big shots ). So, AA, do something. You said you wanted a stronger bench, lost Davis and De Rosa and replaced them with backup catchers and backup IFs. This is not rocket science, Thole being your DH is a joke. Gose playing even a game until such day as he produces in AAA ball is a joke. Kawasaki batting second is a joke.

I've been involved with multiple sports for four decades as a participant and coach. I highly doubt you can speak to me about knowledge, but do tell us, exactly what is your involvement in sports that makes you so confidant in this statement ?

I think the Roy Halliday trade was worse then the Dickey trade. I also suspect that the whole Samer for Sanchez+Stroman idea will end up being a nice escape not pursuing it. Sanchez has a high ceiling just like Syndegaard. It would have been nice for the Jays to keep both of them. Dickey was somebody we needed, but not at that price. To be fair, Syndegaard was in single A at the time.

Sure, I don't live and die with what the Leafs do. The Leafs had to rebuild from the worst roster in hockey a few years ago. Most of their moves were gold, but they had too far to come under a salary cap. And to be clear, I never would have signed Phaneuf I didn't like that move. So trading for Kessel and signing Phaneuf were the two moves I didn't like. If the Rays sink this year, I'm happy, a little bit of karma for the negativity on here about Toronto sports. And if all else fails, my main sport is Curling and Canada rocks at that almost every year. I've played world champions and still compete occasionally against elite level players.

All season. Rays probably sink to last place in a tight division because they lack the budget to fill their holes. Yankees, Red Sox, and even the Jays will likely upgrade before the deadline; Rays might bail once the reality sinks in.

These recent GDT's are awful, the first 30 pages or so for the last two games are just a whole lot of complaining about the Jays based on a few innings of baseball. It was 2-0 for the Twins after two innings in unusual weather; fast forward we won 9-3 going away. Now you'd think if some of you were paying attention you'd realize we have the best bullpen in baseball and a decent offence, so as long as our starters don't get shelled we are always in games.

I wonder how much K. Morales is asking for, he would add depth to our bench and spot start or fill for any injuries to Lind or EE. Hell, we could even let EE play a little 3B if ever needed. Not sure on the dollars though, but I like bringing in a power hitter that has a decent obp. Yankees survived last year slotting in pretty mediocre veterans like Wells and Overbay.

I believe it's an emotional aspect that we all have that we want to identify bargains and be able to say we picked a guy if he turns out. It's just not always smart for real teams to operate on that level though. It seems that the Jays have a legit salary cap ( I don't agree with them on this but it seems real ). On that basis alone, there is no way you pay Johnson $14M to pitch one year given his injury history. As someone else correctly noted, we already have Morrow in that category ( plus Hutch and add McGowan now ).

My theory before this preseason was the pitching market was weak/expensive and the Jays should consider upgrading their hitting line up instead ( I liked Beltran for example ). If they insisted on getting a pitcher, Tanaka maybe as a high end gamble or Santana as an insurance policy if they felt desperate ( not knowing the injury status of our guys I could see this as potentially being an ok signing if $ ok ). There is always a lot of guesswork on these things, some other posters liked Garza and he's been fine. But imagine if we had signed a couple of hitters, how good this team would look now ( not to mention maybe somebody else is a little weaker if we sign one of their acquisitions ). Standing pat does allow us to acquire somebody midseason now, so the Jays strategy is only good if they are smart enough to do this. We are a little thin right now, but potentially very good with the right 1 or 2 moves. I wouldn't wait until the break, they need to make hay now in the standings which minimum means get one more quality batter asap. I am concerned that AA's habit of standing pat will ruin an excellent chance to contend this season. Sierra looks bad to me, they need a better player and/or a better bench. They can get away with one injured pitcher ( Redmond can replace ), but if two guys go down which is likely it gets troublesome. So trade or sign for another hitter now, and closer to the deadline if things are going well you trade for a pitcher if you need one. I don't think 2B is a big deal as long as Reyes comes back healthy. But Thole coming in to DH instead of Lind is a reminder how thin we are, no contender has that kind of situation very long.

WRONG. There was plenty enough information in the public domain to know the QO was not appropriate. The fact that you stubbornly insist that isn't the case, even after the baseball market assessed him at $8M, reflects on your own inability to big picture things. If you think a legit actuary would lump Johnson along with the rest of his peers into the same risk group you aren't understanding much about the nature of risk and valuation.

No, the dispute was over his value, that is impacted by his performance since 2010 AND his recent injury history. I clearly stated this twice, that he's not worth $20-$22M per season any more when healthy. You countered someone with your model which assessed Johnson's injury risk as being no higher then most of the league. Not a good assumption at all, especially when there is some risk that his performance since 2010 to some degree might be due to injuries that have permanently affected his ceiling. This is not for sure, but it has to built into any assessment of his value. As I said before, consult an actuary about this you'll have to discount his value every time substantially. btw I have been saying trade/drop Johnson since June 2013. Not because he's useless, but because a team with chronic pitcher injuries and loaded with #4 and #5 level starters ( we have more then enough of those ) cannot invest a substantial portion of their budget on a known higher end injury risk.