Cooler Heads Prevail

Update, it was noted that as of yesterday it was our biggest division lead since ... 1985 !!! We won 99 games that year and should have gone to the World Series but they insisted on pitching to George Brett.

Rays did a good job but there was a timing factor ( good draft slots for years ) and some luck too. Just because it worked for them doesn't mean they can repeat it, or anyone else. Cubs you need to go back a few years they had a winning team for a few and they have traded some stars to kick start their rebuild since. I believe their actions are a lot closer to what you are proposing, and their market and fiscals are more similar to ours. I could pull up a few of their moves to illustrate, but it doesn't matter if you say you are emulating the Rays so be it. My point on Price is we don't know what the market is ( last year it was tight on prospects but the year before not ), if the market reflects anything like the hauls people talk about on here, it will be nice for the Rays. I just don't think so myself, and it wouldn't shock me if the Rays get fed up with the offers and hold on to him til minimum end of season.

Happ always was a decent 5th starter / long relief guy. His pattern was usually really good or really bad depending on the day. The biggest knock on him ( before he got beaned ) was he's basically just a 5 inning guy. After he got beaned, there was legit reasons to question if he still had it, but he's showing he deserved the try now. I think he was pitching well last year before that incident. I just find people almost expect roster perfection on here; if you look at other teams, there are tons of holes and pitchers having bad seasons. That's baseball, the Jays success this season has included using many players with fair to poor contributions. The main issue with Happ is he's overpaid for what he is, but that's not his fault. At worst he's a decent depth guy if you ignore the salary.

I understand you crave a Cubs situation here, they are actually a better example of what you are recommending then the Rays. Check out how long the rebuild is taking and what happened to attendance. The Rays built their team primarily on the draft, they were a horrible team for 10 years. Price got drafted #1 in 2007, Longoria was drafted #3 in 2006. Check out their W/L records by season, they don't succeed without that core, no matter how well they manage trades and signings. Since the Shields and Dickey trades, most GMs are shying away from those kind of deals. They just aren't happening. So even if one were to pursue your strategy, I doubt truly good offers are out there. But let's see on Price, should be a slam dunk for you right ? Your favorite management team and a team that is hopelessly out of contention early. How can they possibly not get some stud prospects for him ? Well, I for one think they won't get anything near what people think, most teams just aren't making those deals and those that do like the Yankees don't have many young players of value to dangle back. Besides, this is totally the wrong time to bail talent. But assuming there was some merit ( say the Jays were 10 games out ), the reasons I listed above are probably still there.

Ok, I'm officially lowering my previous estimate of season wins for the Rays from 74-76 down to 68-70. This is going to get ugly. Turns out that the under ?? on the Rays and over 78 on the Jays were pretty good bets this season, almost a lock and we're only 60 games in.

It doesn't need to come around, he's on pace for 24 HR and 94 RBIs, with his glove you can live without the on base pct. At his age, his ceiling is even better ( might start walking more given time like Bautista learned to a later age ).

I think the Jays are decent in 2015 too, we may lose an OF but the rest of the core is good and I would have to imagine our pitching depth gets better ( one of Sanchez, Stroman, Nolin etc will work out ). After 2015, the team can choose whatever direction the 2015 results suggest. The posters like GeorgiaPeach that think they can forecast 5 to 6 years down the road and want to give up on 2014 and 2015 now are eccentrics without much common sense. Kind of like stock traders who think they can predict the next great stock crash, it's always just around the corner, so they're in T Bills or Gold at all times.

Your nuts man. Just to illustrate it though, please let us know any trade of this nature that a team in first place by 4.5+ games has made. Any team, any year, show me one case where a GM starting rebuilding for the future in such a successful year. I can't think of one trade like this in 37 years. You seem devoted to this delusional theory that the Jays aren't contenders this year, and are advocating moves that would ensure that result.

Maybe because when Navarro catches we win games. And lo and behold, we won again. Hutch pitched 7 innings shut out ball, but I guess you can try to blame Navarro because Delebar has no control this year.

If that is true, I could see the Cubs trading him for another good ML player not a prospect. My point is the Cubs likely want to be a better team next season, adding prospects might not be their strategy. Give their fans somebody to cheer for. Rays on the other hand yes they likely want prospects, they are going to be rebuilding the minute they lose Price ( weak farm system, no depth on ML roster, fiscals are much weaker then the Cubs ). The Rays have a tough choice, they could keep Price for the remainder of his contract and make one last run in 2015.

Santos is a good middle reliever who can't handle the pressure of closing games. As a 7th or 8th inning guy sure let's use him. As a closer, forget it, he's terrible. Comparing him to Janssen is pointless, Janssen has a special quality that makes him good in the 9th inning.

Price and Samer are the same issue, good pitchers but will be expensive moving forward. Plus I'm not sure if either are the kind of guaranteed ace for years in the AL East that warrants a big money contract AND giving up any prospect(s) to get them. I agree with you that Price represents the greatest risk of turning into a bad trade. Edwin forget it, we're contenders in 2014 and 2015 and he's a core fan favorite. I don't think Samer will be traded. The Cubs have been bad for 5 years, fans will be getting impatient for better ball, and he's showing enough this season to probably have changed their ideas on keeping him.

There is also no chance in hell we're trading Sanchez AND Stroman, but people keep posting this, it's like the leading trade idea every time. In fact, very little chance we trade Stroman this year for anybody. We have other options on the team and in the system to trade for respectable pitching rentals. The guy I'm wondering about now is Gose, his value as a young controllable player with some potential is going up. Maybe some teams might want him in a package with a cheap pitching depth guys ( eg Redmond, Delebar etc etc ). Not sure if he's done enough yet, but he's entered the discussion. The other over done idea is trading for Cliff Lee. He's an absurdly expensive starter on a ho hum year with a current injury. My opinion, he's basically free for any team wanting to eat his salary, and the Phillies may just decide to eat his salary anyways and keep him.

Rays are looking like the Cubs in 2010, a string of losing seasons followed that they have yet to surface from.

Moogy bites the big one trying to forecast the Jays season.

We seem to win a lot of games with Navarro catching I noticed, but I haven't checked it out lately. Looking forward to the usual Kratz is our best catcher, Navarro is fat, Lawrie has a bad approach, and Buehrle is so lucky posts in the GDT. Or maybe people will get more creative and stop posting this s***.

No need to overpay for that starter at this point. Several capable starters shifted teams last year before the deadline, none at the expense of multiple top prospects from the acquiring team ( the Boston trade maybe, that trade helps with looking at market prices ). We are surviving very well and the deadline is getting closer, so no point in trying to jump the queue and overpay for a guy to get an extra months worth of starts. Plus that scenario is rare anyways. Sellers market ? Time will tell, I was underwhelmed with the prospects that were moved last season. If we do trade a prospect, it needs to be for a quality guy who is consistently good this season.

My observation is that older fans that followed the team from 1983-1993 are NOT upset about not winning since 1993, it's mostly younger fans who think the team will perpetually suck for irrational reasons. In 1991, fans were upset with the Jays because they "always" choked in big playoff games or late in the season. This sentiment was extremely strong, there were tons of fans saying they'd never win a WS, if social media existed it would be a similar s*** storm of people blasting the team. The team decided enough was enough let's go into overdrive and get a title. I'm certainly not upset they traded Kent, it was a fun ride, two WS titles and some teams would kill for that ( see Cubs ).

AL East isn't bad any more it's +1 in wins, and last night some impressive wins over top NL opponents. We are in first because we have three solid starters and the best offence in baseball. The claims that it's a "terrible" division are basically saying that Tampa Bay and Boston are terrible, and I don't think they are all that bad for last place teams. If they don't tank, by end of year this might end up being the strongest division. Jays are a lot stronger then people are giving them credit for. Just Hutch, Cabrera, Buehlre, and Francisco are major upgrades.

96 win pace, stay calm.

Those jumps only reflect on a team that grossly underfunded themselves prior. In the late 1980s and early 1990s we were one of the top payroll teams in baseball every year. In this exact market ( which has grown substantially population wise ) with the exact same stadium. It's also a team that weathered a 65 cent dollar and an owner in Interbrew that cared nothing about the Jays or Canada.

I find it ironic that people are getting excited about this team and 80% of the moves people suggested on here involved giving up on this season to rebuild for the future. Dickey, Buehrle, Bautista, Navarro, and Janssen are all playing important roles on this team. Convert them to Syndegaard, D'Arnaud, Profar, Hanigan, Santos, Josh Johnson and we would have a really bad 100 loss team with a whole lot of complaining about how the Jays never win anything, how our guys always get injured etc etc.

I'm calmly enjoying watching the Jays gradually march to the division title like it's 1985.

I understand that you're one of the biggest cynics on here about the Jays ( there are others, Georgia Peach for example ); it feels better to believe it's temporary success and that your analysis about this team is more important then how they play. But in reality, the signs that this is a good team have been there since week 3, and strengthened in early May. The lesson here may be you were a little late to the party to see this.

While this might be true in this case, the xFIP talk on this site is so over the top absurd it's stupid at times.