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That's been the Jays for quite a few years now. We fall back in the AL East in the second half because our peers are active at the deadline almost every year. Look at the Yankees, once they lost Tanaka they had much worse chances then our team moving forward. Yet they've already added 3-4 useful players trying to fill their holes and are threatening to make a "bigger move" in the press. Even if half of them bomb they gained on these transactions.

Interesting how often people use the "Jays haven't played a meaningful game in 20 years" argument to back up their points on here literally hundreds of times but I'm supposed to split up the Cubs losing seasons by GM. And interesting how you felt Bolland had anything to do with this topic ( a one year rental hockey player that the Leafs let go this season ). Interesting how you decided to interject several insulting posts on here with no real point other then to try to jab me with a stick and get a reaction from me or other fanboys of similar propensity to pester and annoy people. Look, rarely do you post something interesting that doesn't pick a fight with someone. It is what it is, and at least one moderator thinks you present some value on this topic. So when the forum degenerates into the usual "Jays suck' or "Poster X sucks look at these posts" themes, I know you'll be plenty up to that task. I just don't expect much from you and you don't disappoint me in that regard.

You seem borderline retarded most of the time on here. Big talk hiding behind your keyboard dipshit.

2009-2014 is 6 years. Not sure if it's fair to count 2009, so let's say 5 years. So if you insist on using the Cubs as an example, they tore apart their team and 5 years later still no payoff. Even their GM readily admits he wasn't expecting to still be trading away core pitching assets in 2014.

Objectively, the Cubs haven't been very efficient in this process, and it's taking a long time. Attendance for the Cubs used to be easy, they had some of the most loyal fans in baseball. Attendance dropped 500K last year and it's not getting better this year. It's all good that you like the team when they come out of a long, drawn out rebuild and finally win some games, but I'd note that they haven't had a winning team since 2009 and you are still not willing to take them on. And one might note that the Cubs, like the Rays, have yet to win a World Series, so even the most optimistic fan of these franchises has to temper their enthusiasm somewhat. It is ironic that some of you think the Cubs are an example of a good rebuild, when I think the exact opposite, that they illustrate that a reputable GM and a strong commitment to rebuilding "the right way" can still be a huge failure in today's MLB.

Cubs recent win totals : 83, 75, 71, 61, 66 . Rebuild was supposed to be over by now ( their management I believe said they'd contend by this year ). Their recent trade says they are still rebuilding, although one might call it a retool if one is optimistic. So for the Jays to follow the Cubs plan, we need to totally sacrifice the 2015-2020, and then some of you guys might say "I'd rather be the Jays moving forward then Team X ". So the main point is not how the Cubs do moving forward. This is a tough guess ( they could be like the Rays were 7 years ago, or they might be the Twins/Royals ). The main point will be how will the Jays do from 2014-2021 given whatever strategy they choose.

I'll remember you posted this on June 20 when they were 8 games above .500, and this time you didn't try to weasel out of it based on math. Put that on the list of reasons why I've had it with this site. I'll be back later this year when the Jays real fate is clear ( contrary to popular belief, it's not ), and take no prisoners if by some small miracle ( according to this forum ) that we make the playoffs. And if they fail. you get what you wanted and I have no problem with it.

I just came to the realization that the Jays have easier obstacles to overcome then the challenge of countering the anti-Jay group on here. 20 years of losing has created a culture that expects nothing but failure and how dare anyone expect anything else but failure. Might be time I stopped frequenting these baseball sites, I don't need months of this nonesense that will occur regardless of how the Jays do. Nothing short of an AL championship series will change things here, and if they fade it will just turn into the 2013 s*** fest with previous regulars like BTS and The Hurl posting how they knew all along they'd fail on top of the short term reactionary crew now. I'll be back at some point when the Jays fate is more clear. I'm not sure there is anybody else on this site that gives them the best shot at the AL East, so I've staked my claim at that forecast.

Rays get shut out a lot and were a common preseason favorite to win the AL East. Their best option being proposed lately is to tank the team for years by trading their best players for prospects. Rays fans hang their hats on the idea that their management is so strong that they can fleece other GMs of their best prospects, despite being known for doing exactly that the last few years. My opinion, being a Rays fan is a lot worse, lot of bad times ( think Cubs ) are coming down the pipe.

Any team in a 5 team division is usually going to fail. The issue is writing them off, which is a joke at this point. Any teams that can compete well enough over 70+ games is capable of competing well enough over 162 games. There is no guarantee they will, the majority of teams fail. I clearly stated in the past that I like the Jays chances to win this division more then any other team, but that the one scenario that is most worrisome involves losing many head to head with the Yankees and the Yankees augmenting their team at the deadline. This is a rationale way of addressing team chances. Simply writing a team off because it just feels right to do so is what I am addressing here. Or addressing reasons that don't hold much water over 40 years of baseball ( like a "hot month" being unsustainable being a reason you don't win a division; in reality, such a month often forecasts a winner ). So if people want to put up rationale reasons why they may lose the season, and do something like pick another AL East team that will win, go for it. But this whole theory that the Jays will lose because they haven't won in 20 years and something about the jersey decrees this is a whole bunch of crap. Yet we see this kind of posting on here 20 times a day now.

You are so full of crap. I am curious, if not the Jays, tell me which teams impress you this year and are locks to make the playoffs. Tell me about the great depth of those teams. I seem to remember people laughing about who the Yankees were starting earlier this year, and Detroit was home free and going to run away with their division. Tell me about how Atlanta ( BJ Upton has upside right ? ), Milwaukie ( man they were good last year ), and KC ( an offence that can't be stopped ) are so damn good the Jays just don't match up against any of them. I think the Jays are stronger then all these teams, but I wouldn't write any of them off.

There isn't an ounce of truth to what you say, but like any emotionally based opinion you won't be phased I'm sure. If you are writing off the Jays, then you should also write off Atlanta, Milwaukie, and Detroit who all suffered through equally bad stretches during this season. At one point all these teams had massive division leads, equal or bigger then Toronto had. The whole concept that you can ignore a hot month in analyzing a season is stupid. Every game counts. Players go hot and cold every year. But you know what, go ahead write off a first place team and PLEASE find another team to follow. We really don't need bandwagon fans who cry a river every time this team has a bad week. What happened to the idea that all people wanted was meaningful games for the Jays past May ?

In reality, one is best served to understand that you are a pure TROLL and very little of what you say has any value.

Not even close to reality for me, but certainly in a league where the majority of teams "fail", it must be comfortable for you to dismiss a team every year for purely emotional reasons. And this goes even further. Here we are almost half way through the season, and you are still dismissing the team. You have your drug of choice and rehab isn't going to take for quite a while I'm sure. I have no expectations of being right all the time, but I did basically state in April that I considered the Jays to be the best bet to win the AL East, the Rays to be the best bet to finish last place, and that the Jays will be competitive on 2015 as well. If I'm wrong, I don't really care. I am just thankful the Jays didn't follow the advice of a lot of people on here and start some rash massive rebuild simply because our new roster in 2013 suffered. That would have been bad judgement, the kind you like to attribute to AA. And remember, I was with you on firing AA at the end of 2013. He doesn't look half as bad now, but I'm still not sold on him as our GM. I'm older then a lot of people on here, and the one word of advice I have is try to enjoy the journey sometimes that's more important then the end result. My approach to sports has changed immensely over 30 years.

Jays made huge roster moves prior to the 2013 season, so the whole idea that the Jays from 1994-2012 have some bearing on 2013-2015 is illogical anyways. But to an emotional poster who hates the team, perhaps some one who believed in them most of those years, they might post as he does. In reality, the only sure thing is opinions that are posted are real, and they can be followed up on. Anyone who though the Rays would win the AL East and the Jays would be comfortably in last place ( and there are numerous people on here who thought that ), they got it very wrong. So be it, baseball is somewhat unpredictable.

I highly doubt anyone with intelligence enjoys your obnoxious cynicism that got repeated almost word for word throughout 2013, the off season, and 2014. In fact, the team has been everything from terrible to very good in that time period, yet your message never changes. I'm no homer, I objectively looked at this team last year and decided we were only a couple of moves away from contending. Of course, that kind of message was ridiculed and drowned out by the cynics like you and the "rebuild it now" crowd. It turns out we didn't even need to make the big moves to contend, which further reinforces my original point. Make those key additions now you can book a playoff spot. Make no additions we'll get the meaningful games you think aren't happening. "Everyone" on here in 2013 was mostly a hive of like minded people who tend to high five each other as they slag the Jays every which way they can. It takes character to get into this crowd and simply say f*** that, we could win in 2014, and here's why. Which is exactly what I did. Nobody said there is a sure thing in baseball, I've been very clear on this all along. In fact, that's the point, that the Jays doing BADLY is no sure thing like you think it is. That's the irony of this situation, some of you are so sure of yourself you think LOSING IS GUARANTEED, no matter what happens, until such point as something is WON. And in doing so, the team is making you look silly, and you'd rather have them fail then be wrong. You are no fan of the Jays obviously, in fact, any suggestion that you are is in my opinion disingenuous. I don't believe you. Jays losing is your drug of choice, and you are only happy when you can bitch about them. The Kool Aid you seem obsessed about is just ball fans liking the Jays chances to contend, which they are clearly doing. We don't care if you disagree with their ultimate fate, it's HOW you do so that is absurd and distasteful. Sure, stay a cynic, I have no problem with that, but keep your points rationale and stop bitching about people who called this season a lot better then you did so far.

It's not the same club actually, I've addressed that point in the past. Last year we had Johnson starting every 5th day ( or injured ), a terrible Bono at 2nd every game, Arencebia was catching, Hutch was somewhere trying to get healthy. Reyes was out half a year, Lawrie missed huge chunks of the first half, Buehrle was very hittable for numerous weeks, Cabrera had a tumour in his back and could barely run. We were experimenting with Wang at starter #5 among other failed pitchers. You can ignore those chances if you like, but doing so would explain why you expect a 74 win team, and seem puzzled as to why they are in first place.

No, it's an excellent rebuttal. Your claim is empty, without substance. You are free to say it but it's just words that mean nothing. The fact we have to go back to 1993 or earlier to find a similar club is meaningless to the point. Seriously, dude, this is the problem with this site. Some of you try way too hard to rationalize why the Jays will fail. Whatever occurs is played out on the field, and in 2014 there are more reasons to expect success then failure. Get serious and stop posting cynical garbage. There is no point to it. And PLEASE do not claim you were on board all along if they do make the playoffs. We don't need this kind of bandwagon jumping stupidity. You are either a fan or you are not. Surely you can join the solid legion of Rays fans we have on here as they drive towards the playoffs this season.

In 1993, the Jays at one point lost 10 of 11 in June. I'm sure at least a few players were in slumps. They still won the World Series. And to those who think you need steller starting pitching to win, check out that club to see what kind of pitching is required some years. In addition, if you want to write off the Jays at this point, I'm not sure what that means to the Tigers and Braves who have had worse slumps and are giving up first place ahead of schedule to our team. ps I'm still picking the Jays to win the AL East, as I have always done since mid-April. They were a sub .500 team at the time. 9 games over .500 does not reduce their chances.

Everything clearly hasn't gone right, their bull pen was really bad in April and Morrow/McGowan weren't really useful as starters. Reyes, Rasmus, and Lind were all injured for significant time periods. I can't see how you could possibly claim this. In fact, everything went right only for a few weeks in May, and they played like a 110 win team in that time period. Anyways, I sense your whole point is to poke holes in this team and expect the worst; my point is an objective view of the team is there is no way they are a .500 team, and can only become so with major new injuries. If those injuries come, sure, get pessimistic. Until that time, it's pointless cynical analysis.

Your opinion that it is a true talent 81 win team is dubious. Dubious because preseason there was zero expectation of Hutch contributing much, zero expectation that a guy like Francisco would arrive, zero expectation that Buehrle would be anything more then a .500 pitcher ( maybe slightly better ), zero expectation that Cabrera would be better then last year ( in fact, some expectation that he'd be worse ). So I'm not sure what you thought they were "true talent" before the season started, but the objective source predictions I saw ranged mainly from 78 to 84 wins. So you are basically totally ignoring that the team improved from expectations. Myself, I adjusted. At the start of the season, I liked them slightly more then most but posted they weren't good enough to contend ( AA did very little in the off season ). After 2-3 weeks of seeing Hutch/Bautista/Buehrle/Cabrera being far better then expected, and seeing the injuries that occurred in our division, I decided they were likely the best team in the division and would win the AL East. Did you adjust ? Were you putting them down as a true talent 75 win team before the season started ? Because seriously, I think they added 5-6 games from the unexpected changes that occurred within 3 weeks of the season started. Debatable of course. Here's the hidden element, a hard to quantify ingredient that may be a much bigger upgrade then numbers show. Dropping Arencebia and adding this year's catchers seems to have been a big move towards winning. Just on that move alone, this team is far more likely to win. But this is hard to quantify, I just know it's good we did it.

I agree in principal with this with the catch that if we add some top notch pitcher like Price or Shields we may run away with this division. There are a ton of inter-divisional games in September, we could drop or rise very quickly in that month, but I fully expect as of August 31st we'll be in the chase.

Even then, panic is not warranted. We'd essentially be in a three way tie for first place, with a series against the Yankees coming up. For now, we are the 4th best team by record in baseball out of 30 teams. In all seriousness, this forum overstates our weaknesses, overreacts to anything bad, and assumes that other teams and their players are stronger then they are. Look at Oakland, it's a good team but it's not an elite team. In fact, I would contend there are no truly elite teams in baseball any more, every single team has real weaknesses somewhere. Only San Francisco is rolling at a high clip, unless one notes WE were rollling at a high clip in May sweeping several supposed playoff contenders. We have tradable assets now, rentals in Rasmus and Lind or youngsters like Gose, Stroman, Sanchez, Nolin plus useful controllable pieces like Redmond, Delebar, Cecil. This is a much healthier a situation then it appeared we had in the off season. I'd be looking at keeping Stroman and Sanchez ( maintain some higher ceiling upside in the system ), but shop around maybe some combo deal like Nolin/Gose/Redmond for a pitcher. That kind of package will be attractive to noncontenders, Nolin seems to be a legit candidate to pitch in the ML , Gose is a nice wild card prospect with upside, Redmond can be a fifth starter many places at a minimum salary. If Feldman signed for 10 mill a season, well Redmond has value to NL teams on a budget for sure. And I'm sure many will disagree with me, but something like Sanchez/Gose/Delebar would get serious attention for any pitcher. I just don't personally want to move Sanchez unless absolutely necessary. My bet is somebody in baseball will get a top rental for cheaper then this package, and people will say wow why didn't we get in on that situation ? Hopefully, this doesn't occur and we do get in on one dependable veteran pitcher. I can't help but be optimistic about our chances. 2/7 is nothing, Detroit had a similar run recently and no one is going to count them out. Even including every recent loss. the only ground we lost in the last 10 games in the AL East was one game to Baltimore, everyone else was the same or worse. I remain calm like it's 1985 all over again.

Some guys don't need much time in the minors. Check out Dwight Gooden for example.

I didn't even want a healthy Drew, because he was overpriced and like Rasmus is the kind of second tier player that doesn't lead you to championships, yet he may get paid like he is. Perhaps most ( all ? ) teams feel the same way, that only the very best players will get outrageous money now. These guys are great in support of a strong team if you can afford the luxury, a Yankees or Dodgers kind of move, but even then they've both had long periods of mediocre play.