Cooler Heads Prevail

Certainly I'd love to see what gets done in the off season; I'm expecting that managements stated 3 year plan will continue. I'm not being any more optimistic then any Cleveland Indian or Boston Red Sox fan might have seemed last year predicting they'd make the playoffs in 2013. I expect we'll have a stronger roster next season then this season, but if the Jays flounder in the off season hell I'll just rescind my idea before game 1. The Vegas O/U number on the Jays next season will be very interesting. Will extreme pessimism drag that number way down, or will the real betting public be somewhere inbetween the two camps ?

No reason to cross out Cano yet unless he specifically says so. We have the budget and he has friends on the team. Acquiring pitching might preclude signing Cano budget wise but in the scenario where no #1/#2 starter types are available ( and this may end up being the case ), Cano is in play. Rogers is not a poor owner. If they want to go big they can.

I've decided to get ahead of the curve here and predict that the Jays make the playoffs next year. This is a thread to discuss positive approaches that the Jays can take to win next year. Extreme negativity suggesting blowing up the team, how bad our prospects are, tanking strategies, how bad AA is etc etc can be posted in the dozens of threads that perform that service ( often repetitively ). Jays have made good use of the late season to test out their prospects, and unlike in 2012 the young guys have for the most part exceeded expectations. Knocking the Yankees out of playoff contention and now threatening to derail the Tampa Bay playoff hopes is very encouraging. Confirms that we have far more depth in the org then might have been guessed a few months ago. Lawrie continues to look extremely solid. Sierra is an enigma, looking extremely green at times but one hell of a lot of doubles in limited service. Goins helps their depth, in case they need to take a different route in their free agent goals or trades. A payroll jump of 30-40M wouldn't surprise me.

What a useless theory, tanking is for losers. You have a terrible negative attitude. What I see is a lot of young Jays players are not nearly the busts that many of you think they are on here, and at a minimum we have more depth then most on here seem to think.

And if I read the Fangraphs stat right, according to "WAR" the Angels were a better team then the Braves and the Reds.

Trout's team wasn't very good this year. I don't have much use for the idea that a player somehow made his team less of a loser then other losing teams. And in this context, I'd have to note also that Cabrera doesn't have a history of playing on losing teams. A player who excels on a losing team may have the capability to prove himself in winning situations, but excelling on a team going nowhere all year is hardly a true test of value. Interesting how the Angels have a higher team WAR then both the Braves and the Reds.

The whole concept of WAR is flawed. Aggregating disparate items together by summing them is rarely a good practice.

Whole load of baloney based on an extremely flawed statistic. The only advantage Trout has is age. If they were the same age, most teams would want Cabrera because he's a truly historical hitter. In fact, the Angels are nowhere near a playoff team this season with Trout, whereas Cabrera has made significant easily illustrated input into several playoff teams. Its actually funny seeing the absolute lunacy that some of you display just because some flawed stat is leading you on. Go ahead scream it out as many times as you want, it's a completely horseshit theory.

I'm really not impressed that AA and Gibbons keep trotting out JPA to finish the season when he's obviously mentally done, and any residual trading value is getting beat down to nothing as they play him in a season ending slump. The whole charade seems entirely gutless and I don't blame JPA at all for the last couple of weeks. Gibbons has mailed it in for quite a while now. Jays are actually somewhat fun to watch some games, except when Arencebia bats its all a big joke by now that's gotten stale and its not even fair to the man himself.

I could see ( Bautista + Cabrera ) for ( Lee + Ruf ). Phillies might want to shake things up for next year, their offence was pretty dead at times. If they took Cabrera off our hands it would make Lee's contract less of a burden.

Wel, its good then that most of your useless posts are one line long because they stand a better chance of being read.

This is one of the highest probability situations in recent memory. First, cut JPA and Gibbons. Is the team better ? Definately. Let Johnson walk. Can they find someone better then Johnson version 2013 ? I think they can. Can they find free agents or get comebacks from players better then Bonofocio/Morrow/Ortiz/Wang/Cabrera/Izturis ? High probability they can. Can they get more games from Reyes/Lawrie ? No guarantees but odds are one of them will play more if not both of them. Could any of their pool of minor league or often injured starting pitchers become genuine useful parts of the rotation ? Odds are one of them will, with none of them or two of them being the next more likely options. But none of them just means they have the same team problems as this year. And another huge reason why they might get better next year is they might start better and be genuine buyers at the trade deadline. So what can get worse on this team ? Realistically, I can only think of a few things. Bautista could miss most of the season. Or he could be traded for a player who is a complete bust as a Jay. Their bullpen could fall apart, but they seem deep in that area so I don't think so. Buehrle and Dickey could be worse. I actually think Dickey will get better. I think Buehrle is a downside risk but he's not much better then an average pitcher anyways this season. Encarnacian could get hurt, but that's not been his history. So I'll say there is a scenario where they get no decent free agents, Bautista or Encarnacian gets hurt most of the season, Reyes gets hurt again, Buehrle is terrible, and not a single decent starting pitcher emerges from the deep pool of maybe's they have now. Sure it could happen. I just don't think it will.

Sure it's still a bad trade, Davis they expected better from I'm sure ( not sure how long they get him ), and Myers has been very good. Most of the bad trades in baseball lately seem to revolve around teams acquiring starting pitching, which reflects on the shortage of that asset league wide. Some GMs have overcompensated. When I see aging inconsistant guys like Garza and what they may go for it complicates the topic. You can't win without decent pitching, at what price of your future though ? This is why trading D'Arnaud for Dickey might be ok, but including Syndegaard was likely a big mistake that can end a GMs career. Bautista for ( Cliff Lee plus useful spare parts or cash consideration ), would you do it ?

Funny how some of the posters who think they are a destroyed team were the same ones who predicted they'd do well this year. Its the safest bet in the world that the Jays will be better next year. They are now a decent budget team, have almost all their good players on contract, and have had about as bad a run in injuries as one can expect for two years. And you can claim the injuries will continue but in reality the chances are quite strong that a guy like Lawrie will be fine moving forward. The chances that two starters will be beaned on the mound, that half their infield is injured half a season, that they will have three starters as bad as Morrow/Johnson/Romero were this year is very small. How much better depends on how well they fill their holes and some luck on their choices of a starting staff. I believe if they dump JPA, Gibbons, and Johnson they are already a whole lot better without even hardly an effort. If they fail to do this, then AA is truly a problem. Let's find out, its going to be a busy off season for the Jays and I bet they make one big acquisition that will surprise a lot of people here. If they make the playoffs next year, and I don't care why or how, I want you to bring up your post again. Go ahead, tell me now how many games you think they will win ( I'm sure Vegas will provide an O/U number you can bet U on, should be easy money right ? ), and what odds you would grant on them not making the playoffs. Must be at least 100-1 the way you are posting, with maybe 73 wins being your target ? Myself, I want to see their off season moves.

Could get real interesting if KC sweeps Texas. KC's wildly panned trade in the offseason doesn't look too bad considering they are in the hunt this year even if its kind of on the periphery. Maybe they needed to make a bigger move before the trading deadline, but I guess they looked to be fading out at the time.

All the more reason they might include him in a trade to a team that doesn't expect to contend next year or is on a strict budget. Might be the Jays last chance to move him with some perceived value as a prospect. I think his status with the Jays will depend a lot on whether they trade Bautista or not. Still thinking a blockbuster involving Bautista for Cliff Lee is a possibility.

No worries the org is simply being politically correct and JPA will be released ( whether its in a trade or outright ) in the off season. He got his chance this year to show what he can do and it wasn't a good season. Gibbons needs to go too. I think JPA and Josh Johnson likely need a change of scenery to have any chance of performing well next season.

If Rogers is a reasonable fourth or fifth starter in 2014 at a presumably modest salary, the trade will look very good for the Jays unless Gomes becomes a better then average starting catcher. Given the Jays need for reliable starting pitching, I can't see this trade as being "won" yet at all. Both teams got something they need so I can't see this trade as being bad for anyone. The fact Rogers added a pitch, has good velocity, durability, and pitched in Colorado before ( where he had bad stats ), it is not inconceivable he could be a lot better then his history suggests. It's happened before to similar guys. Even as a reliever, he's one of few guys who truly can be long relief ( eg Rogers, Happ, Lincoln ), even though Gibbons rarely considers this an option for some strange reason unless they are 10 runs behind. Age 27, a little younger then Josh Johnson, so I don't think that's an issue at this point.

Depends what stat you are talking about. I'd argue that WAR is a flawed stat because it tries to consolidate disparate stats. Do I have proof of this or have I researched this ? No. I haven't even looked into WAR components at all. But the circumstantial evidence suggests its only a ballpark measure that might simplify some things but at some expense to accuracy and sometimes its not fully relevant. Complex situations cannot be fully simplified with formulas and numbers.

That's flawed thinking. Cabrera actually is more valuable to his team because he can play 3B and let other teammates play 1B and DH. On a broader level, the WAR measurement concept seems flawed to some degree, an attempt to simplify something by aggregating disparate stats.

I'm not sure why Rogers is sometimes dissed on here, he's pitching on par with several guys who are supposably worth a lot of money to sign. If Rogers remains a durable 5th starter he could help them at a much cheaper price. Jays used to have Stottlemyer back when they were good as 4th or 5th pitcher and they contended many years. So maybe that kind of pitcher ( cheap, inning eater with a durable arm ) is a good fit on a winning team. Our home park can make our pitchers tend to look worse then they really are most years ( opposite effect for power hitters ).

He must have been "terribly unlucky" then in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Unless you think he was actually excellent in 2012, rather then a marginally better then average NL starter who pitched on a last place team that was supposed to contend.

If that's the immature attitude you are going to carry well I'll just be more direct then and say your theory that Johnson was simply tremendously unlucky in 2013 is one of the dumbest ideas anyone has posted on this site.

I disagree, he'll be a gamble for whomever gets him and I don't think the Jays should target free agents that have performed badly on the team already. The clincher for me is the stable of decent guys they have with arm injuries; durability is important to this team. This is why a guy like Rogers that is so easily ignored or dismissed might actually be quite useful for them next season ( truly low risk option with some upside potential ). Some gambles pay off, but I'm quite comfortable seeing Johnson sign with say the Dodgers and their pitching friendly park and doing well, knowing full well the DL is always a possibility and he's yet to prove he can compete well against the AL East. If he has a tremendous comeback year good for him.

The pessimism with respect to the potential upside of the pitchers is no different then the overdone optimism that many had for these pitchers before the season. The truth is likely in the middle somewhere. It is quite conceivable if the Jays have a top 3 offensive club that the staff will be good enough next year if only a few positive events occur. For example, Dickey have a good year ( not a reach ), Morrow pitching a whole season ( long shot perhaps ), Rogers being an effective innings eating 5th starter ( I think this is likely ), Stroman or someone else being an effective #3 or #4 starter ( who knows these kind of things occur a lot on baseball ), ... . How many people truly liked the Red Sox staff going into this season ? Yet the first half their pitchers came out of the gate strong. And there are a few more difficult to evaluate factors like the improvements a strong catcher would bring and just the psychological impact that lowered team expectations coupled with maybe a better start next season might bring. Jays might not have the best staff, but they have enough talent and depth that a significant improvement next year wouldn't be a shock. And if they add one useful guy to the mix he just has to be better then Johnson was this year to improve the team.