Watching Bryant last night, I thought that and Baez deals had near 100% probability they would fail. I stuggle with the long term big AAV deals.
I also thought TEX was nuts signing Seagar, Semien and DeGrom on those deals given ages and IL histories, but flags fly forever. The back ends may still end up being bad deals but when you gamble and win, the investment looks better for both a fan and business metrics.
OTOH does BOS regret not locking down Mookie? Juan Soto will probably worth what he will get given his hitting profile and age. But these guys are unicorns.
I still don't see Vlad or Bo as perpetual 4+ win candidate mega stars. Bo's D has improved, but he still is a bottom half SS and high chase low BB bats don't age well, even when they start off with great bat to ball skills, on the BABIP train. Vlad looks like '23 Vlad again. Alvarez and Yandy Diaz are providing better production on 6/115 and 3/24 deals (Diaz off to slow early start early '24 - but those deals don't grow on trees either)
Some big choices ahead for our team.