BigCecil

Yep, there was an over correct on the Barrio. We loved it on the late run in '21 but then it got stale and fans starting looking for things to blame. I never liked Montoyo getting in on putting the jacket on guys. Leave that to the players, but honestly who cares about the f***ing HR jacket if they want to use it.

LOL. Fk me this team!!! Death of me. I live and die way too much. I'm at games 3rd and 4th June if you head down lets at least say hi. Ill let you know our seats. Hudson is with me and my brother. Got a box on 5th for corp hosting event.

"The Far Side" by Olerud363. Chances ain't great. We have to let it play out. Remember...that one time....at band camp...when LAA went all in at the deadline Leone, Giolito and Lopez - because they had a puncher's chance. They held on to FA to be Ohtani too long - and when they all departed nothing was left but the husk of Trout, and the smoldering ruin called the LAA. My 2 wishes are we let this play out awhile this season 80 gms and see where we are then, and that Atkins is punted before the deadline so we have clinical unbiased eyes making these next critical big business recommendations for our franchise. Not someone half pregnant and trying to save their own skin.

Through 48 gms, IKF has been the top WAR contributor of the $50M AAV group they invested in this off season JT, KK, Y-Rod, Vogelbach, Green.

Barker has gotten very good IMO. He had this down south goofy schtick when we started but he has really tamed that down. I like his hitting insights (he tries to keep it simple and focus on whats most important - hitting the fastball well) and his own humility about his career, after being a stud prospect. He can be critical but its more like Siddall is, as in with some respect for how hard the game is. Blair is playing out the clock but he has nothing left to prove. People love him or hate him. He is ok.

Both AA and Soroka on Blair and Barker today.

I think its the opposite now and then. Most were in favor at the time if you look back at that thread when they exercised the option, and still are. There were a few of us conscientious objectors at the time. I thought it was IL risky and a lot for a reliever with their volatility. I do agree that it was $10.5M AAV of the $50M AAV Jays invested in this off season - not the end of the world. There is time if he stays healthy, and has his stuff, to be of value.

Good story on a great kid from Calgary trying to bounce back: The long road back for Canadian pitcher Michael Soroka of the White Sox https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/the-long-road-back-for-canadian-pitcher-michael-soroka-of-the-white-sox/ Trains all off season in Calgary at Webber Baseball Academy with ex MLB pitcher Chris Reitsma. Its been a rough go so far in '24.

Yep. She is a big user of that volteran she is pimping. Too sore to move much.

My bad there Spank lol

LOL. I never would have noticed if you didn't point out. I'm in Growth and deal in large deals every day. In our business in each deal its "ARO" - annual revenue estimate. I mean AAV but just so used to typing out "ARO". Embarrassing. thx for pointing out.

Vogelbach: $2M ARO : Negative 0.1 WAR Justin Turner: $13M ARO: Negative 0.2 WAR

A. The math says we need to play .600 ball today to end of season. We may have a hot stretch which will push our odds up, but I don't see that level of play sustainable for this team. Maybe if we roll hard at the deadline we get on a scorcher like 2015, but the cost of that risk is concerning in and of itself. 90 wins is current projected for 3rd wildcard. B. Our run differential is not encouraging. If that were tighter, it would be an indicator of other than A. C. Teams between us and spot can also get hot(ter). D. Even if we squeak in '22 and '23 matched up against the other top starters we are fared poorly 3/4 games. We got to Ray in '22 but that was that offense and Teo hit 2 that game. We would have a shot obviously but we scored 1 run in 18 innings in '23 in those match ups. E. 18% odds of playoff spot. If you want to be glass half full and a believer by all means its all good. This is the "ship is sinking" thread lol

After the 6th inning we expect a run or 2 to get tacked on now, with the pen. Which normally wouldn't be jugular. But we are 29th in MLB in runs scored. That is astonishing. -45 Run differential with the overall good starting performances is concerning. As for the pen, not consistently developing pen arm options on our farm other than Mayza, Pearson is biting us. Our pen isn't relatively cheap anymore is it with arb payment increases and Yimi and Green cost?

Thats fair. I'm just frustrated. I mean to be a .600 team for the rest of the year you need to beat some good pitching, and you also need some BAPIP luck. If they win tonight they win a series again it looks a little better. I never expected the pitching to repeat the health and performance of '23. Although the starters have exceeded my expectations. 7th in MLB in "quality starts". Its hard trust the volatility of pen arms season to season.

I had a look over the weekend. We invested $50M AAV this off season into a collective that has produced 0.4 WAR ish thus far in 2024. They doubled down on pitching (Yariel & Green) and D (IKF & KK). JT @ 40 for that cost projecting 105 as DH was always an odd signing. The '23 off season median cost/WAR for FAs was down to $4.4M from over $8M in '22 off season. Tyler O'Neil, Pham, JDM and hell even Paul DeJong, Ahmed Rosario have been worth more alone that our $50M AAV investments, and for cheaper. For all the early criticism of the Chappy signing, he is up to 1.1 WAR now and has his WRC+ at 108. We will never REALLY know who they could have closed to sign here, but they did have $50M AAV to invest. Anyway...we have had this debate a million times. I think this off season sucked overall given our gaps. We need ISO. Others disagree. This team's issues run deeper than one or two signings this off season. Its more about the "waves" of impact talent that hasn't come than any signing this off season. Drafting and development has been a massive Achilles heel and this FOs' biggest failing.

I get the BABIP arguments, and that was a good pitcher. Thats glass half full takes to be sure. Nothing wrong with that. Sample size back to '23 and 47 gms in '24 is getting pretty large. Watching Vlad vs high V he was late with two on in the 7th, and Kopech blew him away in the 9th. I get they are throwing gas but its Vlad. The ABs you would hope would be competitive at least.

He went 6 last night. 2 earned runs. 6 K 3 BB. I think Kooch has been our top starter by far.

Watching Crochet vs RHH in our line up took me back to '22 wildcard vs Castillo, and both wildcard games in '23 vs MINN when we scored 1 run in 18 innings. I get that in baseball you always have a chance if you make it in if you get on a roll, but this line up lacks talent. Vlad was wiped out by big V his last 2 ABs. Overmatched. Even if we do squeak in again - the other teams will have a 1/2 to match up with out starters. We will always be facing the Crochets of MLB or better. Our pen is a work in progress but I'm not even going to get into it when we get 2 hits and score 0 runs.

Well he is not THE problem. His 25th percentile range, 75 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR in 47 games is A problem.

60 IP 10 GS for Berrios 52 IP 9 GS for Kooch Pretty close and Kooch goes tonight

Jays ACE goes tonight and its not even close: Kooch: 1.7 WAR, 2.60 ERA, 2.74 xERA, 2.61 FIP Berrios: 0.3 WAR, 2.98 ERA, 4.87 xERA, 4.64 FIP So many fans see Berrios as the ACE, but the numbers and expected stats don't show that. Kooch has been lights out and better overall. Both have been good.

100%. Market shifted from over $8M cost/WAR in 22 off season to median $4.4/WAR in 2023 off season. It could change again of course but Xander’s deal term/AAV for that kind of player is for now extinct.

I totally agree with this, but the issue is I don't think they value themselves at what we would want them to be valued at to sign them lol. And in this situation they go to market to get the waterboarding Chappy, Belly and Snell treatment to get real.

I think it will get to every call as BTS suggested - but this appeal system is the hybrid they will use as the equivalent of "I'll just stick the tip in" with the umpires union. Baseball can only take so much change at one time. If not for Nelson f***ing us over in 2015 against Revere/Navarro with Wade Davis on the mound we might have been in the 2015 World Series.