TwistedLogic

No, they're optimistic across the board. It's predicting almost every guy on the roster to perform as good as, or better than they did last year. That is unrealistic and inaccurate. You truly believe that Happ and Rogers are going to combine for 3-wins? That Bautista, Encarnacion, Rasmus, Reyes, Melky, Lawrie and Lind are all going to post 530 plate appearances or higher? And that five of those seven players are going to post more than 3 wins each? That Buehrle is going to see barely any regression, everyone else in the rotation will bounce back, and that Morrow is going to pitch 144 innings, something he hasn't done since 2011, and only once ever prior to that? Projections mean nothing. They give you an incredibly vague outline of what you might, possibly get. That's all they should be used for. It's getting ridiculous how many people around here are using projections like they're gospel. Now I'm not saying you're one of them, but every time I see a thread about a player, the discussion seems to be based heavily on projections. This is not an 87 win team. Looking at those projections, there's very few players you can look at and say "he's going to do better than that projection" and there's a far more vast number of guys you can say "there's a good chance he's going to fall short of that number". This organization is the same, top to bottom. The major league roster is just like the minors; huge ceilings, plenty of tools, massive talent, massive risk and almost no sure things. Why would you eliminate the most recent data? You can make numbers biased by picking and choosing which ones, and from what time frames, to use them.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=bakerje03&year=Career&t=b#plato http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=2073&position=2B&season=0#advanced Going to post this over and over until I stop seeing people suggest moronic options like Delmon Young. 370 game sample, 128 wRC+, .875 OPS. Anthopoulos is a complete f***tard if he doesn't see this fit.

Except that almost all of his projections are far too optimistic, which would counteract minor things like the Dickey effect, etc.

I know this is already known, but Parks is seriously really high on the farm. I tweeted him several times last night and he actually responded immediately. I asked him things like, if any other experts have similar opinions to him on the Jays farm, if he's so high on them only because he's a ceilings guy, and if industry people have enough information on their developmental staff/system to be able to judge it yet. He thinks that any analyst/scout worth their salt that actually has knowledge of the Jays system should love it. He says the system is full of high-risk to very-high-risk players, with the only "safe" bet being Nolin (though for what it's worth, I think he forgot to mention Stroman, as I'm pretty sure he sees him to be a safe one as well). He basically admits he's a ceilings guy because ceilings can = stars, and so he'll always pick those over a safer prospect (explains why he's so high on the system). He also says that it's too early to have an opinion on the developmental system (which, actually is correct. We won't see guys AA drafted until this year and next).

Full Credits: Dr. Dinger for obtaining the information, TheHurl for posting it. (1) Marcus Stroman (RHP) DOB: 05/01/1991 Height/Weight: 5’9” 185 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R Acquired: 1st round, 2012 draft, Duke University (Durham, NC) Previous Ranking: #8 (Org) 2013 Stats: 3.30 ERA (111.2 IP, 99 H, 129 K, 27 BB) at Double-A New Hampshire The Tools: 7 FB; 7 CT; 7 potential SL; 6 potential CH What Happened in 2013: Stroman made 20 starts at the Double-A level, showing bat-missing ability and sharp command, doing everything in his power to convince the doubters that he can be a starting pitcher. Strengths: Strong and athletic; generates power in his delivery with lower half; impressive arm strength; fastball works low/mid-90s; can sit mid-90s in bursts; slider is true wipeout pitch; easy 7 grade; mid-80s with sharp tilt; changeup flashes plus; projects to play at that grade; excellent action and deception from fastball; shows plus-plus cutter in the 91-93 range; nasty and late glove-side slice; plus command profile; big-time competitor. Weaknesses: Short; has to work down to create plane; fastball can arrive flat/lack movement; if he works up, becomes hittable; changeup can get too firm/overthrown. Overall Future Potential: High 6; no. 2 starter Realistic Role: 6; elite late-innings reliever (closer) Risk Factor/Injury History: Low risk; ready for major leagues Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Stroman is that perfect combination of high fantasy potential in the rotation and a high fantasy floor in the bullpen. As a starter, he can rack up the strikeouts with multiple pitches and has the control/command to have a very strong WHIP—though his ERA may lag behind due to potential troubles with the long ball. As a reliever, he could be one of the top fantasy closers in baseball, but like any relief prospect, just because he’s awesome doesn't mean he’ll get saves when you want him to. The Year Ahead: Stroman might be even shorter than his listed height (5’9’’), and normally I would be the first person to put him into the reliever box—especially given the fact that he could be an elite closer in that role. But I think Stroman is a starter all the way, with more than enough strength and athleticism for the workload and a deep arsenal that he can command. He’s atypical and unorthodox, but Stroman is going to be an impact starter at the major-league level. The stuff is well above average, the delivery and arm work very well and should be able to handle a starter’s workload, and the aggressiveness and poise fit the mold of a frontline starter just as much as it does a late-innings arm. If you focus too much on the height you are going to miss the realities of the overall profile. This is a starting pitcher. Major league ETA: 2014 (2) Aaron Sanchez (RHP) DOB: 07/01/1992 Height/Weight: 6’4” 190 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R Acquired: 1st round, 2010 draft, Barstow HS (Barstow, CA) Previous Ranking: #3 (Org), #32 (Top 101) 2013 Stats: 3.34 ERA (86.1 IP, 63 H, 75 K, 40 BB) at High-A Dunedin The Tools: 7 FB; 6+ potential CB; 6 potential CH What Happened in 2013: Top-shelf stuff, but a frustrating year that included some minor injury setbacks and on-the-field performances that failed to match the hype. Strengths: Elite arm action; ball explodes out of his; fastball routinely works in the mid-90s; heavy life; hard curveball in the low 80s shows plus potential; changeup flashes plus; late arm-side action; frontline stuff. Weaknesses: Below-average command; can get stiff and upright in the delivery; can struggle to stay over the ball; loses movement and flattens out; curveball can lack snap/get slurvy; changeup too firm; some sources question the passivity in his approach; pitchability needs work. Overall Future Potential: 7; no. 2 starter Realistic Role: 6; no. 3 starter Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; yet to pitch at Double-A level; some minor injury concerns. Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Sanchez has the higher fantasy upside as a starting pitcher, but he’s unlikely to take enough of a step forward with his control to be a strong contributor in WHIP—making him likely a three-category guy at peak. His ability to keep the ball on the ground (58 percent groundball rate during the past two seasons) may help neutralize some of the Rogers Centre’s home run-inducing tendencies. The Year Ahead: Sanchez has some of the best arm action you will see, a lightning fast arm that allows the ball to just explode out of his hand. His mechanics can get out of whack, and he struggles to stay over the ball and finish his pitches. This causes his fastball to elevate and lose life, and his power curveball to get too slurvy and lose its bite. If you are optimistic about his command and refinement of the secondary stuff, Sanchez is a legit frontline no. 2 starter, but there is still a sizeable gap between the present and future. Major league ETA: 2015 (3) Alberto Tirado (RHP) DOB: 12/10/1994 Height/Weight: 6’1” 177 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R Acquired: International free agent, 2011, Dominican Republic Previous Ranking: #10 (Org) 2013 Stats: 1.68 ERA (48.1 IP, 41 H, 44 K, 20 BB) at rookie level Bluefield The Tools: 7 potential FB; 6+ potential CH; 6 potential SL What Happened in 2013: Another start in extended spring training and another pass through the Appalachian League, Tirado proved to be ready for a bigger challenge in his 48 innings of short-season work. Strengths: Loose, easy arm; good release; fastball is plus offering; works 91-95; good arm-side life; changeup is advanced for age; good fastball disguise and late action; slider also looks like future plus offering; 82-84 with sharp tilt; more to project in the body. Weaknesses: Inconsistent mechanics; arm is whippy and release points vary; command is below average (present); slider is behind changeup; can saucer the pitch; body is underdeveloped/immature; needs to add strength. Overall Future Potential: High 6; no. 2 starter Realistic Role: 5; no. 3/4 starter Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; short-season resume Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: There may not be a more interesting pitching prospect for fantasy purposes who hasn't yet reached full-season ball than Tirado. He could be a lot of things at this point, but if you judge it off his raw stuff, the fantasy potential is there across the board. If you can get in on the ground floor now, he’s a candidate to see a huge spike in dynasty league value during the 2014 season. The Year Ahead: Tirado is a beast in the making, with three pitches that could end as plus offerings. The delivery is inconsistent at present, and the body needs to add strength to hold stuff and log innings. Despite the iffy command at present, Tirado shows pitchability and aptitude, and with a slow and steady approach, has a good chance to develop into a top tier prospect in the coming years. His stock is going to soar when he shoves in full-season ball, and when the command starts to refine, look out. This is an impact prospect that could develop into an impact major-league starter. Major league ETA: 2017 (4) Daniel Norris (LHP) DOB: 04/25/1993 Height/Weight: 6’2” 180 lbs Bats/Throws: L/L Acquired: 2nd round, 2011 draft, Science Hill HS (Johnson City, TN) Previous Ranking: #7 (Org) 2013 Stats: 0.00 ERA (5 IP, 1 H, 1 K, 2 BB) at High-A Dunedin, 4.20 ERA (85.2 IP, 84 H, 99 K, 44 BB) at Low-A Lansing The Tools: 6 FB; 6 potential SL; 5+ potential CH What Happened in 2013: In his full-season debut, Norris showed the stuff that made him a second round pick back in 2011; a four-pitch mix that can miss bats and force weak contact. Strengths: Athletic; excellent arm strength; fastball works 92-95; can touch 97; some arm-side wiggle; slider is bat-missing pitch; 82-84 and sharp; turns over a promising changeup; good velocity separation and some late action; shows a mid-70s curve that he can locate. Weaknesses: Command is below average; can lose his delivery; changeup still a work in progress; curveball is more show-me than showcase. Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 3 starter Realistic Role: 5; no. 4 starter Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; only one start above the Low-A level; minor injury concerns. Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: After being dropped in many leagues after his brutal 2012 season, Norris showed again this year why he’s worth investing in. He may lack the fantasy upside of a Stroman or Sanchez, but he’s capable of racking up strikeouts at any level. So check and see if he’s available in your league prior to the start of your draft—you may be surprised. The Year Ahead: While its foolish to suggest a 20-year-old pitcher is a safe bet to develop, Norris has the type of arsenal, body, and approach to minimize some of the risk normally associated with the developmental process. He’s not a finished product—the command needs a full-grade jump and the secondary stuff needs more consistency—but the profile is advanced and he could move fast in 2014 if it continues to click. I think he reaches Double-A at some point in 2014, and could set himself up for a late-season debut in 2015, assuming the command takes a step forward. Major league ETA: Late 2015 (5) Sean Nolin (LHP) DOB: 12/26/1989 Height/Weight: 6’5” 235 lbs Bats/Throws: L/L Acquired: 6th round, 2010 draft, San Jacinto Junior College (Pasadena, TX) Previous Ranking: #4 (Org), #97 (Top 101) 2013 Stats: The Tools: 5 FB; 6 CH; 5 SL; 5 CB What Happened in 2013: Nolin was solid across two minor-league stops, showing good control and strikeout ability, and even made a not-so-memorable appearance at the major-league level. Strengths: Good size/strength; clean delivery; creates steep plane to the plate; fastball is setup pitch; can work all quadrants; some arm-side life; changeup plays well off fastball; good deception and action in the low 80s; shows both average slider and curveball; mixes well; changes sight lines and planes; good command profile. Weaknesses: Fastball is pedestrian and average at best, often working 89-90 range; command has to be sharp; has to keep hitters off-balance; breaking balls lack plus projections; small margin of error. Overall Future Potential: High 5; no. 3/4 starter Realistic Role: 5; no. 4 starter Risk Factor/Injury History: Low risk; achieved major-league level Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Even if Nolin hits his ceiling, he will not be in a perfect environment for his skill set at the major-league level in Toronto. For a left-hander who is very fly-ball heavy, Rogers Centre (and most other AL East parks) may diminish some of his fantasy numbers—leaving him looking better in the context of neutralized stats. He can be a bulk contributor in wins and strikeouts, while not destroying your ratios. The Year Ahead: Nolin is a very low risk major-league starter, with average stuff but good pitchability and command profile. He can move the ball around, changing sight lines and planes by backing up his fastball with a good changeup with arm-side fade, a loopier curveball in the low-mid-70s, and a hard slider in the mid-80s. He missed bats in the minors but might be more of a weak contact arm at the highest level, keeping hitters off balance and behind in counts. I think he develops into a solid number four starter with a chance for a little more if the fastball plays up. Major league ETA: Debuted in 2013 (6) A.J. Jimenez © DOB: 05/01/1990 Height/Weight: 6’0” 210 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R Acquired: 9th round, 2008 draft, Academia Discipulos de Cristo (Bayamon, PR) Previous Ranking: NR 2013 Stats: .233/.258/.267 at Triple-A Buffalo (8 games), .276/.327/.394 at Double-A New Hampshire (50 games), .429/.448/.643 at High-A Dunedin (9 games) The Tools: 6 arm; 6 potential glove; 5 raw power What Happened in 2013: In his return to action after Tommy John surgery, Jimenez still managed to throw out close to 50 percent of would-be basestealers in Double-A. Strengths: Excellent catch-and-throw skills; arm is plus; footwork is excellent; slow runner but quick feet; good receiver; intangibles for position; good swing at the plate; has some pop; average raw power. Weaknesses: Assorted injuries throughout his career; defense-first catcher; hit tool likely to play below average; game power likely to play below average; well below-average run. Overall Future Potential: 5; major-league regular Realistic Role: High 4; backup catcher; below-average major leaguer Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; numerous injuries on resume; TJ surgery in 2012. Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The least interesting player on this list for fantasy purposes, Jimenez shows up here mostly due to his defensive prowess. He’s really only worth picking up on spec if you’re in a simulation league. The Year Ahead: Jimenez is a very good catcher, a weapon in the running game and with the pitchers. The bat can show some promise, and I actually like his swing; good path to the ball and shows bat speed. I don’t see an impact bat, but with his defensive skill set, a down-the-lineup stick would still give him value as a starter. If he can actually stay on the field for a full season, Jimenez might take a step forward at the plate and emerge as a challenger to Navarro in 2015 or a good trade chip if he forces the issue sooner. Major league ETA: 2014 (7) Franklin Barreto (SS) DOB: 02/27/1996 Height/Weight: 5’9” 174 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R Acquired: International free agent, 2012, Venezuela Previous Ranking: On The Rise 2013 Stats: .204/.259/.333 at rookie level Bluefield (15 games), .299/.368/.529 at complex level GCL (44 games) The Tools: 5 potential hit; 5 potential power; 6 arm; 6 run What Happened in 2013: In his professional debut, the seven-figure Latin American signing was dynamic in the Gulf Coast League and finished the season as a 17-year-old in the Appalachian League. Strengths: Plus athlete; excellent hand-eye coordination; barrels the ball at the plate; hands are extremely impressive; good strength for present body; line drive stroke; hit tool could end up being plus; power could play to average; arm is plus; run is plus; impact potential talent. Weaknesses: Still raw in all aspects on the game; reactive see-ball/hit-ball approach; will chase and lose his setup; arm is strong but wild; actions aren't smooth at short; glove unlikely to stick at short. Overall Future Potential: High 6; first-division/all-star Realistic Role: High 4; utility player/below-average regular Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; short-season resume Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: He’s forever away, but Barreto has the raw ingredients to be a strong fantasy middle infielder (assuming he stays there). In what categories that future upside materializes is yet to be determined, but he makes for an interesting flier regardless. The Year Ahead: Barreto showed off his tools —especially his ability to put his bat on the ball—in his debut, and emerged as a legit professional y and not just an expensive amateur signing. Huge gap between present and future, and you will be hard pressed to find a source that likes his glove enough to project him at the position to the highest level. But he has more than enough arm for third and more than enough athleticism for the outfield, so the Jays have options should a move be required in the coming years. A return trip to the Appalachian League will be in order for Barreto, and given his precocious talent, this is must-see scouting in 2014. Major league ETA: 2018 (8) D.J. Davis (CF) DOB: 07/25/1994 Height/Weight: 6’1” 180 lbs Bats/Throws: L/R Acquired: 1st round, 2012 draft, Stone County HS (Wiggins, MS) Previous Ranking: #5 (Org) 2013 Stats: .240/.323/.418 at rookie level Bluefield (58 games) The Tools: 8 run; 5 potential hit; 5 potential power; 5 arm; 6+ potential glove What Happened in 2013: In his return trip to Bluefield, Davis had an up and down short-season, flashing the impact tools while wearing the inconsistency of a teenager. Strengths: High-end athlete; can run with anybody; range for days; arm is solid; glove projects to plus; shows bat speed at the plate; can drive the baseball; power could be even better than projection (average). Weaknesses: Still very raw on all sides of the ball; reads/routes need work; big swing-and-miss at the plate; struggles with velocity; struggles against spin; more of an athlete than a skill player at this stage. Overall Future Potential: High 6; first-division/all-star Realistic Role: High 4; bench outfielder/below-average regular Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; short-season resume Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: It’s not exaggeration to say that Davis has the highest fantasy ceiling of anyone in this system. He’s also pretty unlikely to reach it. The speed is tantalizing and unlike many other 80-grade runners, Davis actually has the potential to contribute some in the power categories. This is exactly the type of player who sees a value bump in shallower leagues with farm systems due to his extreme risk/reward. The Year Ahead: Davis has a monster ceiling, a prototypical leadoff type with impact speed, enough thunder in the bat to keep pitchers honest, and a plus profile at a premium up-the-middle position. He has a very long way to go on all sides on the ball, and the raw tools are most certainly raw at this point, especially when it comes to game application/utility. But this is the type of developmental project that can pay huge dividends in a few years, as Davis has all-star level talent and five-tool potential. Major league ETA: Late 2017 (9) Chase DeJong (RHP) DOB: 12/29/1993 Height/Weight: 6’4” 185 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R Acquired: 2nd round, 2012 draft, Woodrow Wilson HS (Long Beach, CA) Previous Ranking: On The Rise 2013 Stats: 3.05 ERA (56 IP, 58 H, 66 K, 10 BB) at rookie level Bluefield The Tools: 6 potential FB; 6 potential CB; 5+ potential CH What Happened in 2013: In his professional debut, the former second-round pick made 13 appearances (including 10 starts), missing 66 bats in only 56 innings while walking only 10. Strengths: Very projectable (physically); good pitchability; good arm action; fastball projects to be plus offering; curveball projects to plus; good depth/heavy vertical action; some feel for a changeup; projects to at least average; good command profile. Weaknesses: Fastball is pedestrian at present; works 88-91; can flatten out; curveball can break too early out of the hand; start too high; changeup is below average at present; tendency to overthrow pitch. Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 3 starter Realistic Role: 5; no. 4 starter Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; short-season resume Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: There’s a lot to like about DeJong, and there’s no shame in ranking behind the arms ahead of him here. Like most everyone else here, he’s a long way off, but he is a starter kit for someone who can have an above-average impact in all four starting pitching categories. The Year Ahead: Several sources waxed poetic about Dejong’s arm action and arsenal projection, suggesting the fastball velocity is going to arrive and take the 19-year-old arm to the next prospect level. He has feel for craft, and the curveball already shows its plus potential. If he can take a step forward in full-season ball, Dejong has a chance to emerge as a top 101 prospect in the game. If the fastball starts to tick up, look out. Major league ETA: 2017 (10) Jairo Labourt (LHP) DOB: 03/07/1994 Height/Weight: 6’4” 204 lbs Bats/Throws: L/L Acquired: International free agent, 2011, Dominican Republic Previous Ranking: NR 2013 Stats: 1.92 ERA (51.2 IP, 39 H, 45 K, 14 BB) at rookie level Bluefield The Tools: 6+ potential FB; 6 potential SL; 5 potential CH What Happened in 2013: After 12 complex-level starts in 2012, the 19-year-old climbed a level to the Appalachian League, where the big-bodied Dominican allowed 39 hits in over 51 innings of work. Strengths: Big frame; long legs; arm works well; fastball can sit 89-93; touches a little higher; projects to throw harder; slider has wipeout potential; mid-80s velocity and sharp slice; good pitchability. Weaknesses: Body could be high-maintenance; fastball velocity has yet to regulate in plus range; slider can flatten out; changeup is underdeveloped; more control than command. Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 3 starter Realistic Role: 5; no. 4 starter Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; short-season resume Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The short-season levels of the Blue Jays system are like clown cars that fantasy-relevant pitchers keep climbing out of. As a left-hander who will need to develop a pitch to keep righties in check to remain a starter, Labourt is a slightly higher risk to end up in the pen than some of the other names on this list. The Year Ahead: My sources absolutely love this arm, saying he has the potential to have three plus pitches to go along with good feel for craft. With a big, strong body and a clean arm, you can see a workhorse type as a floor, and if you really want to dream, Labourt could find a home in the middle of a major-league rotation (or perhaps higher if you think the fastball really ticks up during the developmental process). The Jays are ridiculously stacked at the short-season levels, and Labourt has the stuff and pitchability to stand out in a crowded prospect field. Major league ETA: Late 2017 Notable Omission (RHP Roberto Osuna): A healthy Osuna is a likely top-five player in this system, but thanks to Tommy John surgery, the 18-year-old pitcher is on the shelf for the 2014 season. While it’s quite common for arms to make a full-recovery after such a procedure, the ones that improve their chances are the ones with advanced makeup and work ethic, two things that some sources have questioned about Osuna in the past. I can’t speak to the specifics of such opinion, but I do have my own concerns about his already high-maintenance body, and how a prolonged recovery process could affect his physical form. This could either be viewed as an opportunity for Osuna to take a step forward with his physical work ethic or a substantial roadblock, as his approach could hinder his ability to fully recover. Prospects on the Rise 1. RHP Clinton Hollon: Athletic righty with big arm strength and feel for a deep arsenal, Hollon received several votes of confidence from scouts that encouraged me to include him in the top 10. He needs to stay healthy and stay on the field, but the profile is yet another impact rotation arm with projections in the two/three starter range. The Jays are growing these guys on trees in the lower minors. 2. 3B Mitch Nay: A supplemental first-round pick in 2012, Nay has legit above-average projections on the hit/power tools, but several questions about his athleticism and ultimate defensive profile pushed him off the top 10. If you really like the bat, the defensive limitations won’t bother you much, but if he has to eventually move to first base, the bat needs to be a heavy player for him to have value. 3. RHP Miguel Castro: Stop me when this gets old: yet another highly projectable arm at the short-season level, Castro looks the part in the uniform and shows off the live arm on the mound, already working in the low 90s and touching 95/96. No doubt scheduled for another short-season assignment in 2014, Castro is going to be a national prospect after more people get to see this kid on the hill. It wouldn't shock me if he’s securely in the top 10 at this time next season. Factors on the Farm (Prospects likely to contribute at the ML level in 2014) 1. RHP John Stilson: It’s most likely a 7th /8th inning profile rather than a closer, but former Texas A&M arm can bring the funk in short bursts, routinely working his heater in the 95+ range and mixing in a hard, biting slider and heavy changeup. He’s going to be a very good bullpen arm. 2. 3B Andy Burns: Burns turned heads with a strong offensive campaign in the Arizona Fall League, showing good bat-to-ball skills and a mature approach. Unless you really believe in the bat, Burns is probably not going to be a major-league regular, but with some defensive versatility and enough stick to keep pitchers honest, he could find a role as a bench bat or a second-division type if everything comes together at the plate. 3. RHP Deck McGuire: Taken 11th overall in the 2010 draft, McGuire has yet to reach the heights suggested and projected by his lofty draft placement. Stuck in a Double-A purgatory since the end of the 2011 season, the 24-year-old righty has made 57 starts and logged over 320 innings at that level without advancement. It’s a solid-average at best arsenal, but McGuire did show some signs of life in 2013, and if he’s actually allowed to pitch outside the Eastern League in 2014, he might find his way to the majors where his likely role is a backend starter or middle reliever. Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/88 or later) 1. Marcus Stroman 2. Brett Lawrie 3. Aaron Sanchez 4. Alberto Tirado 5. Daniel Norris 6. Anthony Gose 7. Sean Nolin 8. A.J. Jimenez 9. Franklin Baretto 10. D.J Davis After making a splash with offseason acquisitions heading into the 2013 season, Toronto’s plans for immediate improvement failed to come to fruition and the club finished a distant last in the American League East. While pitching depth plagued the Blue Jays last year, this list is stacked with young, potential impact or supporting arms percolating toward the bigs. The system’s top prospect and pitcher Marcus Stroman also checks in at no. 1, edging out third baseman Brett Lawrie. Stroman’s electric arsenal of three potential plus-plus pitches and mentality on the mound point toward a player who can maintain a sustained career stretch as an above-average major leaguer, whether it comes from the rotation or back of the bullpen. That projection put him on top. Lawrie and Sanchez are right there with Stroman in what’s a closely clustered trio at the top. Lawrie earned the nod at no. 2 based on presently being a bit clearer to project out. The feel is that 2014 will begin to show the progression toward being an above-average player at peak, provided a string of good health. Sanchez owns the higher ceiling, and in fact the highest in the system, along with the tools to be a bona fide front-line starter. He could end up headlining this list until ineligible. There is a large enough present gap, however, where it’s gazing at rather than being within arms length of that ceiling. The 21-year-old also has yet to break the 100-inning threshold in a season, and is likely to pass into those uncharted waters while also making the jump into Double-A this year. The fourth through sixth spots feature players with solid-average to above-average upside, but multiple developmental markers or adjustments ahead of them. While outfielder Anthony Gose has made it to the Show, the swing-and-miss in his offensive game leaves the impression the contact is going to be uneven and the identity as a hitter may not reach full establishment. Eighteen-year-old right-handed pitcher Alberto Tirado has the potential to quickly rise in recognizable status over the next couple of seasons as the physical development pushes the raw pitching tools up a notch. His placement represents the potential for considerable growth. Lefty Daniel Norris is sandwiched between them after showing signs of improvement last season. The remainder of the list follows the aforementioned prospect order. Left-handed starter Sean Nolin doesn't have the ceiling of the arms in front of him, but offers the Jays potential stability and value in the back of the rotation. Catcher A.J. Jimenez has a shot to contribute during 2014 and beyond, while Franklin Barreto and D.J. Davis are toolsy, long-lead players in the infancy stages of their development. — Chris Mellen A Parting Thought: If you like tools and ceilings, this is one of the deepest and most attractive farms in baseball, despite using prospects as coupons for major-league talent in recent years.

Anyone mind if I re-post Hurl's post with proper formatting? If not for anyone, then to read it myself. My eyes are bleeding.

This is my problem. I don't like to assume a pitcher (again, hi Morrow) is going to be injured. Which is why I want that 5th spot to see if there's a decent major league pitcher in our depth group (Hutch, Drabek, Happ, Stroman eventually). If we sign two pitchers, that removes two spots from the rotation. We won't get to see these guys until someone does get injured. If one of the proposed two pitchers were guys that you could bring in, and then also demote to the minors if they're s***, I wouldn't have a problem with it. But I'm assuming that if you bring in two new guys, they're both going to be promised rotation spots, and in the event that one of them shits the bed, they'll get far more rope than they should, just because they're new. Izturis and Bonifacio were prime examples of this. They were both absolutely horrific last year, but neither was ever going to get demoted the way Kawasaki would, because one was signed for and the other came in a big trade. I see a lot of pitchers out there that I'd love for the Jays to bring in as a mid-to-high rotation starter. I just don't see us getting two of those (if we even score one), and none of the realistic 'second new pitcher' options appeal to me anymore than our own guys.

We had three last year. Look where we ended up. I actually want that spot open. If the season goes to hell in a handbasket like it always does, I want us doing at least one thing that serves the future. Figuring out if Hutch and co. contain at least one serviceable starter would fit that criteria. I don't want an injury taking place to be the only way for us to see if any of our depth is any good. Of course I should say that I'm taking a realistic approach here. If we were going to get two guys like Tanaka, Garza, Samardzija, etc sure I'd like that scenario far more. That isn't happening though. If "two new starters" means one mid rotation guy (like Samardzija, or see: Josh Johnson) and one old-as-f*** guy to fit the 5th starter role, hoping he doesn't fall apart while on the mound (like Colon, or see: Dickey), I'd rather throw Hutch or Drabek out there instead.

I have nothing against going into the season with only one new SP. If it's someone like Garza, you go into the season with him, Dickey, Buehrle and Morrow. That leaves one spot open (two if one of our f***ing china doll pitchers break a nail) for a 5th starter by committee. Between Hutchison, Drabek, Happ and all the others, there has to be at least one guy that can step up.

Agreed with this to the tee. In terms of specific names; Infante at 2nd, Garza or Tanaka at SP, Baker (signing) or Ruggiano (trade) as platoon for Lind. Infante is just a no-doubt signing, as I said earlier, nothing makes more sense for the Jays. I like Garza far more than Jimenez and Santana, and if Garza is off the board, I would rather choke myself than to see us sign either of the other two. I'm also not a fan of trading for Samardzija. I don't trust AA in trading for starters. The Yankees are probably less of a sure thing on Tanaka now, at least less than before, since now the bulk of their spending on him will be counted towards the luxury tax. Jeff Baker 128 wRC+, .375 wOBA vs lefties in 827 Plate Appearances (Career) 186 wRC+, .452 wOBA vs lefties in 123 Plate Appearances (2013) Justin Ruggiano 127 wRC+, .360 wOBA vs lefties in 353 Plate Appearances (Career) 130 wRC+, .362 wOBA vs lefties in 150 Plate Appearances (2013)

This makes a lot of sense. Robinson Cano isn't the only second base--- you know what, forget it. I don't think Reyes' contract is that bad. The Marlins were probably just being douchebags when they backloaded the contract (I wouldn't give them credit for thinking ahead), but it actually helps out because by the time his pay spikes, his salary won't be considered much in the new market. Hell, I don't even think Buehrle's is that bad. What the hell do you people have against Adam Lind? What the hell is on Cano's face? In this situation, the Yankees lost their first rounder for signing McCann, they lost their Curtis Granderson compensation pick for signing Jacoby Ellsbury, and they lost their Robinson Cano compensation pick for signing Carlos Beltran. Had they not had those compensation picks, then yes, in that event, they'd lose their second rounder (at least, I'm fairly certain).

All he said was that Rasmus was on the Royals board... That doesn't mean anything; they could (and probably do) have more than a hundred names on the same list.

So all of us are going to receive sex as a result of this off-season? Worth.

Imagine how different the past year and coming year would look had AA got the Shields trade he wanted. He admitted that he was about to put together a package centred around d'Arnaud to give the Rays their first potential big-time catcher, but before he could, the Myers offer was already on the table, and the Rays got rape-lust. If that had worked out, we never would have blown our load on RA Wrinkley and would have had a bonafide, proven AL East ace at the top of the rotation. f***ing Royals.

Woah there Aunt Sally. You mentioned straw men? This discussion only seems to be taking turns and ending up in places that I never went, and I'm starting to get bored of it. I never implied that you should keep all your players or sell all your players. I also never implied that Rasmus is infallible and can't fall off a cliff, and that you can sell high on everyone all the time. I never said I wasn't "open to the idea of trading him" in the event that you "gain valuable pieces in return and you can find a suitable replacement for him". Except that those terms sing true for every single player in the majors, with "suitable" being the objective term there. If I can get valuable assets for a player and find a suitable replacement for him, why would I say no to that in any case, unless it's a guy like Jeter or Trout, who have value outside of the actual playing field? Despite the fact that I never said any of the things you seem to be responding to, now that you have said them, I would like to challenge a few of those points. First off, you say that Edwin, Jose and Rasmus are all at or around their peaks, yes? So a 27 year old toolsy center fielder, and two power hitters, one being a 30 year old tank 1B and the other being a 33 year old athletic/injury prone RF are at the same point in their careers? You also say that there is a lot of evidence to support that a player falling off a cliff offensively is probable. I agree. But is it still as probable when the player in question is, again, 27 years old? Nobody is saying he's a 5 win player; I'm not even saying he's a 4 win player. But 3 wins? For a guy that has averaged 2.6 wins in a season thus far in his career and is entering his prime with two important above-average tools on his belt (defense and power)? People here are looking to trade him for prospects, players that you can only wish some day become worth 3 wins. That is a legitimate expectation for Rasmus going forward. He's gotten better every season that he's worn this jersey. If you're still uncertain as to what my argument is, here's a TLDR: I'm not opposed to trading Rasmus, the same way I'm not opposed to trading Bautista or anyone else. But I believe that the Blue Jays should look at him as a potential All-Star. Nobody is going to pay them that price, which is why it only makes sense to keep him, and (in my opinion) extend him. The upside far outweighs the risk. Can it fail? Yes, it did for Romero. But Romero is far from an anchor or an albatross. Rasmus will always be a player that, even if his contract goes south, you could eat half of his salary and sell him to a team that believes they can fix him. I also believe that "selling high" on a player like Rasmus is a huge exaggeration. Players of this type and track record always have several question marks and you're never going to get full value on a guy like that. You always have the potential to get more out of him yourself.

I don't care if it looks as if I'm building straw men, based on what you see over most message boards online, more Jays fans want to trade Rasmus than the one's that want to keep him, and more fans want to sign Choo over the one's that don't. It's the same way that most people thought Bautista would never be worth his extension and that it was a stupid mistake not to sell high on him, and the same people that rallied for selling high on EE at the trade deadline. Also, the majority of what I posted was not actually directed at people who want Butler for Rasmus, it was directed at the people who want to trade him for prospects. That was pretty clear.

I did say that Lind was better than Butler in almost every way, because he was. That isn't an opinion. It's a fact. You know, with numbers and stuff? Lind had the better WAR, wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS and OPS+, while having the same batting average and BABIP. He was even marginally better on both the field and on the basepaths. Whether you think one or the other will be more valuable in 2014 is a different story; that can be debated through the use of opinions, projections and all that other meaningless crap. What can't be debated is that Lind was straight-up and simply better in 2013. He was the more valuable player, and the one that produced the better numbers. That is a fact.

I never said that. It's the fact that every team will ask that same question to the Jays to undermine his trade-value. Nobody is going to offer a package worth his near-5 WAR season. I don't believe Colby has the true ability to maintain a .350 BABIP because I have no way to know that. But I also know that in the seasons preceding Bautista and Encarnacion's extensions, there were just as many doubts, if not more. What I know is that Colby had elite batted-ball distance last year, one of the best in the Major Leagues (as evidenced by the chart I posted, which can be found here. I know that he has a legit power tool that is helping him deal with his inexplicable K-rate. I know that he's a good defender, one of the tools that declines the slowest. I know that despite missing nearly 50 games last year, he was the 6th most valuable centerfielder. I know that I'd rather have him in CF over Goseavarria. And then there's this: http://gamereax.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/rasmusswing.gif If I'm paying to see baseball, that's one of the things I'm paying for.

I don't know why anyone would see Gardner as the odd-man out in an outfield that employs Ichiro. Think it's a pretty easy decision, you go with an outfield of LF-Ellsbury, CF-Gardner, RF-Soriano (Beltran as DH) and have Ichiro as a utility off the bench in the role that Jones/Ibanez played a couple seasons ago, or you just get rid of him. Beltran makes a lot more sense than Soriano at DH especially when you want to rest his 75 year old Rey Mysterio knees. They probably felt more comfortable with it, since they got one back today off Cano. So do I. More than what is considered acceptable within the limits of being straight. ftfy ftfy

You would trade the idiotic price it would cost to bring in Butler for the upgrade (of -0.4 WAR in 2013) he'd provide over Lind? Kudos, I wouldn't. Yes as in Aaron Hill. Anthopoulos said his war room had every single player's name in it. I'm sure if it was possible, Hill is one of the ones he'd actually like to acquire (re-acquire?) given our current situation at 2B (which by the way was worse than catching last year, fyi).

Yeah most teams have settings like this where they track player moves and brainstorm about ideas. Almost every available player, and most that aren't available, are usually on these boards. The Royals have Rasmus on their list of wants the same way the Jays have Hill, Kemp and Price on their list of wants. It doesn't necessarily mean anything, let alone foreshadow an incoming move.

You're right. Even though Lind provided more value and was better than Butler in almost every way imaginable last year, switching out Lind for Butler would mean that we also get to ditch redneck Cletus off our roster, since that is the proposed payment for Butler.

http://gyazo.com/f5133318cf28da3a4e3b527f6fb959e0.png http://gyazo.com/7cf1ed676eed13fef4aac7216dc55725.png Totally looks like a guy who's never succeeded off a high BABIP before, and a guy without the ability and potential to do so again.

Because he's an excellent, awesome player. We need Butler. He's probably the most sure thing you could posibly attain. Let's trade away Rasmus and Bautista for prospects+Butler. That way we can guarantee ourselves a World Series. Hell, just let Butler bat all nine-times through the order, the rest of the team can just ride on the coattails of his .124 ISO and .116 wRC+ from 2013. No baseball-expert with half a brain and one-nut would recommend dumping two of your three best players for a return that ultimately targets Billy "Country Breakfast" Butler in a year you're looking to compete, which is what makes it SUCH a great move. NOBODY would see it coming. We'll catch the MLB by both storm and surprise. We need Butler.

Hey guys, disregard my last post, it's full of ********. I just came up with a great idea. Let's get rid of Rasmus and his 6.5M projected salary (because I mean, a 27 year old player that has always had incredible potential is probably only going to see success by fluke from here on out) to the first team that bites on him with a completely unproven MLB-ready prospect, and replace him with Shin-Soo Choo! Now the few rational ones among you please bear with me as I try to explain and convince you to join our genius hive-mentality. You see, Choo is older than Rasmus by 4 years, which means he's definitely got more vetrin presents. Lots and lots of them. It would also give us the opportunity to downgrade on the basepaths, while simultaneously downgrading a defense that was already bottom-third in the MLB last year! Think of the range-spectacle we'd see out there with Old Man Melk, Joey Hip-Replacements and Mr. Choo! People would buy season tickets just to consistently watch the circus out there! Ergo, more money that we can use to further extend Choo with! We'd also be able to to pay Choo between three to four times as much, which would prevent us from giving money to rednecks like Cletus in the future! Now I know it might not make sense, given that Cletus is younger, faster and posted a significantly better WAR/150 but then ag--- oh f*** look! A BANDWAGON! Let's get on it before it passes by this station! What was I talking about again? Oh who cares. It's a win-win-win, no-brainer situation. Look at all those hyphens. Let's sell those for prospects too!