TwistedLogic

My brother-in-law looks like an utter moron anytime he's around a computer or any form of modern technology. He buys bootleg movies because he doesn't know how to download them, he doesn't know how to install an antivirus on his computer, and he's very socially awkward and has absolutely no awareness of pop culture and the new generation, which will probably be a bit of a concern as his kids grow older. He's also a millionaire surgeon at the head of the hospital where he works. I agree with your post.

I think this is where it comes down to the semantics of the term scouting. If we're talking about a bunch of old turds sitting in the stands and we're talking about the concept of scouts and their opinions themselves, then I agree with you guys, that they're essentially useless at double-A and above. When I use the term scouting, I'm talking about the entire concept of scouting in itself, which is to analyze the visual aspects of a player's game that don't show up in numbers (poor throwing mechanics, a messy hitch in a swing, etc). To pick out flaws or potential changes in a player's mechanics and use that information to better them. Adjusting Sanchez's mechanics to try and help him put off injury as long as he can, realizing how good Stroman's sinker is and encouraging him to use it more, realizing that Bautista has elite bat speed, and simply needs to rework his stance and swing to become a good player, etc. I'm referring very much to the coaching aspect of scouting, and I don't think that that facet of the game is ever really useless at any level.

I know very little about defensive metrics, so I'd appreciate your opinion on this. What do you think about this guy's comment on that same article? http://i.gyazo.com/e2a2ec8e7a895be41b000b7243ca10c2.png I'll admit that I haven't heard much mention of this DRA metric before.

But then how do you classify or weigh situations like that of Bautista, Donaldson and Encarnacion? Bautista's game events made him look like a pretty mediocre player for a long time (162 ISO in 2000+ PA's at the major league level from 2004 to 2009), while scouts always said he had good power. Mechanical adjustments (which fall into the realm of scouting) added .200 points to his SLG and turned him into a .300+ ISO hitter almost instantaneously. I understand that numbers begin to outweigh scouting monumentally at higher levels, and especially at the major league, but I don't think scouting is ever completely irrelevant either.

I agree with this, but I think there's a pretty sizable gulf between not looking at scouting at double-A or above, and JFaS' statement that "scouting is pretty much only useful for high school and some college guys and young internationals."

His draft series was great

Do you disagree with his findings then? I'm not being snide here, I'm genuinely curious if you think he had flaws in his piece, because the way he presented it has made me more optimistic for Hutchison than I was previously. The article and excerpt that I've been referring to: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/two-pitchers-underrated-by-both-era-and-fip/ http://i.gyazo.com/599102abdb8b883e902342517f052e8b.png

http://rs2img.memecdn.com/a-wild-bush-appeared_o_400859.gif

I think Blengino is a good writer for FanGraphs. If every writer who's work you appreciate is one of your personal heroes, then that's probably just a you thing.

http://weknowmemes.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/no-u-grandma.jpg

The entire study was based literally and exclusively around numbers alone, so I find it pretty hypocritical for you to create an ad hominem based on his reputation.

I understand this. It uses the same method for every team, and it is probably just as accurate or inaccurate on these types of players for every team. My main point has been that the Rays simply have more of these young/inexperienced players than almost any other club in the majors. Assuming projections aren't particularly exceptional at predicting future value for players with as little service time as most of the Rays roster, it stands to reason that there is more give, both upwards and downwards, on their projected end-of-season record than most other cases.

At this time last year, Moogy was arguing that the Jays fifth starter options (Happ, Hutchison, Stroman, Drabek, Redmond, etc) wouldn't combine for 1 win, and that Izturis posting 1 win was a better bet. Even partly through the past season he was s***ing on Stroman because of his creepy obsession with his "small hands". Also speaking about bad predictions, I suggested that we sign Infante to a 4/40 contract, and as it turns out, I actually got my ass handed to me by Gruber:

"but projections have their own weaknesses and they constantly miss. I think the 2015 Rays are a team that the projections will miss on." You don't have to agree with me, you can even agree with NJH in calling me dumb and obtuse. Projections aren't flawless. They don't account for psychology, they don't account for growing pains in young players, they don't account for mid-season trades. Based on Blengino's recent study on Hutchison and Odorizzi, there is very clearly a psychological aspect or hesitation present in younger players with even the highest potential. There isn't enough past data for these players for me to be comfortable in their projections. The system simply assumes that every one of the Rays' low service time, high-potential players is going to take a step up. I don't see that happening in the same way that I don't think Travis is simply going to hop out of double-A and be a 2-win player. You can call that cognitive bias or being misinformed or whatever you want. People that take a similar stance to that of yours on these subjects are lucky in that they have a built-in cop out. If at the end of the season, the Rays do finish with less than 77 wins, you can easily say that I simply got lucky in predicting the correct outcome, and that the projections simply missed the mark because a, b and c events happened that the projections simply couldn't predict. I'm only making that argument a year in advance, in saying that I think that the a, b and c's will indeed occur, given the lack of experience or long-term consistency on their roster, and that the projections will miss for those reasons.

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/1921-Omar-Infante-seeking-4-years-40M-Signs-with-KC-Royals?p=160285&viewfull=1#post160285

I didn't use it as evidence. I used it as an example that projections aren't infallible, which with the kind of reaction that has resulted in my prediction of under 77.5, you'd think that people see projections that way. It doesn't take a lot to go wrong for an 83 projection to end up in a 77. Sure you could point out negative things about every club, but there's probably very few clubs with as few sure things as the Rays. They lost Joyce, Zobrist, Escobar, Myers and Price and replaced them with Kiermaier, Franklin, Cabrera, Souza and Smyly. You can't possibly believe that a roster around the latter group has a high chance of outperforming a roster built around the former. Sure they can if enough of them realize their potential, but that's not something you can absolutely count on. The only safe bets on that team are Longoria, Jennings, Cobb and McGee. Maybe Rivera if you factor in his framing and maybe Smyly if you believe strongly that he'll get better. There isn't a single other player on the club where you could definitively say that barring injury, they'll post 2 wins. The Jays have four guys on the level of Longoria with Bautista, Edwin, Donaldson and Martin, they've got three arms that you could project as safely for two wins as you can Smyly and Cobb, in Stroman, Dickey and Buehrle and just as many high potential guys to surround them with as the Rays do (Smoak and Franklin, Hutchison and Cobb, Cecil and Boxberger, Travis and Souza, Saunders and Kiermaier, etc, etc, etc). For the last time, I'm not saying that the Rays are not a team that can post 83 wins, I simply don't believe that they will. Too much has to break right for them. Projections are the best possible method for predicting the future as we have right now, but projections have their own weaknesses and they constantly miss. I think the 2015 Rays are a team that the projections will miss on.

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I like this one. I'm gonna raise you one here and say that while Estrada will post a positive WAR, Hutch (3-4) and Stroman (4-5) will combine for 8 WAR on their own. While wildly unlikely to begin with, I think it is a bit more realistic to assume that Norris is among the 1-2-3 and Sanchez is the one that gets Tommy John. At least that's how I'd put it.

lmao, valid points I guess. I thought maybe his gut was popping out a since he seems to be leaning back a bit. He's a dick if he actually gained significant weight over the offseason after signing that contract.

Is there in any way a possibility that he was just caught at a bad angle? Does anyone remember all that ******** flavor-of-the-week "Derek Eater" stuff that came out when someone took an inexplicably poor photo of Jeter that made him look like he was fat and out of shape, and then when he was next interviewed, he looked great? I bet Sandoval is just as big as he's been, it would be really poor form to eat himself to death just because he's been insured with a big payday.

I've noticed that a lot of people in the baseball world like to make predictions for the upcoming season each year, and they like to look back and see how they did a year later. I think this can be a fun little activity of our own, where we can make our own annual predictions thread and see how everyone did when the year is done. Your predictions can be as bold and stupid as you want them to be (I once predicted that Jacob Anderson would have a .400 BA season in the MLB some day) or boring and obvious (the Padres won't make the post season in 2015), or focused on a specific facet of the game (predicting the end of season standings; predicting where certain prospects will end up) 2014 Predictions: Looking back on the last year, I was correct in predicting that Ubaldo Jimenez would be an atrocious signing, that Adam Lind was a better player than Billy Butler going forward, that the Jays should have pursued Headley and McCarthy as hard as they could during trade season, and that as long as the Jays were unable to sign Tanaka or Garza, they were better served going into the season with no new starting pitchers, so that young guys like Stroman and Hutchison got a chance to show how good they were. Conversely, I struck out hideously in predicting that Ervin Santana would be as bad as Jimenez, that Rasmus was a perfect extension candidate, and that Infante was as close to a sure thing in the free agent market as you could find. 2015 Predictions: For the upcoming season, I'm simply going to stick to the predictions I've already made in various threads over the past few weeks. * The Rays won't win more than 77 games. * Marcus Stroman will be a better pitcher in 2015 than he was in 2014. * Rowdy Tellez will be a better prospect at this time next year than Mitch Nay. * Predicting the Top 15 prospects for 2016: http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/4372-Basebal-Pprospectus-Top-101-prospects-2015?p=512352#post512352 * Sleepers, Busts and Breakouts: http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/261-Blue-Jays-prospects-Sleeper-bust-and-new-legit-guy?p=512798&viewfull=1#post512798 Bold long-term prediction: Jeff Hoffman and Max Pentecost will be the two absolute best players to come out of the first round in the 2014 First Year Player Draft.

It has absolutely nothing to do with want though. I don't care how the Rays do. I'm indifferent to them. I want the Orioles to do poorly more than any other team in the majors, yet I voted the over for them, so I can't possibly see why you'd think my opinion has anything to do with want. I think the Rays are a good club with good management, and I understand the love for the organization. That said, I think their days of being underrated monsters is over, and I think that at this point, many on this board actually overrate them. The Rays were projected for 86 wins going into 2014, and they finished with 77 wins. They are now projected for 83 wins, and I think they will again finish at 77 or less. I don't like an infield of Franklin/Cabrera, and I don't believe Franklin is going to be a 1.5 win player next year. I believe that projecting Souza and Kiermaier, both players that I actually like, for 4.3 WAR is a bit too optimistic. I also like Rivera, but assuming that this past year wasn't an outlier, and that he's suddenly become a valuable major leaguer at the age of 31, and will post 2.0 non-framing wins next year is optimistic. Loney bouncing back at the age of 31 with a 1.7, a guy who's only done that twice in the last seven years, is also optimistic. The Rays have a good pen, but I think that even the projections agree with me that their rotation is overrated. The 83 projected wins depend heavily on a very large amount of what-ifs from their position players, and I think enough can go wrong for them to easily fall 6 wins shy of that projection. Outside of Longoria and maybe Jennings, they have no sure things on the field. Franklin, Souza and Kiermaier may be good. Rivera may suddenly be an above average bat. Loney may not be s***. These guys may look great a year from now, but I don't like the uncertainty going into this season. I disagree with the projections that the Jays are only 1-win better than the Rays, and while I admit that the Rays can easily outperform the 77.5 that the bookies have given them if enough breaks right, I'm comfortable in predicting that they won't.

I've wondered lately; why are people with names like ScientificReason and RealAccountant among the dumbest members of the board?

I'm not putting down money on it. I'm just betting that the Rays will go under. Does that bother you?

Which is why I'm betting under.