TwistedLogic

Had Tommy John (September 2015), then fractured his elbow before returning from Tommy John (July 2016), then refused a demotion to Syracuse (November 2016) and became a free agent. He could still end up back with the Nats.

Well... he's right? He's talking about what they actually did. He isn't saying Howell is better than Cecil going forward. Howell's actual results are nearly half a run better than Cecil's since 2013. RA9-WAR has them even over that time.

This should go over well:

Even though we've established that using PA as a league-wide cutoff is useless and that the average player will post 2 WAR in 650 PA, I decided to quickly finish with my search since I had already started it. Wanted to see at what point does the average player in the pool contribute 2 WAR, regardless of how much more he played beyond that. It seems that point is 300 plate appearances: 2016: 268 players with 300+ PA: mean WAR of 2.10 2015: 268 players with 300+ PA: mean WAR of 2.02 2014: 263 players with 300+ PA: mean WAR of 2.10 2013: 277 players with 300+ PA: mean WAR of 2.05 2012: 265 players with 300+ PA: mean WAR of 2.11 2011: 265 players with 300+ PA: mean WAR of 2.03 The average WAR among players with at least 300 PA each year seems to hover around 2.0-2.1 WAR. Narrowing or widening the pool any further makes the number too big or too small. Interesting, even if the information is worthless.

Yeah, that's pretty much what I was looking for. Thanks for the clarity. Pretty crazy that Schoop was able to get into all 162 games and post exactly 2.0 WAR. Even had a .305 BABIP and a 97 wRC+. Pretty much the exactly average MLB player. Almost hilariously average. Schoop had a teammate almost as average as him, too. Trumbo appeared in 159 games and 667 PA and posted a 2.2 fWAR.

I appreciate the response and all of the extra context. I can understand that in theory, a 2 WAR player can be called exactly average. My main point, and what I'm still unclear on, is that in most years, a player that does post 2 wins above replacement is generally better than the average. And this idea that a 2-win player is theoretically average is often then directly translated by people into saying saying "Carlos Gonzalez posted 2 wins in 2016, and therefore he was average". Well no, Carlos Gonzalez was better than a lot more than half the league. I understand what you mean when you say that including PAs does "weird stuff that doesn't make sense", and I'm sure that there are better numbers out there than something as basic as PA, but this is where there is a point of confusion for me. "If a player has calculated exactly zero runs but played a full season..." What is a full season? How is that determined if not by PA? A player who posted 2 WAR in 100 games and 450 PA was not equivalent to a player who posted 2 WAR in 162 games and 700 PA. Maybe equivalent in value but not in quality of play. How many plate appearances/innings do you have to play, in which you've calculated exactly zero runs under your five listed components, to where you hit 2 WAR?

Russell Martin was an above average player in 2016 without his framing being taken into account. My post wasn't meant to be pedantic. I was simply clarifying that the idea that a 2-WAR player is average is generally inaccurate. Unless you're limiting your criteria to quite a small portion of the MLB's player base, a 2 WAR player is almost always above average.

Yes, I've read the FanGraphs glossary entry on WAR, and their poorly written blurb about "average WAR" is what stemmed my post above. What do they mean by "average full-time position player"? How many plate appearances do they use for a cut-off? Because the average qualified position-player in 2016 was worth almost a full win more than 2 WAR. And what the hell is an "average bench player"? An average bench player is a below-average full-time player. That's why he's a bench player. When people repeat the idea that an average player is 2 WAR, they aren't specifying whether that is an average among players who reached a certain playing time. Simply saying "average player" implies that you are including all players, including bench players and MVPs. And in most cases, a player who has posted 2 WAR in a season is actually above average.

I know you weren't making any arguments here, but I believe one thing should definitely be clarified. When we say "average is 2 WAR", are we talking about the mean or the median? Because I think a distinction is important. When you're talking about baseball, where such a large amount of the total WAR per season is contributed by the game's elite, the "average player" (the median) is almost always more valuable than the "average WAR" (the mean). Said in another way, even if the average or mean WAR is 2, a 2 WAR player is actually quite a bit above average (he is above the median; he is better than more players than he is worse than). Examples from 2016: 1 or more Plate Appearances - 971 Players, 569.5 WAR - Mean: 0.6 WAR - Median: 0.0 WAR (Justin Morneau) 50 or more Plate Appearances - 542 Players, 585.9 WAR - Mean: 1.1 WAR - Median: 0.6 WAR (TJ Rivera) 100 or more Plate Appearances - 438 Players, 592.1 WAR - Mean: 1.4 WAR - Median: 0.9 WAR (Hyun Soo Kim) 300 or more Plate Appearances - 268 Players, 562 WAR - Mean: 2.1 WAR - Median: 1.7 WAR (Giancarlo Stanton) Qualified: - 146 Players, 433.9 WAR - Mean: 3.0 WAR - Median: 2.6 WAR (Hanley Ramirez) In baseball, if you have a player on your roster who is contributing the same amount as the mean WAR under any set of criteria, he is by default an above average player. That is, as long as by "above average" you mean "better than half of his peers". TLDR: A 2 WAR player is actually above average, even if the "average WAR" throughout the league is 2. Russell Martin (1.9 WAR) was an above average player in 2016. Note: Sorry for the semantic satiation. Not actually sorry. Average. Average average. Avg. Average batting average. Above average average average. Every edge's edgy average.

I don't really give a s*** about what they wear. The one reason I'm against this is that a lot more plebs will be buying the s***** red jerseys and wearing them to the game, and the wide shots of the crowd won't be "all blue". Red just makes people look like away fans.

Pretty swell reaction from Pudge upon finding out that he's in the Hall.

Thome, Chipper, Vlad, Hoffman are pretty much locks for 2018. I wonder if Edgar can make enough of a jump to join them.

Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Ivan Rodriguez. http://baseballhall.org/hof/class-of-2017 Trevor Hoffman missed by 1%.

The darkness of this day continues to spread.

30 minutes from the announcement. They're about to talk about Schilling hurting his Hall case on the live stream. This should be juicy.

The official MLB.com Hall of Fame stream is live: http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/7417714/v1218530583/live-mlb-network-simulcast Coverage will run 3 PM to 7 PM EST, with the official announcement coming at 6 PM.

JP Arencibia has retired.

I probably worded that poorly. I meant beyond actually signing Jose Bautista to play for the Blue Jays, the largest factor in how the contract was structured and why it took so long to sign. That last comment was meant to be facetious anyway, even if I do believe that Bautista is an egomaniac.

http://i.imgur.com/0vgDE0n.png

Heyman is a hoot!

Bonds but no Clemens. Smith but no Wagner. McGriff over Walker. Posada over Bagwell. If anyone other than Heyman had posted this, it would have infuriated me. For some reason I can't get mad at Heyman. He's too adorable. Edit: f*** off, Shermanator.

#1 in the AL by a mile as well.