Statcast introduces Catch Probability for 2017
By Mike Petriello, MLB.com Columnist
Perhaps more than any other area of baseball, measuring outfield defense has always been made more difficult simply because perception, in so many cases, is not reality. Which outfielder made the better play -- the one who made a flying grab to catch the ball, or the one who made the exact same play look easy because he was faster or took a better route?
You know which one of those plays made it onto nightly highlight reels for the last three decades, and for so much of that time, it was the eye test that ruled the day. But in the back of your mind, you always knew that there's no such thing as style points when grading defense. You knew that sometimes the play that didn't look like anything special was actually extremely special.
Of course, sometimes the plays that look great are exactly that, but we'll get to that in a second. Today, we're going to take what we hope is a step forward by introducing one of several new Statcast™ metrics we'll roll out in 2017: Catch Probability. (See also: Hit Probability.) It's a simple number that can be applied to every tracked batted ball to the outfield, and it's on a scale of 0-100 percent, where a zero percent Catch Probability is "that ball is never, ever caught" and a 100 percent Catch Probability is "caught by everyone, always."
Read the Rest: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/217802340/statcast-introduces-catch-probability-for-2017/
Statcast introduces Hit Probability for 2017
By Mike Petriello, MLB.com Columnist
If the 2016 title-winning Cubs taught us anything, it's that untangling pitching skill from defensive talent is more difficult than ever. Did Chicago have a best-in-baseball 3.15 ERA because starters like Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks were so talented and avoided hard contact? Or because a defense led by Jason Heyward, Addison Russell and Javier Baez was historically good and simply converted those balls into outs better than anyone?
The answer, then and now, was likely "both." We know that defense functions as a unit that includes both pitcher and fielders, and we know that in order to put up the lowest Batting Average on Balls in Play in more than three decades, as the Cubs did with their .255 mark, both pitchers and fielders have to be doing something right. But how much of each?
Today, let's take a step towards trying to answer that question, by introducing one of our new Statcast™ metrics for 2017: Hit Probability. (See also: Catch Probability.) While there's a lot of complicated math that goes into it, it attempts to answer a very simple question: Based on the exit velocity and launch angle of the batted ball, how likely was the ball to land for a hit? That's trying to get to the heart of what a pitcher and hitter control while attempting to take out the effects of defense and ballpark.
Read the Rest: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/217705412/statcast-introduces-hit-probability-for-2017/