Hey guys, this is what I have so far. Let me know if there is anything else you want me to touch on. I don't know if you want me to expand on his defense or just keep it focus on his hitting. I was thinking about how "clutch" he has been but I hate that stat.
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Can He Really Smoak It?
Originally noticed by scouts whom were initially looking at his teammate and friend, Matt Wieters, Justin Smoak became a top 5 rated talent in the 2008 draft due to his ability to hit and hit for power. Taken 11th overall by the Rangers, Smoak continued to impress in the minors with his bat, being ranked by Baseball America in the Ranger’s organization in having best power, best strike zone discipline and best hitter for average. He was so highly regarded he was the main piece in the Cliff Lee trade from Seattle to Texas.
Looking at his Major League career so far, it has been a disappointment in terms of his ability. Some could be wondering, where did his ability to hit and hit for power go? In actuality it may have not gone anywhere. The overall popular stats used by many such as batting average does not reflect well on Smoak, career .224 hitter, however the advanced statistics show a different story.
Justin Smoak has hit the ball hard. Really, really hard. Smoak’s quality of contact stat for Hard% is 37.3%, good for 33rd in the league for players with over 100 PA and just behind Tulowitzki (37.8%) for the team lead. The stat represents the percentage of a hitter’s batted ball that have been hit with authority and while there is no guarantee, it is more likely that a hard hit ball will fall for hit than not.
Smoak batted ball distance has also increased each year since 2011:
http://cdn.fangraphs.com/fantasy/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Justin-Smoak-Distance-Trend.png
Image per fangraphs.
He hits it hard and he hits it far.
Smoak also has not lost his plate discipline. He has a relatively high strikeout at a career 22.7% K, to be expended from a power hitter, he also has a respectable career 10.6% BB. For his career his 0-Swing% has been 27.5% and steadily declined over the past 3 years from 29.2% - 2013, 27.8% - 2014 and 25.2% - 2015. He is chasing less pitches outside the zone, but mind you there is understandably some discrepancy in this data as in 2013 he had nearly twice as many PA as 2014 and 2015.
So what has prevented Smoak from consistently displaying his ability? Part of it did have to do with his park, Safeco Fields in Seattle. It is a pitcher friendly ball park where most fly balls are caught and don’t leave the park. He had a 15.4% xHR/FB vs actual 9.7% HR/FB rate and low BABIP, .238 at home. He is also close to an extreme pull hitter at a career 49% - Pull %, 32.1% - Cent % and 18.9% - Oppo %. He doesn’t hit many the other way, making him easy to defend with the shift. As shown by his spray chart below vs RHP, as he is predominantly a LHH, most of his hits are towards 2B.
http://i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac23/jessieg235813/Smokey_zps3nopfhki.png
He has been trending overall in the right direction as far as has Oppo % as it has steadily increased over the past 3 years 17.3% - 2013, 22.8% - 2014 and 23.2% - 2015.
Justin can Smoak it. There is still potential in his bat and while he may never win the batting championship he can likely provide 10-20 HRs over a season while playing great defense at 1B. There is value in that.