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Orgfiller

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Everything posted by Orgfiller

  1. Orgfiller
    The Rays lose another one. Drew Rasmussen, who just dominated last night, straight to the 60-day IL with a flexor strain.
  2. Orgfiller
    You can't say two full MLB seasons when those stretches only add up to a season's worth of PAs/games sample size lol. Wearing down is also a pretty normal thing to happen to a catcher as the season drags on. Yeah obviously Kirk doesn't have the body type to handle catching 130 games, but at least he stays healthy enough to catch the bulk of games and provide value at DH when he's starting behind the plate. I also think to some extent him catching as few games as he does is in part due to our luxury in riches at the catching position. If Jansen didn't exist and Moreno didn't get his feet wet last year, Kirk probably could have caught close to/over 100 games, but the team can afford to DH him to give him rest and still get production out of his bat. This is all to say, I'd take Kirk over Jansen every time. But it's great that we have both and hopefully they both stay healthy these next couple of seasons.
  3. Orgfiller
    It's definitely ironic. Kirk has the hitting and defense of Realmuto, but Moreno has the speed and he's the one with the Realmuto ceiling lol. Yes I'm being obtuse.
  4. Orgfiller
    Since everyone keeps bringing this up as "the only time Kirk has had power", from April 2022 - June 2022 Kirk had 246 PAs with a 166 wRC+, I don't know how to get the WAR values for that, but presumably it would've been much better on a WAR/game basis given that he also provides very good defense behind the plate. Unfortunately for Kirk, he was actually healthy all year so his numbers understandably took a tumble (regressed) the rest of the season. But if he got injured for the year on July 1st then Kirk would look incredible on a WAR/game basis. This is why this argument about Jansen doesn't sit too well for me, yeah he was good, of course, but he never sustained the success because he would get injured for long stretches at any point where his numbers could've regressed. Jansen's numbers btw did not come over "nearly two full seasons", but rather barely one full one.
  5. Orgfiller
    Yup, Kirk is second since the start of 2022 in blocking runs above average, with 18 BRAA, trailing Realmuto by 2 in half as many chances. He's elite at it.
  6. Orgfiller
    I think Kirk's defense is really underrated. Last year he was a much better framer than Jansen and also an excellent blocker, he's not just some potato behind the dish. Game calling and managing the pitching staff is such a difficult thing to quantify that I don't even know if I can accept that as a real argument, he was Manoah's personal catcher last year and look how well that went for us. Manoah sure likes pitching to him, and I don't see why the rest of the pitching staff wouldn't either. In fact, I just looked it up. Kirk leads the entire MLB in blocking runs above average: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-blocking?players=592663-2023-143&selected_idx=0 The man is a rock behind the plate.
  7. Orgfiller
    Jansen's lack of availability is a legitimate concern though, and I still feel like a portion of his success has been SSS. Jansen's PAs from 2021-2023 are the same amount as Kirk had all of 2022. The projections like Jansen, but they still view Kirk as more valuable on a per rate basis. Jansen is both prone to injury and hot/cold streaks, if he wasn't injured for a lot of 2021 and 2022 there's no way of knowing if his numbers would look any better or (most likely) any worse since he would've also had to deal with stretches of less than elite performance. Like he's not the true talent 140 wRC+ bat from last year, so if he regresses to 115-120 over a full season he's going to look worse on a per-game basis.
  8. Orgfiller
    But why? Jansen has never had a season anywhere as good as Kirk's 2022, and is closer to exiting his prime than Kirk is to entering his lol. Defensively he wasn't even as good as Kirk last year, and the latter's bat is better. His only true advantage over Kirky is he's a significantly better runner, much like 99% of the league lol.
  9. Orgfiller
    Kirk's current wRC+ is higher than any leaguewide offensive position, including 1B and DH. Jansen has been struggling, but like Springer to a lesser extent is also heavily underperforming his xWOBA. He's been closer to a 90 wRC+ bat than the garbage 55 he actually has.
  10. Orgfiller
    Jesus Christ you're insufferable these days. Statcast was just malfunctioning. Neither the location or the velocity of Diekman's pitches were recorded properly. He threw a few sinkers, a sweeper and what appear to be a couple of changeups. https://old.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/13fl21z/rekrabmb_the_rays_have_jake_diekman_throwing/jjvlvua/ Good luck to the Rays in fixing Diekman's command, the stuff was never a problem.
  11. Orgfiller
    Ironic you would say this, since Eovaldi early in his career was known as being that starter with a 99 mph fastball that was pretty mediocre and couldn't strike anyone out. So yeah, I don't think him with worse stuff would actually make him a valuable pitcher at all. And he does get injured a lot. Would love to have him, but he's certainly prone to breaking.
  12. Orgfiller
    At no point in his career has Kirk been "awful offensively". A catcher who's league average offensively at his worst is a guy every team in the league would take, not to mention how much offensive upside he actually does have. He has elite bat to ball skills, a great eye, and has displayed power previously, he's just in a funk right now hitting too many groundballs. Once he fixes his swing again he'll be a force in our lineup. Moreno has more upside overall because of his athleticism meaning he can provide plus defense and average baserunning, but in no way does he have better hitting potential than Kirk who has hit his whole life, minors and majors.
  13. Orgfiller
    While not a bad theory, the irony of this is Orelvis' K rate is actually down while his power output is better than last season's, with no change in walk rate. His batted ball profile must just be god awful that this is leading into a .051 BABIP in the minor leagues. He's barely hit any line drives and every single flyball of his must be a moonshot, if only he could correct his bath path...on the surface it seems his swing decisions may be getting better, but he also could just be swinging at bad pitches and making weak pop up contact more often than last year.
  14. Orgfiller
    It's very unlikely that Horwitz can play a passable outfield, since if he could they would obviously want his bat at the more valuable defensive home rather than sticking him at first where the reports already aren't too fond of his defense. He's only gotten a handful of games there probably just to see if there's anything there, but the fact that he's DH'd as much as he's played LF the last two years probably tells you enough about what they think of his ability to handle the outfield lol. Belt on his deathbed is putting up the numbers that Horwitz projects for, and Belt is only surviving due to his previous pedigree. Horwitz right now is basically a RHP platoon for when Belt or Vlad are injured or a late-inning pinch hitter for like Santiago Espinal who started against a lefty. Certainly promising that he's hit at every level at least, but he's never been young for the level and will likely need to find another gear beyond his current one offensively to have any sort of value for the MLB team.
  15. Orgfiller
    It's not always a one to one comparison like this though. Not everyone that isn't a keeper was signed through free agency or drafted by the FO. Gabriel Moreno was signed and developed by this regime, as was LGJ and that turned into Varsho who is a core piece moving forward. Guys from the previous regime like Drew Hutchison got turned into Francisco Liriano who turned into Teoscar, who was a part of the previous core and gave them good years before turning into Erik Swanson, good + controllable and part of the current "core" (if you can call any reliever part of a core). Matt Chapman has been a key piece of the roster for 2 seasons and was acquired for a number of guys (since turned into garbage) that were signed and developed by the FO. Zach Pop and Mitch White are young (ish) controllable pitchers who could still contribute, also acquired for prospects.
  16. Orgfiller
    Man, Giles has barely thrown any competitive pitches since 2019. Sure, the team should do their due diligence, but I wouldn't be too concerned if they choose to pass on him. He's almost certainly cooked.
  17. Orgfiller
    So everyone s*** on Ross Atkins all offseason for not getting enough swing and miss guys. The Jays pitching staff as a collective currently have the 7th highest K rate in the bigs, 10th highest from the starters and 7th highest in the bullpen who have an excellent 10.24 K/9. Is everyone still concerned about swing and miss in the bullpen, or has that narrative shifted to a different discussion?
  18. Orgfiller
    The Rays have the third best rotation in the MLB by WAR, best on a per-inning basis - lead the MLB in K/9, ERA, FIP and xFIP. They are not the same at all. Not to mention the Rays are absolutely pummeling the competition offensively, the gap between them and the next closest position player group is as big as second place and 24th place, which is absurd. Nobody is keeping them "in games", their rotation has an ERA over 5 which is 9th worst in the league if you want to go by "results". Kyle Gibson and Tyler Wells f***ing suck. Their only starter with any sort of upside is Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish has pitcherish traits but mostly has sucked and doesn't project that well at all. Eventually if your rotation blows the bullpen will start to feel it as well, as we very well know with the Blue Jays this season.
  19. Orgfiller
    Meh, I wouldn't quite call the Orioles good just yet. They have a solid lineup with young promising guys, an elite bullpen, but a terrible rotation. Seriously, the bullpen is out-WAR'ing the rotation by almost 2 full wins and it's not even mid-May. The Orioles are the Red Sox with slightly worse hitting and slightly better pitching only due to a better bullpen.
  20. Orgfiller
    Nicely done Yimi. Now Swanson and then Romano and close this out. A few runs of support wouldn’t hurt either.
  21. Orgfiller
    They’ve tried Schwarber at leadoff and Turner at leadoff but both have struggled which is why the lineup is the way it is. Not saying it’s right or anything.
  22. Orgfiller
    Perfect, got through the 6th and past Harper. That Turner hit was totally calculated.
  23. Orgfiller
    Ridiculous pitch there, 98 on the outside corner.
  24. Orgfiller
    I'll take one more run at the top of their lineup at this rate. Get us past Harper, ideally Castellanos and hand it over to the bullpen with the bases empty and let them close it out.
  25. Orgfiller
    Only concern for Gausman currently is the Phils have done a good job of fouling off pitches so the pitch count is pretty high already. Unlikely he gives us more than 6 today.
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