DuckDuckGose

Ya sorry I meant $20M AAV, the posting fee would be on top of that. Good point -- IMO the argument still stands though. If you're paying 4/5 $ you're looking at a JA Happ contract. He does have 2/3 upside but I don't see anyone else on the market that fills that criteria. So you're looking at trades with that mentality.

That asset doesn't exist through free agency, they come up once in a blue moon through trade or as a rehabilitation project but you have to give up value through trade and rehab prospects are way riskier (IMO $20M on Maeda is better than signing Cliff Lee at ~$13M and hoping you strike gold)

Iwakuma is one of the main reasons I'm so high on Maeda. Most scouts have Maeda ahead of Dice-K and Iwakuma (but behind Tanaka and Darvish). If you can get a pitcher like that on a decent deal without giving up any assets other than payroll I think you have to pursue the opportunity.

Price and Greinke are way more risk because of the years and the $. Both those deals could be franchise crippling if they go South before the 3yr mark.

IMO he has #1 upside but likely a 2/3 kind of guy. I'm not going to argue with people that feel he isn't that good. There's merit to that argument.

That's very fair and I think the ultimate factor. If you only value Maeda at $80M you will more than likely outbid. If you value him at $120M you're probably in the conversation.

I don't either though, that David Price contract is ugly. Very happy to see him walk on those terms. That's why I like the idea of Maeda so much, bigtime upside, no comp and relatively cheap (I'd guess less than Jordan Zimmermann including the posting fee). That's an asset that doesn't come around very often for a mid-payroll team like the Jays.

The Oil sands are heavily subsidized by the federal government. Oil needs to be trading above $100/barrel for the oil sands to be profitable and it will be trading at that mark in the near future ( at least if you believe the Saudi's). There is way more to the economy than just oil which will rebound eventually. Obviously depends on the circumstances. Rogers hedges for the upcoming year but I'm sure they have USD stashed somewhere for weak economic times like right now. There are no projections that have oil at $35 barrel long term. It's supposed to be back over $100 mid-2016. Resources; not oil. Natural gas, metals/pre/minerals, lumber, agriculture, etc. Oil being down hurts but it's not a long term thing. If revenue is down 15% you better find a way to make up that money. Like fielding a competitive team. No reason to just break even. The economy is good enough for the Jays to be profitable at over $160M USD. All I expect them to do is try. I'd never want them to make a bad deal but they should be actively pursuing Maeda. Happ and Maeda would be their only pitching commitment beyond 2017; that's the exact strategy you're calling for. You also don't improve w/o taking risks. Any FA signing is assuming risk, so set a number that makes sense and try and get him. Don't make a bad deal. It's zero risk to be in the bidding. I didn't sign any of those deals. The Marlins signed Buehrle and it may have been their best FA signing in franchise history. Backloaded the deal and shipped him for when he got expensive. Great move. The Greinke signing was also a great deal for the Dodgers. More than paid for itself. Who knows about Kershaw or Scherzer they just started their contracts.

Why would his BB/9 jump so much? That's not a trend we've seen with other NPB pitchers.

He's also said repeatedly that he's earned the right to FA, he wants to see what he's worth on the open market and already gave Toronto a discount. IMO he seems as good as gone given the current ownership and payroll.

If Maeda dips in to the EE and Jose funds then they would still be able to sign one of them. It's not like it's one or the other. Let's be real though if Jose and Edwin reach FA they're walking. Someone will pay more than the Jays like every other big name FA.

The JD and Tulo trades guaranteed he'd get another GM job regardless of the outcome in 2015.

I don't buy that rhetoric at all. A) Rogers hedged on the 2015 payroll before; the exchange rate shouldn't matter There is no real reason to assume the CAD will continue at a 10yr low C) They only saw increased revenues for 2 months which already covered the exchange rate disparity for this season. Adding another big time pitcher will lead to a full season of increased revenues which should more than pay for itself + hopefully a WS appearance and all the extra benefits for Rogers (content, marketing, PR, etc)

There's no risk but if you aren't going to sign him you are better off spending the time and effort elsewhere

Agreed, I have no idea what Shapiro is thinking in terms of payroll. Lets take a hypothetical look at the financial situation anyways. If the Dodgers are shelling out $100M that $100M jumps to $150M after tax; so on a 5yr commitment the AAV jumps from $20M to $30M. Let's say the Jays offered $22M yr on a 5yr deal; $130M total commitment. That's more money for Maeda and less of a total commitment for Toronto. If you can get a guy the LAD value at $30M per (and they have a smart FO) for $22M it has to be worth a good hard look. You had mentioned Chen who costs a draft pick. You'd think that they would rather have Maeda for a little more money and keep the pick. Especially considering how Shapiro has avoided FA's w/ comp attached and the amount he's talked about restocking the farm. Again, I'm not saying the Jays will get him but IMO he should be at the top of their FA list.

except the LAD are in the luxury tax, whatever they sign him for they'll end up paying 150% of that deal. I'd like to think that the Jays should be willing to spend more than the Dodgers considering they wont have to pay a luxury tax.

Heyward only had three serious bidders in the end; Cubs, Nats and Cardinals. I think the Nationals and Cardinals could target him but I'm guessing the Cubs are happy with their rotation.

I wouldn't worry about that, 28yo and in his prime. Should be well worth the $. If you mean resigning EE and Jose then I'd argue Maeda shouldn't have an impact. If he does they weren't signing with TO anyways.

Dickey + Revere would cover ~85%-95% of Maeda's contract. I'd rather keep Dickey so lets say they moved Revere + Smoak instead that's still ~55% of Maeda's AAV.

He has already said he's open to any city. He prefers the West Coast (way closer to Japan) but he's not limiting himself. EDIT: I wanted to add that Tanaka also preferred teh West Coast and he ended up in NY.

Normally a #2 pitcher w/o compensation would have at least half the league interested in them. Maeda will have 5 or so teams in on him and a few of them will not be contenders like the Jays. IMO of the true contenders the Jays, Giants and Dodgers will be interested. Obviously West Coast has an advantage w/ Japanese players but a little extra money can close the gap. LAD is in the luxury tax so the Jays should have an advantage there. The Giants will have a hard time making the playoffs so the Jays should have an advantage there.

I think you have a week from the official posting (so Friday the 18th) to match the posting fee ($20M in this case) and then a month from the posting date (so Jan 10th) to negotiate.

I wanted to discuss why Maeda should be the prime target for the Jays in 2015. My apologies if it's already been discussed (I didn't see a thread) in the offseason thread or elsewhere. Firstly, the posting process has changed and now there is a max posting fee of $20M. Maeda will have multiple teams in at the max but the Jays would get in to the bidding with zero risk ($20M is returned if he fails to sign with the team) and limited competition. Maeda projects to be a number two SP but will cost around the same as other #'s who have who have recently signed (J Zimm got 5yrs $110M and I think he's a good comparison) without requiring compensation and with less teams bidding. Talking about adding a 28yo #2 SP for ~$100M-$120M total investment. Seems like a perfect fit for the Jays IMO.

;);)

Only really need SP depth. They can get a very good young arm to stash in AAA for when injuries hit. I'd move Soler though, I'm not a big fan and you'll get a decent arm for him.