If you give up 2 homeruns and you only give up 2/3 earned runs total, that's being extremely fortunate unless you're not putting any runners on which wasn't the case. This is not a hypothetical regression. His recent starts have been bad but for some reason people seem to be blind to that.
Look at the ERA/FIP/XFIP numbers from his last couple of starts.
[TABLE=width: 482]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]ERA[/TD]
[TD]FIP[/TD]
[TD]xFIP[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2015-08-22[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]@LAA[/TD]
[TD]4.76[/TD]
[TD]6.30[/TD]
[TD]4.76[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2015-08-15[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]NYY[/TD]
[TD]3.00[/TD]
[TD]7.96[/TD]
[TD]6.99[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Now look at the same from Dickey:
[TABLE=width: 306]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]ERA[/TD]
[TD]FIP[/TD]
[TD]xFIP[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2015-08-23[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]@LAA[/TD]
[TD]7.50[/TD]
[TD]3.79[/TD]
[TD]6.43[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2015-08-18[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]@PHI[/TD]
[TD]11.25[/TD]
[TD]6.87[/TD]
[TD]5.79[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
By any metric other than ERA, Estrada's last couple of starts have been as bad as Dickey's but because of runs scored, everyone wants to burn Dickey at the stake while turning a blind eye to Estrada's struggles. Given Estrada's track record, given the way he's actually pitching, it makes absolutely no sense to give Estrada a pass here while also worrying about Dickey.