Terminator

I'm really glad we have Shapiro. He knows what he's doing.

I agree but Ortiz has the rings, played in a top market, the grandiose personality, more eye-popping counting stats (i.e. will have about 540 homers to Edgar's 309), may have less of a logjam to get through, etc.

Oh I know. It was pretty frustrating but it honestly wasn't a bad strategy to build a team like that if you are running s*** franchise like the Royals in a bad division. They had 5 decent starting pitchers (or at least 5 guys who put up decent years) and elite defense and bullpen. That in itself will put you in contention in the AL Central every year. Offense was merely ok but they don't strike out much and once in the playoffs all you need is 11 wins. Don't strike out for that small stretch of games and it's possible you can BABIP your way through the playoffs. They had so many damn ground ball singles against us it was ridiculous. They also stayed pretty healthy throughout the year. This year the starting pitching has regressed and the lack of elite hitters is rearing it's head. They only have one guy who is hitting significantly better than average (Hosmer) and the rest of them are hovering around average or well below. Yostball can't be helping as the worst hitting regular on the team and perhaps in baseball (Alcides Escobar) has the most AB's for them and is producing a wOBA of .263. lol It would be like Gibby batting Goins leadoff every game. Despite all this they are still getting pretty lucky as they are 3 games above .500 despite a -23 run differential. Pythagorean says they should be 5 games below.

Yeah I agree he does have a solid case but I also think he won't get in. He isn't eligible yet though as he played as recently as 2012.

I agree but it's just a hunch that I have. Ortiz is so well liked and he played in Boston where he won 3 WS and broke the curse. I just think he has all these outside factors that propel his fringe candidacy in despite the positive test.

Yeah for sure. If he's still kicking ass at an elite level from 31-34 which is entirely possible the Jays could get some decent surplus value in those year to offset the latter years which may not be an entire loss from age 35-38. But there is a very good chance that 39 and 40 will be lost years and it'd be tough to eat a massive deal like that.

Good question. The steroid s*** is so subjective but I don't think Manny gets in. Ortiz had a positive test but my guess is he gets in still.

Good BABIP beats everything.

Yeah the risk is you follow a Pujols aging curve and your production steeply declines at age 32-33. In Donaldson's case he'd only have about 5 years (as opposed to 10) to build his credentials before having to rely on just building up his counting stats like Pujols is currently doing. A guy who didn't really get started until he was 27 but I think will get in is Ortiz. He may or may not be worthy due to him being a DH during the steroid era but he wasn't really a great player until age 27 but then had 13 really good seasons. His personality and his team also play a factor in him getting in so he's not a perfect comparison to Donaldson at all but he did get a late start.

He's making up for that lost time by being one of the Top 5 players in baseball for 4 years in a row now and is as strong as ever. In other words he may or may not have the longevity that most HoFers have but he'll probably be able to match most of their peaks. If the Jays win the division he may repeat as MVP. He should be able to produce around this rate through this season and his age 31 and 32 seasons. At that point he'll probably have around 45-47 WAR. He definitely has a shot to get to 60+. I think it's doable for him to get to the HoF. Another interesting question is does he sign an extension here? I believe we have him through his age 32 season. We will see if Shatkins is going to want to spend 250-300 million on a 33 year old player.

Jays now the (weak) favorite to win the division according to fangraphs. This is the first time all season. http://www.fangraphs.com/coolgraphs.aspx?lg=AL&div=E&stat=div

Yeah Tellez is having a very nice year.

Yeah this season is becoming quite enjoyable after a pretty slow start. Should be a fun ride the rest of the way. Winning another AL East crown would be fantastic.

Lol probably true. Thames would probably be worth a bench spot though. Perhaps in the NL.

I'm hoping for Revere and Lowe type trades this deadline.

It's all good. I don't really care, I wasn't trying to put you on blast.

Yeah I mean we had a serious back and forth lol. I think I had another post after that and in between there were other people posting about it as well, half saying the O's were going to win and the other half saying they would fade. It was in one of the Rockies GDT. I don't really care and maybe he actually was trolling but it was funny to see the 180 in about a week so I brought it up.

It certainly didn't seem like trolling at the time. Here's the conversation:

I thought you said we all needed to realize that the "Orioles are having special season"?

Yeah you never know with s*** like that. I read it off one of the Jays reporters' twitter accounts. Can't even remember what one.

It's quite possible that after tonight we will become the favorites to win the AL East according to fangraphs.

I've read that he's not necessarily enamored with TO due to the treatment he's received by some fans. Sweetheart deal may not be possible.

Ha! There we go, people actually agreeing to qualify him after arguing with me that he shouldn't be extended for far less.

Qualify Dickey?

If you asked me to imagine what a guy named Brooks Pounders looked like it would have to be close to reality.