Well here's the thing, in a vacuum getting the lower pick and tanking for one season only isn't bad. But 50 pretty much means Stroman and Sanchez get hurt and everything goes wrong. When everything goes wrong it doesn't go back to being right next season. So I picked 50 but I only did so because this hypo is in a vacuum. If the question encompasses everything that comes along with winning 50 or winning 81 I'd take 81.