Terminator

Yeah I read that any team that signs him would basically have to stipulate on using him that way.

Yeah a lot can happen with relievers in 5 years. Astros really needed the bullpen help and they can afford it but this would make me nervous.

We need the Giants to sign Matt Chapman then we can trade Espinal and some change for JD Davis. His defense is wild because DRS hates him, UZR thinks he's average and OAA thinks he's really good. But his salary isn't going to be that bad (6.5 or 6.9 in arb) so he could play 3B, IKF can be UT and we'd still have enough money to sign one of the good DHs.

Yeah that all makes sense but I didn't post the projections. I was replying to the guy who was using the projections to say that he can't fathom how anyone would want to trade the 0.8 WAR projected guy for a 3+ WAR guy is the one who posted them.

It's possible but Berrios and Kikuchi seemed like different scenarios. Berrios wasn't THIS bad and Kikuchi was just wild and needed to correct that. Manoah lost velo, his stuff all flattened out and he was wild on top of it. They seem to be blaming a shoulder injury? Not sure if that makes it better or worse.

You are only taxed on the overages so if they are barely over the tax threshold it barely matters. 20, 30, and 50 percent taxes on being 5 mil over isn't that big of a deal. I agree that they are unlikely to ever eclipse the next threshold.

The bolded part is why. If Manoah is cooked like the projections suggest we'd all be laughing our asses off that the idiot Padres gave us a 3 WAR player.

Seems like he could throw that 4 seamer above the zone and get some whiffs that way.

Morosi was typing up garbage about how Manoah could be a fit for the Padres and we ran wild with it.

Jonn is right on this one and the Manoah fanboys are wrong.

Well Kim has been steadily improving as he adjusts to MLB and that lead to a 4.4 WAR age 27 season. Manoah did the opposite as ballooned to over 320 pounds and put up a negative WAR season. In theory, it's risky trading 4 years of Manoah but in reality the guy who was a frontline starter is probably gone. And I don't hate him like some, I think he can be serviceable moving forward but there is a chance that he's cooked. So there's risk to trading him and there is risk to not trading him while he still has value. Plus, one year of Kim is nothing to sneeze at on its own. But he seems like the kind of 2nd tier player that Atkins could lock up to a Berrios or Springer like contract and that would allow us some flexibility with Bo who we could deal or let walk in FA.

Glad to see the Rogers sisters getting the boot. With the boys fully in charge this can only mean good things for the baseball team. GO JAYS https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/rogers-scions-to-leave-board-in-settlement-of-family-squabble?leadSource=reddit_wall

Yeah and Francis and White will also play a factor.

https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/scott-mitchell-top-50-blue-jays-prospects-of-2024-1.2064424 Scott Mitchell has apparently been doing a Top 50 Jays prospects list since 2019. This year's version is out now.

You laugh but the Mariners are preparing an offer after reading the Heyman tweet

I don't follow other sports as closely as MLB but it seems like MLB reporters are the biggest group of useful idiots out of any league. Is that correct? This tweet has Duvall's agent all over it, clearly leaking this to Heyman to see if he can get another team involved in the bidding.

I'm not opposed to taking him. We could play him at 2B and move Schneider to a UT role or even DH. But he is a negative asset at this point since he is signed through his age 36 season so the Padres would have to add something. Or maybe we take Manoah off the table and just give them a bunch of slop for Kim and Cronenworth. Horwitz, Espinal, Garcia, etc.

I thought the fastball was rated really really bad. I haven't seen an exact number on it but Eno was alluding to it like it was graded anywhere from 65-75.

-Manoah, Yimi Garcia and Ernie Clement or Espinal for Kim and try like hell to extend him -Sign Ryu to a one year deal -Sign a cheap DH in February when the music stops The playoffs will be easy to make.

Yeah that makes sense. You've basically got to throw all of your pitches from the same delivery/slot/release point too so sometimes there is only so much you can do to change the shape of your pitches before you start tipping them.

Yeah that makes sense. Francisco Liriano was a good starting pitcher for about a decade by adopting a sinker as his main heater to go with his elite slider. He also had a change up to go along with a 4 seamer. Seems like Yariel's fastball may have some ride/cut potential so maybe he can throw it high to get some outs occasionally to go along with a sinker/slider.

Hmm...it's kind of a difficult exercise bc we are talking about on paper heading into the year. So using that I kind of see it as the following. Better Depth in 2024 -This year we've got one questionable guy penciled into the rotation (Manoah) and last year we had two (Berrios and Kooch). -Added Yariel Rodriguez. Atkins just bet 32 mil bucks that this guy will be good SP depth and given his record with FA pitchers I'm inclined to believe him. -Francis had a good year and is easily counted on as solid depth this year over last year. His 2022 was almost a complete bust outside of a good winter ball performance which is tough to count on. -Tiedemann was too far away last year. He didn't have a great year by any means, but he did progress closer to the bigs. He's better depth this year than last. -Chad Dallas had a good year. He's probably better depth this year than what Francis was entering '23. -Offseason isn't done yet so there could be further improvements. Same: -Is White seen as better depth entering 2023 or entering 2024? I'd say he's about the same. -Hutchison wasn't seen as anything. We'll sign some turds like him in February. -Are Macko and Van Eyk better AA depth guys than what we had last year? I don't really recall so I'll leave them in this category but it seems like they could be better. 2023 was better: -Thompson was seen as a possible decent #7-8 SP or so but never showed he could do that. I'll give you that one. -Zulueta was seen as a possible midseason guy and now is a reliever. I'll give you that one too. -I was banging on the Ryu midseason drum but few agreed with me. We can count him but he wasn't expected to do much. Seems like the depth heading into this year is far better, right? Now of course, we are going to see some negative regression with the staff IMO. BUT, I do think our depth is a better to help deal with that.

Yeah I've been reading this as well and also see the comparisons to Steele. If he can't get his fastball fixed, could he still be an elite reliever? Either a late inning guy or multi-inning guy? By just throwing his flat fastball harder (97+ mpg) to go with what looks like a very good slider? I think the good thing is that in the WBC (where his stat cast data is coming from) he probably wasn't working with MLB caliber pitching labs. So hopefully we can make some tweaks and see some improvement with the fastball.

I think you are both right to a degree. Last year the starting pitcher depth was so freaking bad. This year it's still not good, but it's miles better. If we get wrecked in ST we will be in some trouble. But let's say Manoah sucks again AND anyone other than Gausman gets hurt in June or later (when Yariel and Tiedemann are both potentially ready) and I think we should be okay. That's really about as good of depth as any team can hope for outside of the top few. A lot of teams, and even some playoff contenders, don't even have competent 4s and 5s. The bad teams sometimes don't even have 1 or 2 capable starters.

Kind of hard to remember it all but last year entering the season: -The rotation was a big concern. We didn't know that Manoah had eaten his way to Buffalo yet but even so there were major concerns about Berrios and especially Kikuchi. -There were also concerns about the starting pitching depth which was razor thin. -The bullpen was also a concern. Fresh off the heels of the Game 2 collapse, the Atkins haters were slamming him almost daily because he "can't build a bullpen." -The offense wasn't a concern. It was only when the offense was in that bizarre RISP drought that the haters switched from the bullpen (which had established itself as possible the best in baseball by that point) to throwing tantrums over the offense. A year later: -We are a pitching and defense team. -Elite bullpen. -Pitching depth is miles better (though still not great). -Now there are concerns about the offense which IMO are overestimated. We likely lose Matt Chapman so my guess is that on paper the team is slightly worse on paper entering this year. Last year's team had the chance to be pretty damn special if Vlad, Kirk, Varsho and Manoah all didn't s*** the bed to the degree they did because the rest of the offseason moves worked out well. But my guess is that we get positive regression (which will outweigh any possible negative regression from some) and end up with a similar or better record than last year's team anyway.