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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    I guess I am being facetious but how exactly do they come back? So they play in Buffalo the rest of this year, because of the vaccine passport issue. Trudeau from what I hear is going to call an election and win a landslide (maybe wrong on that). So next year he lets the unvaccinated baseball players in? I guess so if the situation is better. During the Blue Jays August and September ban I guarantee you thousands of unvaccinated truckers, farm hands, and electricians with venereal disease combined with COVID will all be wondering in... the border is not that closed, just "politically" closed.
  2. Olerud363
    Otherwise Blue jays and Raptors are done in Toronto. You will never have the entire league vaccinated and leaving players at home isn't an option. Is every single person, movie actor, business person, trucker, etc., etc. entering Canada right now vaccinated? Going forward do they all have to be vaccinated ? Won't happen. I'm vaccinated and encourage others to. Vaccine passports though, end a lot of things in Canada. If that's what Canadians want, have at it. Happy to live in America right now. Have seen 4 games already this year, great seats available in Buffalo, will enjoy that for the rest of the year, then I guess North Carolina gets the Blue Jays. Or I don't know... maybe Vaccine passports are only for a few months and they work it out next year....
  3. Olerud363
    https://kdvr.com/news/local/3-arrested-with-illegal-firearms-at-hotel-near-coors-field/ The video of the incident does not look like a hell hole. Nice people, nice reporters, sunny day, clean city, and an apparent drug related weapons bust. Police are saying it wasn't all star related. Probably drug related activity. Full story isn't out yet, but media will milk it to make it look like, wacko Trump supporters were looking to commit mass murder (even if it was retarded meth dealers, who didn't know there was an all star game, getting caught because of the enhanced security).
  4. Olerud363
    I think you need to ask whether we can match this years projected record for a number of years. Different players will perform under-perform every year. So no Semien next year? Will better years from Biggio and Gurriel + whatever we get for his 20 million salary perform?
  5. Olerud363
    Didn't it also cost 100 million in Tulo's contract? Which really hurt 17 and 18.
  6. Olerud363
    Gibby did the exact same thing with the talented 2015 team. If the Jays acquire the equivalent of Price, Tulo, Revere, a couple more relievers and got Pearson to play the Sanchez set up man role this team would also win low 90s...
  7. Olerud363
    What they think their IQ is Cousin Ralph - 80 Keith Law - 155 Guys who run Rays - 150
  8. Olerud363
    Keith Law doesn't have an IQ of 150, he's the classic midwit. IQ (approximate) Cousin Ralph who wins Fantasy pool somehow despite not finishing high school - 80ish Kieth Law - 100 Guys who run Rays - 150
  9. Olerud363
    The 75 IQ guys know that their cousin Eddie, played a hell of a short stop, and could wallop the ball, and would throw one away and hit a barn once a week, but that didn't matter too much since he could wallop the ball. The 75 IQ guys have folksy instinctive intelligence. The 100 IQ guys get too fancy and think of stupid trades. the 140+ IQ guys know analytics and scouting in detail (not just quotes from BA, or fangraphs summaries, but really know their stuff) and wouldn't trade Bo.
  10. Olerud363
    Update: As a test case they sent Mike Wilner to a game in Buffalo. FAQ on Mike's trip How was Mike Wilner allowed to cross the border? Surprisingly Mike is half American. Is Mike Wilner Vaccinated? Mike Wilner has been vaccinated several times. Did Mike Wilner survive? He posted on twitter 30 minutes ago, so presumably he survived so far. We will keep an eye on him though. Did he announce the game? No. They streamed Buck and Pat's feed from TV. As much as Mike annoys me sometimes I sure wish they let him announce. I never know what the f*** is going on listening to Pat and Buck without the picture. Did he think it was safe? Somewhat, I think. He got freaked out though when he saw Americans drinking out of the water fountain without a mask. So can we have games in Toronto now? No idea. They might wait a few weeks to see what happens to Wilner and then decide... Maybe next year if Mike has no long term effects from his trip to the game. Or who knows, maybe this year?
  11. Olerud363
    If she literally had her skull fractured then that is serious bodily harm and Bauer should be done. If she got her ass slapped and it turned red that is not. Did she have her skull fractured? I can't figure out if that's true or not.
  12. Olerud363
    Martin is a different cat though. His pedigree is way better than any of those guys. Basically a top 3 talent in his draft class who has struggled out of the gate and still has a .400 on base percentage. Martin is basically doing what Bichette did in the high minors, .275ish average, without mind blowing power, with a couple of differences Bichette - a bit younger, demolished low minors, Martin - no low minors data to speak of, but good college career, and was a top 3 talent in his draft class, has shown better walk rate than Bichette I suspect most people would of considered Bichette untachable so why not Martin?
  13. Olerud363
    Just out of curiosity I went back and checked Meija's projection for 2019, I could only find the ZIPS one... Francisco Mejia 519 .249 .296 .398 88 .149 .289 4.2 3 1.9 Not much different then what he has actually done over a season of at bats. So the projection system, at least not zips, didn't see any hidden signs of greatness there. By all means, I agree Meija was a good prospect and can be good going forward, however he also hasn't drastically underperformed minor league stats or projection system.
  14. Olerud363
    I wasn't dressing down Meija. He's a .290 hitter in the minors. I didn't call him a f***-ass-suck-failure... Just making the point that it is very common for a .290 minor league hitter to hit .230 in 450 major league at bats. His k/bb ratio isn't awful in the majors, it's translated in a way that is pretty typical. His isolated power is about the same in the majors as it was in the minors. Batting average isn't everything, but Jose Altuve hit .325 in the minors, and .280 his first couple season in the majors... 45 points lower Meija hitting .230 is nothing, for a .290 minor league hitter. His true talent level might be much better given a couple more seasons of plate appearances. Why even call him a failure yet, except maybe for defense (I know nothing about his defense)
  15. Olerud363
    He hit .243 as a 19 year old in low a, then got hot the next year and hit .340. Meija is a .290 career minor league hitter, who has hit .230 through 450 mlb at bats, that kind of stuff happens all the time. Any info out there on predictive power of most recent minor league season vs entire minor league career?
  16. Olerud363
    If he keeps it up he'll be kind of a Bo Bichette in reverse. Bo had an eye popping (.390) low A lansing season, then cooled off as he progressed. He hit maybe .280 in New Hampshire, .270ish in Buffalo, but he got on everyones radar because of the Lansing season... then there was no reason to take him off. Moreno was a little more ordinary at Lansing, but now explodes on the scene. Everyone acts surprised. Which way is better? Explode early? Explode late? Probably doesn't matter, you just have to take the average minor league performance if you are stat scouting, with a little more emphasis on recent performance.
  17. Olerud363
    As a 19 and 20 year old he had 30 double 5 triple 10 hr power over 135 games... not exactly noodle power, but kind of the power many 25 homer guys show when they are young. Kind of like Alex Rios -- who was terrible in the minors, but young for his level through age 20. Keep in mind with all these guys we are missing the 2020 season. If Taylor had a .275, 20 hr age 21 season we'd all think of this more as a surprising but not shocking progression.
  18. Olerud363
    2015 the key guys were Donaldson, Bautista, EE, Tulo, Martin, Pillar, Colabello... had to get down to Revere, Smoak, and Goins for lefties Really similar to now where basically Biggio, Tellez, Panic, and Reese are the lefties. In both cases the key guys all righty and a couple lefties in the secondary guys. Shows it doesn't matter too much... though scrappy Royals had lots of lefties and switch hitters (Moustakas, Hosmer, Zobrist, Morales). Well, next few years we might have more data on this a) get great right handed hitting team that can score 900 runs play playoff series scrappy 750 run team with lefties and switch hitters that steals signs c) collect data and come to conclusion about this pressing issue
  19. Olerud363
    Some people might not get in the hand because they have better protective reflexes. I remember when I first saw Jose Reyes in 2013 I couldn't believe how aggressive he was on the bases, and it seemed obvious to me he was an injury waiting to happen. Seemed obvious he had no protective reflexes and was happy to dive in like crazy... lol I'm probably full of it, and it's just that serious injuries happen on average 4 or 5 times in a long career so by random chance some guys get 10 and some 1....
  20. Olerud363
    I know we are not suppose to get political... but this is baseball related and hopefully as long as we don't call each other ass-morons, we can discuss the conditions under which the team can return to Toronto. Serious question, is it legal to void a contract or suspend without pay because of vaccination status? I can't see it is. How do you implement this rule? Will the owner of the Cubs or other team with unvaccinated players agree to such a rule, that can hurt their team, just to play in Toronto? Will the players union? What need do they have to play in Toronto? Maybe they couldn't care less and the best solution for them, is simply don't play in Toronto. We are the ones who will have to make a concession if we want baseball in Toronto, most players and owners don't care, only us. A reasonable concession will simply be negative test to enter, + reasonable restrictions while here for unvaccinated players. I don't see any other solution.
  21. Olerud363
    That is not going to happen though. They are not going to just drop Anthony Rizzo and Jayson Heyward because they won't get vaccinated. There will be no games in Toronto if a vaccination passport is required. There is a difficult conversation coming unfortunately... The choices are 1) Negative test required for the 10% of unvaccinated players to enter Canada. 2) or No games in Toronto
  22. Olerud363
    As a hitter his minor league stats are similar to Teoscar's or Tellez's. No idea how good he is as a defender. Biggio always had a freakish walk rate and good on base percentages in the minors. I don't think Smith has that kind of pitch recognition. For example in Biggio's "down" season in Dunnedin, he still had a .340 on base, in Smith's down season it was .260... big difference. You can expect some struggles in the majors offensively, maybe he'll put it together... maybe not.
  23. Olerud363
    I have to disagree with some of this a) To reliant on the homerun? Home run hitting teams do fine in the playoffs. The Blue Jays biggest moments in the playoffs have been home runs (Alomar, Sprague, Carter, Bautista, EE). You can't just hit homeruns and have Chatwood as your closer.. sure. However the problem isn't "too reliant on homeruns" it's that the bullpen sucks. No hole at 3rd base.. Biggio is fine, will probably end up with 2 WAR, could platoon with Espinal. Depth with Smith and Moreno now. Assuming Springer is back no hole in the outfield. Or Catcher assuming Kirk/Jansen come back.
  24. Olerud363
    Are all the NHL Players that came in to play Montreal vaccinated? I suspect if we want baseball in Toronto we will to compromise for the 10% or so that will be unvaccinated. Negative test to enter, and restrictions away from ballpark + daily testing while here. I can't see MLBPA forcing vaccinations, and teams won't come here if they can't bring all their players.
  25. Olerud363
    Not sure what the deal is there. Maybe it is just a cruel Tampa Bay thing. He is ready for the majors and can have a nice age 20-40 career. TBR wants age 22-28. I guess the problem I see is that if they go the entire year without calling him up, they then have to hold him out 3 weeks in 2022. Maybe they are also concerned about how a potential strike could effect service time. So what if next year is a disaster? 80 game season or wiped out? And then MLB players get a full year of service time for that crap.
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