Olerud363

You just have to laugh at this point. I wasn't even involved in the original genesis of this issue, but I heard that in 2021 Grant got in an argument about Seattle, and in 2021 he was 100% correct that Seattle was lucky, very lucky to win 90. Some ******* must have argued against Grant, in 2021, when Grant was 100% right, and then set in motion 10 years of Grant posting that Seattle in lucky no matter what. Then through 2022 the Seattle roster changed a lot so that by the end of 2022 they were no longer a bad team, however Grant couldn't deal with this and cherry picked the low batting average, and the low fWAR of Flexen and Gonzales (even though those 2 had already been replaced by high WAR rookies for important innings). The Boston thing is also mystifying. I've never actually even heard whether he's ever been to Boston and had a bad experience. I've travelled to Boston at least 50 times, for baseball games, business, the Boston Marathon and had a 100% positive experience every single time. I was even there during the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing (I finished the race about 90 minutes before it happened and was far away from the finish line), the way that was handled was amazing. Public transportation was shut down and they had to get 40,000 runners and spectators home. They managed to do it with a lot of patience and professionalism. Anyway what I am saying is Grant's description of Boston is completely opposite of what I've experienced, literally 50 times. Now I will say I've experienced the 'privileged' part of Boston (baseball games, biotech companies, the marathon), so maybe Grant stayed in a bad part, got attacked by the Irish mob and justifiably hates Boston... I don't know. Never heard the story behind his irrational Boston Hate.

Arizona could also be playing a couple of games drunk as f***, so the scenario where Jays lose a close f***ing intense hard fought game again Tampa while Houston and Seattle coast to 17-3 wins against drunk as f*** position players and the a 28th guy long man from the PCL just called up to fill some innings, while the rest of the team is drunk as f***, is a possibility. However (If I am right) the slightly good news is Houston has tie breaker over the Texas, and Florida has tie breaker over Arizona. This lowers the number of playing an already clinched and drunk as f*** opponent for Houston and Seattle over the weekend. So we need to hope Florida wins (a true 'lucky' team) and Arizona loses a bit this week to get Arizona playing with some passion and not drunk as f***.

I don't think that's quite the logic. Probabilities are based on each game being independent, but if each game probability is related slightly to surrounding games the probabilities will be off a bit. For example Jays have a 98% chance of making the playoff if each game is independent, but if several games are related because of injuries, bullpen use patterns (one team blows out their bullpen in a close loss affecting downstream games), psychological factors or the Texas Rangers clinching and playing as drunk as f***, then the 98% is too high, and it becomes really hard to model the true percentages. Maybe it is really 90% or something, given there could be correlation between the games.

The last 2 maybe last 3 games in Seattle probably won't mean anything to Texas. So assume Seattle wins last 3, Texas wins first. Houston wins 2/3 and wins out. Seattle 88, Houston 90, Texas 91. I think Texas does not have the tie breaker against Houston. In the scenario that Seattle wins 89 and sweeps Texas every game in the Texas series will be important Seattle 89, Houston 90, Texas 90 The above scenario is more unlikely though because Texas will have to play hard to the end.

You are truly an evil moron. Seattle was not one of the luckiest teams in history last year. What the hell is wrong with you? They had a 89 win run differential and were a slightly above average hitting team. They also replaced Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen, the two guys with low strike-out rates who hurt their team fWAR, with high fWAR pitchers. Why the hell do you need to bring this up out of the blue just to f***ing troll? 2014 Kansas City Royals, 1987 Twins, were lucky. The 2022 Seattle Mariners are an ordinary playoff team with an ordinary run differential, who played in a pitchers in a pitchers year.

That would change the entire narative of the franchise and the Shapiro/Atkins/Bo/Vlad era from "never won a playoff game" to "never won a playoff series" Can you really be that hard on them for never winning a playoff series? Probably not, if they at least win a playoff game.

World Series Championships (Offense) All types of teams have won, from the obviously cheating KC Royals (I also listed their 2014 stats when they were the closest World Series runner up in recent memory) to the historically powerful 2009 Yankees. Houston Astros 214 homers (2nd) 528 walks (3rd) .319 on base (4th) Atlanta Braves 239 homers (2nd) 549 walks (8th) .319 on base (6th) Los Angeles Dodgers 118 homers (1) 228 walks (5th) .338 on base (4th) Washington Nationals 231 homers (6) 584 walks (4th) .342 on base (1st) Boston Red Sox 208 homers (6) 569 walks (2) .339 on base (1) Houston Astros 238 homers (2) 509 walks (10) .346 on base (1) Chicago Cubs 199 homers (5) 656 walks (1) .343 on base (1) Kansas City Royals 139 homers (14) 383 walks (15) .322 on base (7) San Francisco Giants 132 homers (7) 427 walks (11) .311 on base (7) ** Kansas City Royals 95 homers (15) 380 walks (15) .314 on base (9) Boston Red Sox 178 homers (5) 581 walks (2) .349 on base (1) San Francisco Giants 103 homers (16) 483 walks (7) .327 on base (4) St. Louise Cardinals 162 homers (6) 542 walks (3) .341 on base (1) San Francisco Giants 162 homers (6) 487 walks (13) .321 on base (9) New York Yankees 244 homers (1) 663 walks (1) .362 on base (1) ** Got to bottom of the ninth of game 7 of the World Series, with the tying runner on third with a historically bad offense then ran out of steam...

It's a weird team though. It's not that they 'don't have power' like this combination of players is a 220 homerun team other years. They aren't hitting for power this year because... Bad hitting tips? Luck ? Psychological Issues? Like a 220 power 'true power' team. Also a philosophical question. For any 20 game run what is the best way to assess the true talent of the team? Maybe the 3 or 5 year average of each player centered on that date. We don't know the future performance obviously, but like this is why I think the 2021 team isn't as good as people think, because they showed in 2022, and 2023 some of the players weren't that good and it just a good 150 game stretch. Like some of the sub 90 win teams that won the World Series (2000 Yankees, 2021 Braves) were actually on a run of 95+ win seasons but having a bad year.

People have mentioned that Kendry Morales is comparable to 2023 Vlad. A couple of other guys that are comparable are the "older" versions of Miguel Cabrera and Pujols. All three consistently under-performed their xwOBAs. Sometimes by a lot. So I would want to fully understand this pattern before signing Vlad long term. Another weird thing is, despite his xwOBA being high, and ground ball rate not terrible, the number of fly balls he hits 380 feet or more, was almost half of that of 2021. Totally weird. I thought at one point he might just be losing a bit on his fly balls and a lot were caught deep. That's not the case. This year he is just hitting way less deep fly balls. I'll compare 2021, 22, and 2023 when the season ends to see what the final trend is.

Another thing fangraphs isn't factoring in is that no f***ing way Yankees have a losing season. So actually it's f***ing over. Yankees have a 30 year streak of winning seasons and no way the TV networks, the Mayor of NY, the fake President of the United States (Joe Biden), the real President of the United States (Donald J. Trump), the last remaining Kennedy and only hope for America (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.), the fake commissioner of baseball (Rob Manfred), the real commissoner of baseball (Bud Selig), Derek Jeter, the ghost of Mickie Mantle, Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Rudy Guliani, etc. etc. etc. will let the Yankees have a losing season. So they will win 2/3 and probably sweep Toronto. I estimate Toronto's playoff chances using real world risk analysis and the hard facts of life to be about 10% if that.

I think the soonest Texas can clinch is Thursday so at least they won't be drunk as f*** until then. When Texas get's drunk as f*** it's easy to see Seattle easily winning the last 3, 41-2 or something, then Texas winning 90, Houston winning 90, and Seattle 89. Then Toronto has to win 3 more. The Anaheim games are critical. Hard to see Toronto going 0-6, but easy to see 2-4. Only Anaheim can save us by keeping Texas from getting drunk as f*** before Saturday. Do we really think a Troutless, Ohtnailess, Souless mess of a franchise can beat Texas? No. So it's probably over honestly. Fangraphs says Jays have 98.5 % chance of playoffs, but they don't factor in Texas getting drunk as f***, and their models still give Anaheim a 35% chance of winning each game, when it is actually 1/10000.

There is no formal 20/40/60 scale, though that is what it often works out to be. Players and team submit an offer and an arbitrator decides. There is a minimum decrease which is where the 2 year contract also becomes important because Orioles can offer 3 million if they want. As far as I know the arguments are based on what the player has already done, and what similar players are getting in the same arb year, not 'expectations' for next year. So it would be a weird case based on what other injured players got in arb year 3, and there might not be much data. Not sure you can argue in arb that some team would pay Menas 15 million, so he gets 60% of that....

Why would he get a huge raise in arb either way? After his healthy season he asked for 3.1, the team countered with 2.7. After hardly pitching this year he won't be in line for an increase. Arb system rewards guys who are healthy and consistent with big raises. I don't think it does anything for injured or under-performing players, and they can even have their salary reduced (albeit only by a little bit).

He only got 2.8 million last year. He won't get more than 3.5 million after pitching like 20 innings this year. They are very serious about winning, so serious they aren't going to sign any conventional big time contracts and will continue to develop pitching internally (like I said their own pitching prospects are probably under-rated), make some hitting prospect for pitching prospect trades, sign some lottery tickets. Pay roll space will be used to keep young player long term.

They have so many prospects tearing up the minor leagues that it won't matter if a couple fizzle out. Someone (not me actually) was going on about Dylan Beavers the other day, dynamite hitter, tearing up AA and is like their 10th best prospect. Colby Mayo, guy that is like Orelvis Martinez, with a .290 average instead of .240 no one is even talking about. Samuel Basillo as an 18 (just turned 19) year old is ahead of where Vlad was at 18 and is their 5th best prospect supposedly. Their pitching prospects (McDermitt, Povich) are farther down the list... but have great k-rates, and who knows how to evaluate pitchers properly in the 'automated strike zone' minor leagues. Everyone knows Nathan Lukes and Clement and even Howritz (though he is a real prospect) have somewhat deceptive stats, so that means the pitching prospects also have deceptive stats. Anyway point is Orioles have so much depth, they can convert some of the position player depth to pitching, or perhaps the position players are actually over-rated, but the pitching prospects are under-rated.

It's hard to say. I've been one of the most critical posters, probably irrationally so, but I've never said the team doesn't have talent. Just that there is something wrong with their "high performance/advance scouting/coaching/analytics/nutrition" team as multiple players (Guerrero, Kirk, Varsho, Manoah, Chapman since May) have under-performed to a crazy extent. They also have a (low sample size) record of failing miserably in clutch series going back to 2020. The group hasn't won a playoff game. If they overcome this 'elephant on their back' if it is a real thing, no reason they don't have the talent to go on a deep run. Like if they made the playoffs, won the wild card round, I would say they overcame whatever weird x-factor was holding them back, then they'd have as good a chance of winning more series.

Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basillo the best of the Baltimore farm system haven't even shown up yet. All the secondary pieces (Cowser, Westburg, Kjerstad) have all just been called up, so in 4 years only Rutchman and Henderson will be close to free agency, all the others will be ARB1. Angelos is probably just bullshitting about not signing anyone. Admittedly the attendance is a bit disappointing for a 100 win team, but they are still way ahead of where the Rays are. Next year will be telling. Attendance should be up to 2.5 million next year, coming off of a 100 win season. They are going to win 100 games without using payroll on the Ryus, Springers, and Garcias of the world. Maybe they'll just keep a payroll of 60 forever... I doubt that though. Even if they don't go to a top 5 payroll, they have a huge amount of payroll space moving ahead, so hard to see them getting in to real trouble within 4 years.

There is no likely scenario where one of Texas or Seattle goes 6-1. This is because if one of them wins the first 4 they might clinch, then play scrubs. I sort of forgot about that. So Texas winning a bunch just means they are hungover as f*** the last 2 games and play their scrubs, while Jays have to play a Tampa Bay team fighting as hard as f***. Last night was a devestating blown save that just means the last 2 days of the season will be hell watching Texas laugh, giggle and dance, while losing on purpose (well, just not trying) as the Jays get eliminated. Congratulations to Julio Rodriquez, Teoscar Hernandez and the city of Seattle. Winning the last 2 games 28-3 and clinching a playoff spot. Admittedly Texas was a bit hungover but all the same a great year for Seattle.

Sunday, Oct 1st. Apr. 5:40 pm. Seattle announcer 1: And there's Teoscar Hernandez's 3rd homer of the game! What do you call that? A triple triple. Julio and Teoscar both with 3 homers. What a fun day. So much joy. Seattle announcer 2: Did the Texas pitcher just hurl? I believe he did. He's a position player anyway so must not be used to the mound. Come to think of it their starter puked too. Must be something going around their clubhouse. Seattle announcer 1: Well don't celebrate too soon. Toronto has to lose. What is happening in Toronto? Seattle announcer 2: Good things for us. Rays score 3 in the 8th to take the lead. Fighting as hard as they can with Junior Caminero doing some great stuff, and some crazy bullpen moves by Tampa that are all working out. Seattle announcer 1: So much Joy in baseball. So much Joy. I hope Junior Caminero is for them what Julio is for us. So much joy when a young player works out. Thank you for the help Junior and Tampa Bay.

lol. The f***-s*** scenario that will happen is in motion. No question this is what will happen. Mark my words. We f***ing forgot about it. WE f***ING FORGOT! It is good for us if Texas or Seattle wins 6 of 7. BUT THAT CAN'T HAPPEN. IT f***ING CAN'T HAPPEN. IF ONE OF THE TEAMS IS ON PACE TO WIN 6/7 THEY MIGHT CLINCH FRIDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT, AND NOW WITH HOUSTON STRUGGLING they MIGHT EVEN CLINCH THE DIVISION. f***ING ALL CAPS IS ANNOYING. BUT WE f***ING MISSED IT. Texas clinches after 1st of 4 against Seattle. Tampa Bay still in tight race with Baltimore. TEXAS GETS DRUNK AS f*** THURSDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT!!!!! DRUNK AS FUNKIKNG f***. REST EVERYBODY. DON'T CARE. HATE JAYS ANYWAY. f*** THE LAST 2 GAMES. Mean time Tamba Bay. Fighting against Baltimore. Pulling out every trick. 20 year old rookie doing fun things. Using every piece. Advance scouting like f***. Fighting as hard as they can to win the division. FINAL 4 SEATTLE/JAYS games TBR 3-1 over Jays, Seattle 12-0 over Texas (drunk as f***) TBR 6-5 over Jays with Romano blowing 3rd save of weak, Seattle 14-4 over Texas (still hungover) Seattle/Toronto Tie. Seattle has tie breaker Congratulations to the Seattle Mariners for a hard earned playoff berth, playing drunk as f*** Texas Rangers bench players the last 2 days.

Ratio of leader in saves to second in saves on team is like 24-10 for most of the good teams, and is 36-4 for Toronto. There are exceptions, like lights out guys like Devin Williams and Bautista. Can't imagine any of the good organizations making Jordan Romano a 35 save guy. The good organizations make these guys into 25 save guys, just to establish they can pull them when needed. Toronto is not a good organization. f*** you Shapiro! You slimy corporate piece of s***!

What was so special about 2021? What did that team have that this one doesn't? And why would that team be a good bet to good in the playoffs? Don't get me wrong. That team was playing really well, but that group of players isn't too different than 2022, or even 2023. Advance scouting was probably s*** in 2021, so in the face of playoff games with much better advance scouting why would that team be a bet to do anything? The team had a great run differential. But was it a great team? It was just the same team that happened to have a bunch of blow outs. 2021 2022 C Jansen/Kirk Jansen/Kirk 1b Vlad Vlad InfVet Semian Chapman InfDepth Biggio/Espinal Biggio/Espinal SS Bo/Bo DH Gurriel/Belt OutVet1 Springer/Springer OutVet2 Grichuk/Kiemaier OutPrime Teoscar/Varsho SP1 Ray/Gausman Sp2 Berrios/Berrios Sp3 Manoah/Bassit Sp4 Matz/Kikuchi Sp5 Ryu/Ryu "Lights out closer" Romano/Romano "Set up" Cimber/Hicks Bullpen is probably deeper this year. Difference between 2021/2023 isn't the "talent", it is that the talent from 2021 never developed any further and in some cases fell apart. Vlad/Bo/Kirk/Jansen/Manoah/Biggio/Espinal either went to hell, or stayed the same.

Now there are two game threads and I don't know which one to choose. I don't actually usually post during game threads much (and I am sure many are thankful of that). Well maybe I'll watch the second inning to catch the youngster Schneider and Horwitz... wait no... don't even have that option. Just Esponal and Merrifield hitting some 88 mphers right at someone.

lol. There is also no game thread. This board has been around 10 years I believe (10 year anniversary of leaving the old MLB forum). How often is there no game thread? And I am willing to bet that this has never happened in a contending game. No one has confidence in the team, and are just assuming a Rays sweep and other disasters this week. Though if they win tonight everyone will get excited for tomorrow.

Horwitz is like a .300 .410 .450 minor league hitter, and Espinal .280 .340 .390. Since Horwitz doesn't have a lot of MLB data that is the fairest way to compare them. Lifetime MILB stats. The Steamer system also thinks Horwitz is better that is another fair way to compare them.