Olerud363

First 4 years with Jays he is the same age as Joe Carter first 4 years with Jays. Springer has more WAR despite missing more games (though Carter missed 50 games because of strike).

They won't get a deal done this off season. Vlad's agent and support team will probably sit down with him and figure out how to maximize his fWAR score. Less boneheaded s*** on the bases, maybe play third more, keep in shape the whole season, don't swing at s*** pitches ... Vlad is better with 190 hits and 100 walks than 200 hits and 70 walks... maybe better with 40 homers and 120 ks, than 30 homers and 90 ks, better just playing it safe on the bases then racking up another negative disaster on the bases... They'll figure it out so the 'Vlad' vs 'Soto' comparison done with recency bias looks better.... part of that will be maturing just a bit and being in his prime year.

Smart - make team that can win 100 (skip 1st round most years and have bigger advantage in 2nd) Smart - average 90 wins for a 7 year stretch. Lot's of shots at the random lottery Dumb - reconfigure team to win same number but in different manner that is a winning "playoff team" recipe.

Orioles are basically where the 2022 Blue Jays were. It will be interesting to see where they go. 2022 Jays did all the things the Orioles fans are demanding kind of reshaping the team into a more clutch, defense first, playoff worthy team and it did not work. Best move for Orioles may be to just do nothing. Trust their player development system, stay with what got them 101 and 91 wins. Don't panic over Adley. Don't panic over Holliday. Tell the f***ing Oriole-haters and the morons on Orioles-Nation to f*** themselves. Can Basallo catch? Saw on Twitter the Orioles morons want this dude catching next year. Thought he was a Delgado... will not be catching.

Interesting... The configuration of team that hits .245 with 261 homers and 768 runs is the result of optimization under some conditions which have been around for a few years. If the pitching gets so good that the 35% k-rate guys no longer function (they break like Gallo) then maybe the .255 hitting team with 165 homers and 700 runs comes back. Some evidence (low sample size) of this trend in Blue Jays land Loperfido, Barger, Schneider - in very sad .190 250 .340 with 300 ks or something per 700 PAs state Clemente, Howritz, Wagner - in better .260 .340 .400 or something state

The comparison with Devers is good on average, but hard to know how much value teams would put on Vlad's 5 month runs of first ballot hall of famer performance, going back to the minors. Devers was a .280 hitter with 11 homers at 18 and 19. Vlad was a .350 hitter with much more power. Devers was a good prospect, Vlad the greatest hitting prospect ever (80 hit tool). Devers prettiest season (2019) was only a 132 wRC+. His best season 140, while Vlad has two 165s with some insane 10 week stretches inside of those (to be fair maybe Devers also had some insane stretches... don't know for sure). Vlad is unique. How much will they pay for Albert Pujols ceiling which has been in action sometimes? (a good stats guy might refute this narrative and just show Vlad's numbers are just normal variation for 140wRc+ talent, but maybe some high bidding team doesn't have good stats guy).

If this is true why don't they have a contract? Pretty simple. It is just WAR. Take a look at the fangraphs page, calculate the number, sign the contract. Give him the Devers contract. He should sign it. Unless his camp thinks it's not just WAR, or they are betting that Vlad is better than his fWAR, and the market (which by market we mean 2 or 3 teams bidding on him) will think he is better than fWAR. Note: I'm not personally arguing Vlad is better than his fWAR. I might be in the camp that thinks Vlad is as good as his fWAR. It doesn't matter what I think, or what 25 teams in the industry think, it matters what what about 3-5 teams think.

Vlad has a 137 wRC+ and Devers 125. Vlad's ceiling is way higher. He has already been top 5 in mlb history at age 18, 19, 22, and for age 25.3-25.8 (forget April this year). He walks 10% and strikes out 15%. Devers is 8 and 21. They are the same athletically in terms of baserunning and defense, but Devers scored better because of quirks in the system and a bit of focus issues which can be fixed. Vlad can play third. He hit .370 .450 .670 in the second half with more walks than strike-outs, that is really his talent level. It really is. He did all this with a sub-optimal launch angle, which Dodgers, and a couple of organizations know how to fix. Only Ted Williams, 26 year old Don Mattingly and Roy Hobbs had this level of hand eye coordination with 70 grade power.... and Vlad's power is 80 grade. First guy on scouting scale to get 80 grade hit tool and 80 grade power. You think I am joking but I am not. This is a 99.999th percentile talent who has frustrated us by playing like Josh Bell for months and months, but also rediscovering his 99.999th level talent for a few months too.

My post pointed out that Soto has twice as much WAR. They are not comparable in value. Last 2 years Soto was out fWARed Vlad 14-7 or so. Go back to Vlad's big season and it's still 24-16, go back to when Vlad entered the league and it's 33-17 or so. My post was about what their perceived value is and will be. In Arb the money value difference is 15% with real value difference 50%. Even when playing good Vlad is over-rated. So how will it play out in a irrational market? Especially if he has a big 2025 with flashy triple crown numbers.

They are both .285 30 100 guys per 162. Soto gets 140 walks, Vlad 70. Soto has better defense and baserunning. It is that weird thing where it is the difference between 'below average' and 'insane bad', so some might not think of it, but it adds up to a couple WAR a year. How will those advantages translate into perceived long term value? In terms of arb Soto is 15% more while 50% more in terms of fWAR value. Arb is stupid, but all it takes in free agency is a stupid owner, or a smart management group who thinks they are smart enough to increase Vlad's launch angle by 3%, throttle him on the bases, and improve his footwork at third.

I'll say 14 years 600 million. Sounds ridiculous and depends on next years numbers too but I think his agents will make a bunch of arguments (I'm not saying I think these arguments are true, I am saying his agents will likely create a report claiming a lot of this). 1. Ceiling is as high as Judge and Soto and has reached that ceiling for 4 to 5 month periods. 2. Numbers have been unlucky, expected numbers are higher. 3. Defense is not rated properly by some of the stats (gold glove at first, potential to play third, 95th percentile arm strength). 4. More hard hit balls in play than any other player in baseball over 5 years (probably a couple of hundred more). 5. 80 grade hit tool, strikes out half as much as Judge 6. 80 grade power. High end exit velocity and homerun distance in top 3 in baseball. 7. Most comparable players are Manny Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera is right there through age 25 with them, when adjusting numbers for league wide offense levels. Both Cabrera and Ramirez took it to the next level after age 25. Guerrero will too. 8. Plays every game, never injured 9. Pudgy as a 4 year old Montreal Expos bat boy, and in his early 20s, but 235 pound lightning cat now!

Starting Rotation on the surface did OK. But mainly league average at run prevention. Like 3.80 ERA is average of Rotation. Healthy mostly and non-disastrous with Francis appearing to be (for 2 months) the next Greg Maddux... maybe he will watch the Greg Maddux documentary over the winter, and say 'yeah, yeah, OK. I was Greg Maddux for 2 months, now I'll do it for 10 years so I get documentary.

Disaster of a season in almost all respects. Cavan Biggio - released (happy moment for some) Orelvis Martinez - suspended for using women's fertility treatment Ricky T. - Tommy John Bo Bichette - .220 with 4 homers misses 80 games Varsho - .220 again! (but good defense) Kirk - takes noodle bat to next noodle level (but good defense) Springer - takes aging to next level Manoah - Tommy John Romano - Lost season but no surgeries (or did he get some minor surgery?) Loperfido/Barger/Schnedier - .190 hitters on pace for 250 ks if they played full time What is the answer ? Only players who played good were Guerrero (80 hit tool legend looking for 40 million in Arb, 700 14 years for long term), Spencer, Clemente, Wagner/Lukes (low sample size).

The Orioles made up like a 800 thousand fans on the Jays this year. 2023 about 3 million Jays to 1.9 million Orioles 2024 it will be about 2.7 million Jays, 2.3 million Orioles 2025 it could be 2.8 million Orioles low 2s for Jays. We all know Baltimore, projected to be a forever dynasty with 110 wins a year is now a great-great disapoiontment. An 89 win loser team that will be getting swept by KC or Detroit and going home... However what it Orioles somehow luck out and beat KC or Detroit and win a playoff series or 2? What if they make a big signing in the off season? The forever dynasty Orioles team depends on them getting some momentum here, starting to outdraw Jays, and win free agents from them... only KC or Detroit can stop this. They must

Boston is almost impossible... Seattle? Holy s***. They are like right there. This is hilarious. Grant will go nuts. Despite hitting .224 they have scored as many runs as Toronto and are a better hitting team when adjusted for park... actually probably an above average hitting team Seattle in the year 2024 must be one of the all time worse places for a hitter....

Moreno unfortunately got a hand injury in early 2021 and hasn't been the same since, as may have Kirk in June 2022... and apparently Rutchmann too. Kirk and Rutschman never even went on the DL but their numbers have tanked since. Are hand injuries career altering? Do MLB front offices have info on this kind of thing that isn't quite public yet? Could explain a lot.

Kirk's defense is getting crazy good ratings on fangraphs. He is weirdly similar to Russell Martin first few years. Russell decided to become a 20 homerun hitter after reaching rock bottom with the slap hitting.... 105 wRC+ is fine for a hall of fame catcher having a down season (not saying Rutschman is a hall of famer, just that his first three seasons would be normal variation for a 3 year sample of a hall of famer... he may not do this for 10 more years though).

Their season just has a very Jays 2022/2023 vibe to it is all.

Adley also isn't struggling. He's having a 3 WAR season just like Joe Mauer did in 2007. Another illusion created by the .240 league batting average.

Really? Never been an Oriole fan, and of course this year could just be their '2016 Astros' year... and hell they could still go on a deep playoff run. But right now they don't look so hot and unlike some posters at least I acknowledge when a prediction isn't (so far) going my way...

The playoffs are a total crapshoot, however emotionally it doesn't seem like that. It seems a team like the Orioles who are limping into the playoffs will just get swept as the 2022/23 Blue Jays did. It also seems that maybe there is some curse and only Red Sox and Yankees are allowed playoff wins, and Tampa Bay sometime... but Toronto and Baltimore must suffer forever. However 1. Using logic and data probably can prove playoffs are a total crapshoot with perhaps 3 year mean winning percentage having some small effect. 2. Using anecdotes can show that every type of team conceivable has won World Series, including some awful team that limped into playoffs. 3. Using emotion and flawed human intuition it seems that only certain teams can win in the Playoffs... like the Arizona Diamondbacks with that up and comer next Johny Bench guy.

Baltimore fans enjoy the ride. An experience like this only comes to a fan once and a while. The opportunity for your disappointing team to back into the playoffs and lose 2 straight. We've been there and it was quite the experience. Here are some tips. Right now you have a 99% chance to make the playoffs. However problem is you play the Twins the last 3... so if they are still in it by the weekend it could be hella-stressful, but don't sweat. You probably only need to win one against the Marlins... and you will win one against the Marlins... right? Of course you will... maybe... Even if you win one against the Marlins and make the playoffs all you have to look forward to is a 2-0, and 2-1 loss to the Tigers pitching staff, or a 7-5 and 9-8 loss to KC with miracle comebacks by KC. Enjoy the ride though. I certainly did in 2022 and 2023. Then you have all Winter to discuss how far down Jackson Holliday needs to be sent to fix his swing.

The Baltimore Orioles: The greatest franchise ever, run by the all time greatest GM ever... but... Somehow they are having a 2022/23 Blue Jays style season? Massive dissapointment (Holliday) from a player who suppose to be an all time great... even worse than Fat Vlad every was. And Grayson Rodriquez is broken or something? I guess at this point we expect they lose all week and don't make the playoffs or get swept in 2 by Detroit Tigers or something. Or maybe by KC if they re-instate their sign stealing inntiatives. I guess the good news is, for Baltimore fans (none of which are here) is that they have incredible payroll space and some hedge fund guy or something as owner now so maybe they get Soto. Would make sense.

Manny and Miguel took it to the next level age 26-33 or so... so career wise Vlad has work to do to keep up, but through 25 is there. His agents should argue he is the greatest ever but with bad batted ball luck so far, then make an overfit model to Manny and Miguel to project Vlad's 2026-2035. Also normalize stats to a .255 .325 .425 league but don't tell them you did that... and show the model... and get Vlad a 11 year 550 million contract.

Despite being on the verge of being down to Indy Ball several times Vlad is right with Manny, Miguel Cabrera and his Dad in terms of wRC+ through age 25... The .240 league batting average nonsense hides it. Pretty much the same as Miguel Cabrera, same vibe, same kind of seasons, but knocked down a bit by the league he plays in. wRC+ through age 25 both 137. Take the Miguel contract and Prince contract and multiply by the burger inflation rate and that should be fair.