Olerud363

I recall someone doing a analysis on Kendry Morales who also under-performed his xwOBA consistently and said Vlad has similarities. No one is wanting to release him if he has 3.5 WAR. However he is on track for another 1ish WAR season. The release scenario is like a .250 22 hr 90 rbi 1 WAR season and 25 million dollar arbitration win

Kendry Morales underrated? You betcha. Many people associate Kendry with the lost seasons and letdown following 2016. He replaced Edwin Encanarcion after all... but did you know 1. Kendry hit the ball harder than any Blue Jays in his time with the Jays 2. Kendry had a .380 batting average and .690 slugging on middle middle fastballs under 95 mph 3. Kendry had an above average chase rate. 4. Kendry exit velocity was not only good on grounders but good on fly balls and line drives too. 5. Kendry and Justin Smoak were the greatest switch hitting 1b/dh Power duo the Jays have ever had.

I have been a fan for a long time. There were many days when I thought 100% Guerrero would be Frank Thomas/Pujols level for a decade 1. Montreal late March 2018 that walk off may still be the greatest moment of his career. 2. April 2018 in Hartford there were already like 100 autograph hounds after him. He was an unbelievable presence. Impressive at the plate 3. Boston June 2021. I was at Fenway. He led the AL in all 3 classical stats, and all 3 advanced stats. He hit like a 450 homerun like every game of that series. 4. The all star homer in Coors where Fernando Tatis Jr. said holy f*** as he was being interviewde 5. Rogers Center April 2022 against Oakland. To start 2022 he hit a 460 foot bomb against Texas, a 3 homer game against Garret Cole, and then an opposite field 420 shot against Oakland a couple of days later, in that moment it looked like Vlad, not Aaron Judge would be challenging 60 in 2022.... And that was it. Hasn't been a legend since. I bet like half his 2022 WAR was in the first 10 games. For better or worse I compare him to those 5 moments... and have sort of given up on him getting back there with the Jays.

No. Tigers must be good. They came last every year.... according to the geniuses on this board that makes you good... Tigers have had just as good a draft position as Orioles last 7 years... better in fact given they are still drafting in the top 10.

I went to Hartford a while ago and lots of people there want to kill Genocide Joe (true story the pro-palestine groups were marching near the stadium). NOT POLITICAL getting to the baseball part... Basallo looked surprisingly wimpy and is sucking. Thought he was the next legend. Maybe Basallo and Holliday are going to bust. lol. There are like 10 guys ready to jump in to become replacement superstars if that is the case. Like the Beaver guy. Bowie has some damn beaver guy and they kept playing 'two beavers are better than one' and the beaver guy hits.

As much as I think the Orioles are geniuses, this one seems just random. His numbers with the Os are like .285 .320 .490 and his numbers with Kansas City were like .220 .290 .390 or something Like maybe he is true talent .250 .300 .440 and the variation is just luck. His aaa numbers were up and down, bad in 2018, good in some short spurts after that.,.. k/bb seems bad always... Nothing really in the old school stats and k/bb that indicates he really improved though maybe the batted ball data says otherwise. There is like 5 guys in Norfolk ready to take his job I think

People are so f***ing in denial about the reality of the Orioles. If Orioles and Jays had equal development systems, and Jays players followed standard minor league projections and aging curves the Jays would still be ahead of the Orioles. The Jays peak window is 2022-2026, while the Orioles were about 2 years behind so there peak is 2024-2028. So what we should be seeing now is Vlad/Bo/Kirk/Manoah at their 25-27 peak performance level of 20 WAR combined and this should have been sort of the first year where the Orioles put a scare into the Jays, and the next two the teams would be even. Instead the Bo/Vlad years are kindof already over and the Orioles look to be set up for a 2022-2031 10 year run. People are in such denial about this.

A lot of the Orioles stuff, especially mine is a bit over the top, some of it tongue in cheek but it's all grounded in truth. This board has a bizarre need to discount everything the Orioles do. Both Vlad and Manoah had one great year. No one is denying that. Development doesn't end with a players first dynamite great year in their early 20s. If multiple players (Vlad, Manoah, Kirk) crash and burn from age 22 to 25 it is not a good thing and does not reflect kindly on a teams development systems. 80% of the people on this board are morons. If Gunnar Henderson turns into a 1 WAR pumpkin in 2 years, and Adley Rutchman gains 100 pounds and becomes a .230 .290 .300 hitting catcher, and Rodriquez crashes and is in Norfolk in 2026 I will gladly admit the Orioles development system wasn't what I thought it was.

Unlikely that he will keep this up without improving advanced stats but if he did I have 0 doubt that he will be Cy Young if he leads by an obvious amount in old mans stats. Like Manoah 2022 was third but the two guys in front him had better old man stats, he beat guys who beat him in advanced stats. Formula is: IF Berrios leads by 5% or more in old man stats, Berrios wins Cy Young no matter what. Berrios 22-3 1.98 188 ks 3.8 WARs Grayson Rodriquez 17-10 2.54 287 Ks 6.5 WARs Berrios wins Berrios 19-7 2.49 188 ks 3.8 WARs Grayson Rodriquez 17-10 2.54 287 Ks 6.5 WARs Rodriquez wins because even though Berrios won the old man stats he just didn't do it by enough to sway the voters.

They really only had 1 extra meaningful 'bad' season than the Jays. And that was 2021 when the Jays only had 25 home games and there was limited attendance anyway. Finishing last has little to do with it. So give them a good 2021 and take away Jackson Holliday and everything is still exactly the same. They are a seriously great organization and have hit potential superstars on a phenomenal number of top 60 draft picks. Take a look at their good players. Right now, other than Adley Rutschman there is nothing the Jays couldn't have had too with better drafting and development 1. Jordan Westburg 30th pick, great development 2. Gunnar Henderson second round pick I think 3. Adley Rutschmann 1/1 that they hit on 4. Grayson Rodriquez 11 pick, same as Manoah, just better development so far. 5. Colton Cowser 5th pick, which Jays had one too. Oriole geniuses got a generational hitter, Jays geniuses got Austin Martin 6. Corbin Burnes - obtained for like prospects in their second tier group 7th to 15th best prospects or something. Had nothing to do with finishing last, just their phenomenal second tier prospect pool. 7. Ryan Mountcastle - has matured as a better player than Vlad simply by following a normal age 22 to 27 development path. That is actually getting a bit better every year as players should. 8. Cedric Mullins - nice development story too 9. Craig Kimrel - smart signing with money they saved from not having to waste money on Isiah Kiner-Felafa because they have 22 50 grade infield prospects.

It is time. Commissioner needs to intervene for the good of the game and force Toronto to trade Vlad + 20 million dollars to the Giants for a prospect (not in the Giants top 30). Alternatively they can send him to the Red Sox for their top 20 prospect and only 10 million. Toronto can get more from the Red Sox but will have to put up with him in the division, or less from the Giants. For the good of the game get Vlad out of Toronto and somewhere that can help him.

I'm no super scout but he just he had a 91 mph fastball right down the middle and missed it. This is just getting hard to watch. I think he missed a bunch of 90 mph cookies yesterday too.

You are a brain dead moron who probably can't read more than a couple of sentences. Have you read any of Laika's posts lately? He's the smartest guy here and he's acknowledged that the Orioles have created an unstoppable forever team with multiple hall of famers... And what the hell is wrong with the morons on this board thinking that stating the Orioles are good means liking them?? Olerud363 (looks at Orioles stats) - holy s*** the Orioles 8th hitter has a 1.000 OPS and like 5 guys in Norfolk hava a 1.200 OPS. That just means I'm reporting reality, not that I like the Orioles. Believe it or not I hate them, for very personal reasons. The worst human being I know loves the Orioles, and another very annoying human being I know loves them too. These guys have realized they have a forever team of Joy with multiple hall of famers and generational history making players. It is annoying as hell to me... I do not like the Orioles, just acknowledging what is happening here as I have since late 2021 when it became apparent the Orioles would be a super-team. Just kind of a sad time, when our one chance at a generational player (Vlad) has failed (no turning back now) and the Orioles are creating like an entire team of generational players. Probably in 10 years the top 9 position players from this Orioles team will be better than the greatest Blue Jay ever (which will still be Jose Bautista). The Orioles have a 10 year run of 100 wins a year, likely 3 year over 110, likely the all time wins record, likely 3 or 4 World Championships, likely a year with 10 all stars (they will have to change the rules to allow other teams to have enough) and so much more. Jays fans have the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. release ceremony, 76 wins a year and a Spencer Horwitz 3 WAR, .298 11 homer season (with good 1b defense) to look forward to.

What is mind blowing is that at age 23 Orelvis may very likely hit about the same as Vlad at 23 and 24. Similar Offensively (.260 hitter with 30 homer power) Orelvis more D Mind blowing considering there was a 200 point difference (.400 to .200) in their double a batting averages.

I don't think Norfolk is really the reason these guys aren't being talked about as much as some of the Norfolk crew. More that the Orioles prospects all have had a linear journey to their glorious destination... high draft picks, some 1/1s, proceed through system never smelling failure. Glory to Mike Elias. Glory to the forever dynasty. Glory to 1000 wins over the next 10 years. Jays prospects are like all some unknown 21 year old in Vancouver, or the .200 hitting pop-up king, or the injured Barger, or the powerless Horwitz that out of nowhere start raking in Buffalo. I think if you looked at Jays prospects vs. Orioles as they look over the last 7 months it is a lot closer than the prospect lists may make it seem... but Jays prospects have warts and that may or may not be important. Seems to me the players with warts may have good seasons sometimes but go back and forth, like Alex Rios... had some warts (early minor league numbers powerless and bad), had some good season, but then the warts showed up again with stinker seasons mixed with good... kind of the same with Vernon Wells. Orioles prospects will have forever glory without fail, the only small bit of failure will be Jackson Hollidays first 30 at bats, but their fans will never have any taste of failure again until maybe 2045... or maybe they will make so much money with this dynasty that it will lead to forever dynasties. Orioles will have 15 position players better than the Jays 'greatest 80 tool hitter ever' VGJ... it will be routine for Orioles to hit .1000 OPS. Like their 8th hitter will (and is already). The only risk to Oriole fans endorphin levels will be they have so much success that the endorphin buzz numbs, and 1.000 OPS from 8th hitter will not be enough, they will need 70 homeruns from someone, 30 wins. Undefeated post-season. Jays will have no joy. Vladimir Guerrero release day will be sad, his rejuvination with another team sadder. But then maybe next year, Spencer Horwitz hits .299 with 11 homeruns and good 1b defense and 3 WAR and that brings us Joy... just a little bit of Joy in the upcoming string of 76 win seasons.

One way to look at it is that at age 18, 19, and 22 he was among the 10 greatest hitters of all time at that age now at 25 he is below average and getting worse each year. I doubt we will ever see a Blue Jays player perform like Vlad did through age 22. He was a once in a life time generational talent that has become a replacement player and seemingly hasn't been able to fix it for 2 years. We have lost the one chance this franchise had at a Frank Thomas/Albert Pujols level talent and will likely never see it again. I'd compare him to John Olerud, but Olerud wasn't ever bad at all just vastly under-appreciated. Roughly speaking there are parallels, early good but not great seasons, one big amazing year, unable to repeat. Olerud got out of it by being sat for Jacob Brumfield then essentially released (traded for very little), then 'fixed' by the Mets. The same will likely happen to Vlad this winter. The ultimate kick in the nuts will be when the new team fixes him. Vladimir Guerrero has failed for us. It is over. Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves or who-ever manages to fix him. Vladdy will still only be 26 and bring generational joy and happiness to your fanbase.

Game was lost when they sent Pearson down so not really Schneiders fault... can't really say I'd rather of had Francis facing Judge.

People younger than 40 (Wow!) have no idea what Gillick left Ash. I believe Delgado, Green and Alex Gonzales were all top 10 BA prospects. Olerud and Alomar were 25 and all stars. Pat Hentgen and Juan Guzman had both would get Cy Young votes. What happened between 95 and 2001 was the single greatest series of baseball screw ups in major league history. Ash was a fool who was like the accountant or something, got put in as GM, and did not have the personality for it. Cito Gaston was a maniac who held grudges. Sorry to rant about this (again) but you just can't explain how much talent Gillick left and how badly it was screwed up in every possible way. It was simply lack of understanding of 1980s baseball math (on base percentage good) and lack of understanding of the simplest concepts of keep pitchers healthy. The bizarre thing was like between 89 and 93 Cito was fine with that stuff. Pulled pitchers early, developed good hitters. Maybe it was just Gillick behind the scenes and Cito left to his own devices was a nut. lol. I am sure most people are sick of me going on about 90 Jays. Play Olerud 100 games and Brumfield 50. Let Guzman and Hentgen pitch until their arms fall off (they did).

This s*** could build up... The Berrios pulled after two, sitting guys like Schneider and Varsho after game winning homers... Sending Pearson down... I don't know. Isn't there like a human that can override the computer soemtimes with a combination of common sense and human emotion. Not all the time, but just sometimes.

Don Mattingly is not the guy to teach him this, but as you've pointed out repeatedly he'd be better off taking a strike (even a 3rd strike) on every pitch that he can't put in the air.

I think the established projection systems show Spencer hitting .250 .340 .380 or so... so maybe he does suck. However I think there is a question of how much 'recency bias' should be put into these. Like if he hits .380 .500 .500 in Buffalo for another month, then you plug it back into the projection system the projection probably varies a lot depending on the weights you put on the last 8 months. I think his projection could go way up depending how the formulat works (for example if his 2024 first 6 weeks starts getting weighted way higher than the 2022 last 6 weeks) I predict Spencer will hit .290 .370 .440 in the majors with only sort of bad defense and would out-WAR vlad (because of Vlad -20 defense)

Everything is weird these days, however if in 1 month, Clement and Schneider are still performing what do you do with that information? In a logical world 1. The great minds on this board and the great minds that lead the Blue Jays would say 'Clement and Schneider are translating from Buffalo to Toronto with factor X' thus logically we should apply that same translation factor to Spencer. (ideally you would just apply long established milb to mlb translation factors, however there is an argument that all those are meaningless because of the strike zone challenges in the minors have f***ed everything up). 2. Spencer has no power (correction he has 12 homer power) and no first basemen without power has ever gotten more then negative 2 WAR at the major league level... or so we thought... however our data department just brought us a list of all 1b men 'without power' who ever had 3+ WAR and there are quite a few names on the list. 3. Just because 20 1b men without power (or something like that) since 1990 were good, that is meaningless. Could be there were 25000+ 1b in Buffalo/Scranton/Rochester/Sacramento etc. who hit .344 .470 .490 in those place and the success rate is really just 20/25000 so f*** Spencer. 4. Before f***ing SPencer at least get the right number of players like Spencer in high minors (it's not 25000) since 1990 and what percentage had success. Do highly advanced math (a/b) to get success rate. Reality YO BRO. 1b without power sucks. Spencer sucks. YOOOO!

Prediction. Vlad release day, the Bo Trade and Jackson Holliday's rookie of the year award, and Rutchman's MVP award will happen the same week. Pure unlimited joy without end for the Orioles fan base and pain for ours. Just the way the cookie crumbles.

I was at a recent Hartford Yardgoat game and the AA Orioles were playing. They got destroyed. Basallo did not look too impressive. I saw Baby Vlad at the same stadium in 2018 and he was impressive. Like his foul balls almost hit the Hartford Group Deer Statue, his line drive outs almost took the left fielders glove off. His double down the line was also 115 mph. Basallo (1 game) was all soft useless contact and a suprisingly weak looking guy with a lot of soft contact. That being said I don't believe in fans being able to super scout, so based on the Orioles track record I predict Basallo will have end up being the bat we wanted Vlad to be. Congratulations to the Orioles for creating the greatest franchise ever... 100 wins a year for 20 years straight? 8 world series titles? 6 hall of famers? So much joy, so much happiness for a generation of Orioles fans to look forward to. The Beavers guy also did not look impressive, and they played a kind of dirty dirty 'Two beavers are better than one' song when he came up.

The flaw in the entire Horwitz narrative is that people are not considering what is the WAR of a .280 .360 .430 first basement with 12 homers They are not considering what is the sample size population of Howritz like entities THERE ARE 0 1b who are successful with 9 HOMERS ---- therefore --- howritz will fail. Well there are a handful of 1b who have done 3-5 WAR with 10-15 homer power. Some of them gain power too in their late 20s. What is the population from which they come from? GOOD ARGUMENT - Horwitz will fail Youkillus made it, but he was one out of 1000. Remember Bud Dookey? Remember Pat Smith? Remember Roger De Cruz? Remember Samuel P. Trent? Remember Auku Soni? Remember Tray Twotone? Remember all these guys and 1000 others? They all hit .300 .450 .450 in triple a. Happense all the time, but it is only 1 of 1000 of these guys that suceeed. Went to international league game July 20th 2019... there were 8 players in the game with OPS of .900 based on .450 on base, .450 slugging, they are so common, all these guys with .420 on base percentage, so many of them, and they work at the Home Depot now telling stories of the time they lined it in the gap and took 2 walks in Scranton.