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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    ?? How do you figure 10.8. 4/5 heads is .15625. If you believe the pitching matches still favour us... it is slightly higher. Homefield advantage as well. 20%
  2. Olerud363
    It's still coin flipping, 4/5 heads I think is 5/32
  3. Olerud363
    How many 7 game ALCS have there been?? This is the 32nd. Half of them should of gone 0-2, that's 15... 3 come backs?? 3/15=20% That makes sense.
  4. Olerud363
    It's happened many times. Jays were up 2-0 on KC in 85 lost, down (in a 5) 2-0 just last year and won. The situation still really sucks. Most teams down 2-0 obviously lose. Over the long course of history many, many teams have been down 2-0, I am guessing 20% came back.
  5. Olerud363
    Well, I thought that was a reasonable post given the situation... had a great year... odds are long for us to advance now... Maybe the team will give us more memorable moments, maybe not.
  6. Olerud363
  7. Olerud363
    I did too. Kind of sucks, s*** happens... This isn't a collapse. It's the same team it was all year. Aging sluggers, and a declining offense that got worse as the season went on. We had a nice series of memorable games... just laid a couple of eggs. There is no narative. The team gave us a lot, maybe they will still give us more. Maybe they won't.
  8. Olerud363
    Exact same feeling. Luckily this looks like an ordinary loss. Not a gut-cruncher like the pop-up loss in game 2. Different than last year. An old team that ran out of luck, and got beat by a very good young team, last year KC had a lot of luck, starting with the popup loss.
  9. Olerud363
    I could easily see Grant arguing in favour of ZARP. Grant - "Even Dave Cameron would admit there isn't much difference between ZARP and WAR. Look at the yearly ZARP leaders. Trout has won a title, Bonds won a few. Just as one would expect using an advanced metric. In fact ZARP is probably a better metric to use for postseason. The guys who win ZARP titles, often go on to have postseason success. Gary Carter, Joe Carter, Paul Molitor, Scott Rolen, Albert Pujols. All these guys won a ZARP title, then went on to get World Series rings. I doubt that is coincidence."
  10. Olerud363
    It just doesn't mess up things as drastically as one would like... Sure Joe Carter wins a ZARP crown, but so does Trout, and Bonds has three.
  11. Olerud363
    I was hoping it would routinely show players like Joe Carter, and Eric Hosmer as being better than Barry Bonds and Mike Trout. Unfortunately Trout and Bonds, routinely score and drive in enough runs that this doesn't happen. Though I think Hosmer beat Trout in 2015... and by my calculations they are really close the last couple years It does bring Carter.Hosmer much closer to Trout/Bonds... so in that sense it does it;s job... Trout + Bonds career WAR - like 200 Carter + Hosmer - I don't know <20?? Zaun System - Trout/Bonds - 1.15 or something Zaun System - Carter/Hosmer - 1.00 or something
  12. Olerud363
    The main reason, I can see, that it wouldn't work in the playoffs, is the possibility they are not projecting playing time correctly. In a short series more playing will go to the better players, especially pitchers, than in an ordinary 3-7 game regular season stretch. The other reason it wouldn't work, is if there are deterministic psychological factors at play. I don't believe in the latter. I am not sure about the first one.
  13. Olerud363
    Martin has a slightly higher 2016 obp, and career road obp. One could argue Martin gets on base "slightly" more. Not saying it's enough, but it is a small point in favour of Martin.
  14. Olerud363
    Maybe... it's just sooo... typical Grant... Projections are just Big Data AIs, Grant is smarter than big data. One would assume that any observation Grant can make, the fangraphs people can make too, and use it to make their AI better. Or perhaps the AI can beat humans... but not according to Grant. Order of intelligence 1. Grant 2. Big data 3. Common people
  15. Olerud363
    Here is what Grant thinks, vs. Reality, Hypothetically say we did did for several lifetimes, it would take that long to see the advantages of the projection system... here is what Grant (in his strange little mind) thinks would happen Grant - 727/1000 series correct luck - 505/1000 series correct Projection System - 420/1000 series right Here is an example of what would really happen Projection System - 557/1000 series right Grant - 507/1000 series right Luck - 498/1000 series right Grant would cherry pick that he at least beat luck, but it's just that even after 1000 series the odds wouldn't quite even out.
  16. Olerud363
    You are such an unpleasant truly vile human being... Their projections are good. Far better than you could do. If they predicted 100 series, they would likely beat you. They would get maybe 55 right. You would probably get 50. In any series the advantages are so small, it is, to say it again "a virtual coin flip" That means it takes 10s to hundreds of series for a prediction system to show it's slight advantage. You are true evil. Worse than Trump. You either have no understanding of statistical processes, or you are just a vile human being looking for attention. I am Grant, I am Clever, I am an elitist. I know secret little observations that the common man cannot see, that the statisticians cannot see, it is about me, me, I am clever. ME!!! Grant and Trump two selfish pees in a pod.
  17. Olerud363
    It probably has something to do with how they are estimating a) Kershaw and Hills number of innings pitched in the series Kershaw and Hills current performance level If the model weights 2016 performance of Kershaw and Hill highly, the Dodgers as currently construcuted are super awesome. If Kershaw and Hill could pitch a high percentage of the Dodgers innings that would be very good for Dodgers. I'm not sure if the models assumptions are realistic, it may be assuming Kershaw and Hill are starting 1-2, 4-5 and 7... when they might not be because they pitched yesterday.
  18. Olerud363
    What part of it do you disagree with?? This __IS__ the Trump phenomena in a nutshell. 1. Ordinary guy goes to work, or sits down at night to watch his game, or gos to his bowling Alley. 2. Job is moved to mexico, game is over before he gets home, bowling alleay closes. 3. Guy is frustrated, coorporate elite *******s have taken away everything he liked. 4. Guy listens to Rush Limbaugh, it is the only that makes sense any more. 5. Ironically Limbaugh a fake shitball put out there by same coorporate hipsters who f***ed him. 6. World makes no sense. Trump is an *******, but might as well vote for him over coorporate hipster globalists who closed his bowling alley, and moved the game to 4:00.
  19. Olerud363
    What a f***ing ridiculous Joke. This is why they are voting for Trump. The absolute greed and stupidity and s***ing on the common man. The common Joe from Cleveland, or Rob Ford voter from Toronto, or non-hollyood LAer gets _maybe_ half a game after working a 9:00 to 5:00. While the f***ing elitist, coorporate hipster from Chicago, works their fake job, and then gets a perfect game time, drinks some beers, and shows up at their fake job at 10:45 the next day.
  20. Olerud363
    That doesn't mean the system doesn't work... The question is could it get 17/30 (or something) series right...
  21. Olerud363
    It essentially went Joe Carter, Shaun Green, Raul Mondesi, Alex Rios, Jose Bautista... Rios and Green had some nice years, Carter and Mondesi were over-rated... can't see there was a 20 year struggle to find a right fielder... actually quite a lot of consistency at that position, Even going back to Barfield
  22. Olerud363
    Couldn't they have waited until the winner of tonights game?? If LA wins both LA, and Toronto times will be sub-optimal. 4:00, and I am guessing 5:00ish LA time They could of done both at 6:00 local time
  23. Olerud363
    A coin flip system actually predicts the winner more often than any other system, which means all other systems are actually inverted so team quality is a disadvantage in the playoffs. The goal is to get as close to 90 wins as possible without going over. Edwin could be part of this. He is perfectly suited to help us to the sweet spot as he subtly declines. Won't tank us to 80 wins, but he won't drive us to 95 wins or (shudder) more.
  24. Olerud363
    The greatest posters in Blue Jays history have never gotten Grant to admit he is wrong on anything, it is impossible. The only round about way to get a small amount of satisfaction is to post the same things Grant does, and enjoy the reactions.
  25. Olerud363
    They need to change the division series to 7 games. It was really unfair for the Giants... the sample size wasn't large enough for luck to even out, and for the better team to win. Also Bumgarner could of pitched 3 times in a 7 game series, and the Giants would of won.
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