Olerud363

I can't remember for sure, but I think the data says the best hitters should be 1, 2 and 5... on account of 5 leading off the inning the second inning the most. Maybe that's complete ********, maybe it's 1,2 and 4. Maybe the optimal lineup has Vlad lead offf, just get him the most at bats. I don't know, and don't feel strongly about this. I suspect the data says the best two hitters should be 1,2 and the 34d best hitter should be four or 5... but since Vlad is the best hitter he should really be 2... unless you think Bo is the best hitter. Well it should be Bo Vlad who cares Biggio Smoak who care *4

Does any one know if the players to be named later are dependent on Sogard and/or the Rays success??

Both Hernandez and Gurriel have done a little better than what their minor league stats predicted**. Castro and Jose Reyes actually seem like a pretty good best case scenario. Reyes was a 5 WAR player in his prime, Castro 3. It would be amazing if Bo is like Reyes. I guess I'm a little confused exactly what your gripe is?? All these players come up, and as a group they kind of hit like their minor stats predict. Are their people that really think Teoscar or Bo are .400 hitters after a week?? It seems to me most on the board are pretty good at interpreting minor league stats. Bo Bichette came up, had some high average years in the low minors, not as much in the high minors. Looks like he'll be a .280 hitter in the majors, of course if things break right (like they could for anyone) he could be significantly better... yeah, like Jose Reyes won a batting title, and that's kind of what Bo might be like if things go well... though I wouldn't count on it. How does the board value these players any differently then the stats do or you do?? ** (I mean combined Hernandez and Gurriel have done a bit better then the minor stats would predict, I think Gurriel's average is a little high, Hernandez a little low, but if they are both given 1000 more at bat, I bet that normalizes, and they both end up as similar hitters, acceptable if their outfield defense is good)

So maybe Atkins is an alpha after all Atkins to twins - get the best offer in by noon Twins - (crickets) Atkins - OK. No reply. THEN f*** YOU. NO STROMAN FOR YOU. f*** OFF. THANKS. (Twins learn lesson, next time they will be all like "Yes sir Mr. Atkins, we'll get the offer in right away, by 11:00 even, anything else you need Mr. Atkins??")

I feel like the best way to answer these questions is to collect the 10 minor league players most like Tellez and show what happened to them. There perhaps needs to be a more sophisticated system, then just matching average minor league performance, as Tellez has had some pretty extreme ups and downs (2016 and 2017). Of course on the other hand maybe the ups and downs may just be random. Maybe a true value .260 .340 .440 minor league hitter, could have a .280 .370 .500 season followed by a .220 .270 .320 season (or whatever it was) just by chance... So I guess to answer your question you need to do the following. 1. Compile a list of similar players to Tellez and record their outcomes. 2. Hire a expert sports psychologist and discuss Tellez's 2016 and 2017 seasons in the context of his personal issues and determine whether perhaps 2017 is an outlier caused by distress. Or perhaps 2016 and 2017 are just the extreme outcomes of random variables.

Shapiro - "Please, speak as you might to a young child, or a golden retriever" Atkins - Well sir, we've crunched the numbers and SWR is off the charts, think Noah Syndergard but no one knows it yet... we need to get this guy at all costs. Shapiro - "OK. OK. What else" Atkins - I really want this guy, but it's a bit risky so we should get at least 2 or 3 other pieces to mitigate the risk. And we should let a few other teams counter offer just to see... but MAN I want this guy!!!!, Lets get this guy!!!!" Shapiro - "Let me make the call"

They would be very good Alphas. They are all alphas. They just need a beta to do the number crunching, and the paperwork, and stuff. Dave Stewart is not a great GM because I think he got involved with transvestite prostitutes and that probably sucked some of his alphas. The thing is you need an Alpha and beta team. , If Atkins works hard, he's a perfectly fine "GM", just needs an alpha (Trump, Cherry, Steve Balmer, etc.) to do the talking. I thought that was the entire deal with the modern "President", "GM" setup???? Like isn't Shapiro now an alpha, who earns several million dollars for working Occasionally, like very occasionally, but when the s*** hits the fan, he performs some magic with 30 minutes work?? While Atkins works 90 hours a week but mostly at clerical stuff... PLEASE WATCH THIS - 9 minutes long, but you see what I mean... eventually the alpha talks, but only briefly

Barker, Zaun, Don Cherry, Trump, Mel Gibson, Quentin Taratino, Bill O'Reilly, John McAfee, John Gibbons of course and probably a few other I am forgetting Those are the top tier of alpha males, any of them would do a great job at GM, some would have a learning curve if they aren't in the industry right now, but all great leaders and great negotiators, and a little scary, those are the qualities you need. Like I said some would have a learning curve but someone like Atkins could be the assistant, and just provide the info while the alpha does the negotiating. I guess thinking about it why isn't Shapiro doing the negotiating?? Assuming he has alpha qualities. Alphas know the game, and want to work 2-5 hours a week if possible. So yeah, Shapiro doesn't want to be "GM". But why can't he just parachute in for negatiating when needed?? While Atkins does all the paper work??

I haven't felt this bad about losing a good stat scouting guy since AA traded patorsomebody who walked a lot like Stevenson and short guy (collins?) who struck out 15 per 9.

Except for ERA Woods-Richardson is ahead of Pardinho in everything... innings pitched, k-rate, bb-rate... Interesting that right now, when they updated the top 30 list, they also put Pardinho ahead http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=tor That being said both Richardson and Kay have a bit of bad luck with their ERA. I wonder if they had the same amount of good luck on their ERAs if this trade would be viewed completely differently. hmmmm... I guess Kay has had both bad luck and good luck, as his aa era of 1.xx and triple a era of 6.xx are probably both misleading. So... If a) Kay just had a 3.21 era in both places and Woody (whos peripherals are better than Sanchez and even Syndergaard at the same level) had a 2.88 era, or whatever his peripherals predict... would everybody love the trade then????

No. His strike out rate is higher. In terms of 1. Strike outs 2. walks 3. HR He is way better then Sanchez. Aaron Sanchez (19) 51 walks... 90ish strikeouts This other guy -- 17 walks, 97 strikeouts. He is closer to Syndergard at 19, except a year younger... less walks. Three people Syndergard 31 walks 122 ks 100 innings 3 hr Sanchez 51 walks 90iwsh ks 100 innings 7 hr Simeon 17 walks (17!) 97 ks 78 innings 5 hr Simeon has the strikeout rate of Syndergaard and an even lower walk rate. Don't know anything about the scouting... this is just stats Simean is a year younger than Sanchez and Syndergard (18 vs 19) in their low a year

Isn't Stroman a perennial 3 WAR guy basically except for the injury years?? So why would anybody trade 1.5 years of a 3 WAR guy for 6 years?? There's some semantics here, but a lot people's idea of floor is too high, and ceiling too low. I think people don't get the amount of variation there is in outcomes. Carlos Danger can explain it I suspect. People are smart, they do whatever gets them cookies. Being very certain (full of ********) gets people corporate cookies. So of course they learn that behavior. Smiley suit - "This product line will make 36 million next year, of that I am confident" Bigger suit - "Excellent Smiley, you are promoted" (Product loses 22 million) Bigger suit - "Smiley suit, use your confidence to fire the engineers for this fiasco" Smiley suit (smiling)

He looks awful for the last 6 weeks. His first few weeks it seemed he was hitting 115 mph liners once a game. I can’t remember him hitting anything like that since early June. It’s bizarre. Maybe he has a hand issue or something...

It's insane. Carter = Candy Maldonado or Brook Jacoby... I mean not exactly... he got his 4.6 WAR season or two, but so did Jacoby. Maldanodo was the same guy without 162 games in the 3rd spot, didn't get the 4.6 WAR season, but didn't get the -2 WAR season either. The only reason we talk about him is that he got 162 games a year in the 3rd spot on good teams and racked up RBI totals. In fact Jacoby isn't remembered because he hit behind Carter so didn't get RBIs. Olerud lost a potential MVP partly because he got a bit cold in September 1993... but partly because he hit behind Carter. If it was AMOCW, Olerud and Carter would of probably both had 130 rbis, maybe Olerud would of won the 1993 MVP and Carter the RBI title... it would been better for both of them. However out of a deep and serious and integral respect for White and Carter the entire team (and Carter himself) had to be put in a non-optimal situation.

Just so everyone can understand why I am so upitty about this. The day after the 1993 World Series John Olerud had 37 of his 53 career WAR left in him, a repeat of the magical 1993 season (in 1998), and several solid years to come. Joe Carter had -8 WAR left in him (that's negative). The Jays decided to play Carter every single game after that and signed him to an extension for 1997, while platooning and marginalizing Olerud (by 1996 he didn't get 400 at bats and wasn't on the DL).

It's certainly not revitionist history Dick. a) I pointed out Grichuk doesn't play 162 games hitting 3rd, partly because of health, partly because he's Grichuk. Other than that he is a good match for Carter. Grichuk's 2015 in 103 games is a good match for Carter's 1986. Grichuk's 2016 to 2018 are close to Carter's 92. Numbers go up and down, even WAR. Carter had a couple 5 WAR seasons, but had a -2 WAR season right in the middle of his prime. He was a 2.5 WAR player who played 162 games a year. Given 162 games a year and enough time Grichuk would probably have a negative season and a 4 or 5 WAR season. They signed Carter to an extension at 35 while trading Olerud at 28 with 30 WAR and another 1993 remaining in his career. They played Carter every single day for 4 years after the world series while losing everyone else, and platooning Olerud (with the occassional rest against righties to get Jacob Brumfield time). FYI - Green and to a smaller extent Delgado weren't a focus of the team until Vietnam Vet Tim Johnson took over. In 1997 Green (at this point in his 3rd season and 24 years old) had to sit patiently while they tried out Ruben Sierra and Juan Samuel. When Green finally got 500 at bats he had soured on the organization and wouldn't sign long term, and had to be sent out for Raul Mondesi. If they were building around him they didn't do a great job. And ironically got (what they thought) was another great one in the mold of Carter and George Bell (I like Bell a lot better then Carter). Mondesi unfortunately was more Carter than Bell, without the supporting cast and the health to play 162 games. And actually Mondesi was another guy whos WAR is a lot like Carter's (without as many -2 seasons). 4 or 5 a couple years, a lot of 2s, and shipped for nothing eventually. Why is Carter valued so much higher then Mondesi (I can accept he's loved more obviously, but valued more?)

Biggio .270 .390 .450 (6 WAR) Bichette .300 .350 ..480 (5 WAR) Grichuk .250 .300 .490 120 RBI (2.8 WAR) Vlad .330 .450 .600 115 RBI (7 WAR) fans - Grichuk is the key. The guy you count on to drive in runs. More RBIs then Vlad.

I know you know. I wasn't aiming the post at you. More at people who weren't old enough to watch that team, or didn't realize where Carter actually ranked when you look at him with modern analytics. It's like if Vlad and Bo and Biggio all develop like we hope they will and put up 15 WAR each for 3 years and the Jays win the world series... but Randall Grichuk is allowed to hit 3rd for 162 games a year and all the fans think he's the best player... Wouldn't happen in this day and age... or maybe it will with Montoyo.

I'm just bringing up WAR now because it's easy to use to make point. Even in 92/93 fans were starting to look at on base percentage, position, baserunning, estimates of defense and putting rough values on players, and we knew Carter wasn't that good. Unfortunately the Jays didn't and built the 94-97 team around him as every other key player left.. didn't work out well.

He was the 6th best player on the World Series teams. White, Olerud, Alomar, Winfield/Molitor/, Lee/Fernandez were all better. He was closer to Candy Maldonado or Ed Sprague in terms of production, than White/Alomar/Molitor/Olerud. (edit) by closer I mean Carter beat Candy 2.9 to 2.3, he beat Sprague, 2-1.4... White/Alomar/Olerud/Molitor were like 6ish WAR player in 92/93.

For some reason I can't see the list... hmmm. Is Carter on the list and Olerud not?? Is FWAR true or not?? Olerud has 57 fWAR, and 22 with Jays. I think Carter is 17 and 8. Why is Carter on the list?? How many of the players on the list have more career fWAR than Olerud?? Where does Olerud rank in position player fWAR for players developed by the Jays??

I think he's just lost right now. I haven't watched much lately as I've been travelling, but checked fangraphs and his hard hit percentage is dropping. He's like 1 homer the last 5 or 6 weeks. The only at bat I saw was his third today. Didn't see the first pitch. Second pitch was a straight fastball outer third, but not on the corner. No idea why he took it. 3rd pitch was a slider way off the plate, and he didn't seem to recognize it until the last minute and barely held his swing. Fourth pitch was a hanger on the inside part of the plate, but hanging a bit. Should of swung at that too. It just looks to me like he's lost right now.

There must be a non-linearity in prospect value. Or at least that is the way the market seems to behave. You would think if the Jays want Tucker, they can offer Stroman + another prospect to even out the value. However I can't recall ever seeing a trade like that. For example a "Stroman + X for Tucker" type trade never happens. Say X=Conine. I guess Conine given age, level and strikeout rate, has value way below Tucker. Bichette has value = to tucker, but Jays of course wouldn't do Stroman + Bichette for Tucker. Logically one would think there is an 'X' somewhere between Conine and Bichette, that would make "Stroman + X" = Tucker. However that type of trade never happens.

f I understand this graph there is a drop down that allows you to switch stats. Pitch % - shows he is getting pitched out of the zone quite a bit. His highest pitch percentage is low just out of the zone. Swing % - shows he most often swings at pitches in the middle of the plate but has relatively high chase rates outside the zone. Avg % - shows his highest average is middle of the zone vertically, towards the outside half of the zone. Slg % - Same I don't see that he has a high average or slg on the pitches outside and low. It seems he is pitched often there because he swings relatively often there without great results. I could be misunderstanding the graphs. If I am I'll admit I was wrong.

He should be walking once a game with the way he is getting pitched. He'll continue to hit .250 and disappoint until he stops chasing. He's only 20. But he won't be what we want until he's stops chasing. That's the most dissapointing aspect of all this. Many young players take a while to stop chasing, but they weren't heralded as the greatest prospect ever. His chase rate isn't horrible but it's not elite. Yordan Alvarez has a bit higher chase rate, but a way lower zone-rate. So the issue Vladimir is a) sometimes chasing out of zone, swinging to much in zone, and hitting pitches he can't do anything with.