Olerud363

Moseby or Vernon Wells? Wow. They are way closer than I thought on Fangraphs. 1390ish games each 24.7ish WAR each. I thought Moseby would be ahead because of his walks and playing in a less hitter friendly era. Weird thing is Wells is kind of dinged for his defense despite winning 3 gold gloves. Wells best season (at least from what I remember) 2003, is only 4 WAR because of horrible defense (at least according to fangraphs).

I never knew that they were close in '86. Looks like they 3.5 out and in second place on August 31st of that year.

What I am trying to say is that in 2021 you don't need Bauer to be a world series contender. If you do have starters that can go late into playoff games that's good. But you could also do it with bullpen games and stuff. So another road to being a World Series contender is that all the depth is healthy in October. If Romano, Merryweather and Giles were healthy and lights out, and Ryu didn't blow up the first game even last years team could of gone far.

In the past if you make the playoffs it's anyone's game. Right now it's hard to see the Jays having the pitching to get through multiple playoff series, but that may be different a few months from now with some development and health. Stripling, Romano, Merryweather, Kay, Pearson, Kirby Yates, Ray,... who knows where these guys and a bunch of others will be early October. And who knows who else they sign or trade for. If in playoff position late July a couple of key parts for playoffs could be acquired then.

For the history buffs... Springer will play as a 31 year old next year. 31-36 over his contract. Joe Carter started his Jays career as a 31 year old and made the Beeston level of excellence. Jose Bautista did all-right enough as a 31-36 year old but year 36 was rough Come to think of it Carter's year 36 was rough too. Edwin had a good 31-36

Jesse Barfield. Wow. According to fangraphs Per game better then Andre Dawson, Pucket, Mattingly. Well, if you believe the defense. Barfield and Olerud are two guys who would of been better appreciated in the Fangraphs era. Kind of similar in a way, Barfield won the homerun title in 86, Olerud the batting title in 93. Both took a while to get 150 games and amazingly struggled to keep that status at times. Both could rock the league with near MVP seasons, but their 4 WAR seasons didn't look good to the stats keepers at the time. Both were in the shadow of RBI guys (Bell and Carter) that people thought were better, but weren't. Both traded to NY for a struggling pitcher with a good arm.

What was amazing was that the 1995 team was so bad despite, Olerud, Alomar, Molitor, White, Cone, Hentgen, Guzman, Delgado, Green, Leiter. All would have great seasons ahead, just many of them not for the Jays. Alomar and Olerud were 27 and 26 in 95, Delgado 23, Green 22, too bad they couldn't get those 4 rolling at the same time.

? Why. Welcome to NY Mets. Mets have more incentive to sign him now to change the narrative. I suspect they add 15 million to their offer and he's a Met in the next couple of days.

This is where we might be headed but anecdotally I've heard the 120+ relievers get their arm messed up pretty quick. I remember Eichorn and Ward complaining after their high inning seasons. Eichorn was 70 games 160 innings or so in 1986, and Ward 70 - 125 in 1990. However that is not where this is headed exactly. More like 40 games 140 innings. Any thoughts on whether that kind of usage pattern will cause issues? They'll complain about not getting wins, but that can be addressed by using a 1 winning opener, flipping piggy back arrangements, so guys can vulture 15+ wins in good seasons.

I didn't see a thread for this and it seems some of it has leaked into the other threads, and some people are starting a new thread for every historical discussion. Possible Topics 1. Was Roberto Alomar over-rated defensively? 2. Why did John Olerud only get 500+ at bats once with the Jays? 3. Why did Carlos Delgado get send down in 1994 and not up full time until 1996? 4. Why did Vernon Wells not play much in 2000 and 2001 ? 5. Why did Jose Cruz get sent down in 98 and 99 ? 6. Why was Greg Myers so good in 2003? 7. Why did Jesse Barfield fall apart after 87? Or did he fall apart? Maybe they just didn't realize he was still good even without 40 homers. Question 5 is as interesting if not more so than 3 or 4... Jose Cruz had numbers in 98 and 99 that could be confused with Cavan Biggios. The Blue Jays of 1994 to 2001 were not a progressive organization and had no idea who was good, even though they still were producing good players. They also had no idea John Olerud was good even in the years he didn't hit .350. The Jays of 83 to 2001 sometimes did a terrible job recognizing their own talent.. though they had a lot and no place for them all to play. Sometimes they did stupid things that those of us of an older age still aren't over.

He's played at a 3-4 win level for the last 2 years... albeit only 143 games. Reason he is over-rated - haven't looked into it, but I guess you are saying his batted ball data is not as good as his results, indicating results may not be sustainable. Reason he is under-rated - arguably he went through an adjustment to North America in 2017 and 2018, so his 2019/20 is more indicative of real ability. Reason 2 is fuzzy, but so are the reasons Kim will be good. Both are projected as 2 win players right now. One is cheaper.

I don't understand why everyone wants to trade LGJ. He is essentially already the expected outcome of Kim. Both are projected about the same next year. Is it because Kim has untapped potential and could develop even more then the projection?? Gurriel has been a 3-4 WAR player the last couple of years projected over 160... What if Gurriel took another step forward?? Or maybe he'll outperform the projection doing his 2019/2020 over 150 games instead of 70ish. Gurriel is also on a cheaper contract then Kim got.

Negotiation - San Diego - you can have 35 million (Agent asks Toronto for 40 million, Toronto Yes) San Diego - you can have 42 millon (Agent asks Toronto for 45 million, Toronto Yes) San Diego - you can have 47 million (Agent asks Toronto for 50 millon, Toronto Yes) San Diego - we are sticking with 47 million Press release: Kim to San Diego for 47 million

Friday Dec 10th 2011 - Darvish coming to Blue Jays with 100% Certainty Monday Dec 13th 2011 - Darvish coming to Blue Jays with 99% certainty, outside chance another team has made an offer Tuesday Dec 14th 9:55 pm - (New Hampshire Reporter) It is official. Blue Jays submitted highest bid. Welcome Yu Darvish Tuesday Dec 14th 10:00 pm - Darvish headed to Texas Rangers

Outside of 2019 Josh Bell has hit and fielded like Vlad Guerrero JR. Why would anybody want a 27 year old that hits like 21 year old Vlad Guerrero Jr without the potential of being still 21 and the high end pedigree and prospect rating?

In 2006 Troy played a couple of games at ss when a flyball pitcher was in... It didn't last long as John McDonald took over short for a couple of years starting about that time. John McDonald was fun to watch but would the better team of had Glauss at short and Erik Hinske at third and McDonald defensive replacement / occasional starter. 1. John McDonald was a negative WAR player despite the defense. 2. If Ripken and 2016 Tulo (who turned doubles into singles) could play + short stop Glauss could of played "not disastrous" short stop 3. Erik Hinske was repeating his rookie season in 2006 but had no where to play. The 2006 team was a team that needed 2020 management style. Lot's of good players that didn't quite work together.

An interesting discussion is who had hall of fame talent and could of made the hall of fame in an alternate Universe? Take Tony Fernandez. He wasn't quite there but at age 37 he developed into a patient .320 hitter with a .420 on base... was it just fluke or did he learn something and could that lesson of been learned 15 years earlier? Jesse Barfield - done at 31 when Joe Carter was just beginning his 7 year Blue Jays run (they are the same age). Was Barfield really done? Why did he peak at 26? Turf injury? In another world could he of had the longevity of Carter?

When talking hall of fame you don't just consider position. Fernandez had 43 WAR in his career. You can't say he deserved to go over a 60 WAR guy at another position, so you look at these guys together. There are multiple routes to the hall of fame, generally speaking you need 60 WAR to be considered Ozzie Smith route - historic defender Alomar/Jeter/Molitor route - average defender at premium position, great line drive hitter Thome/Guerrero route - great hitting slugger, little D If you want to compare him to short stops though Jeter - much better hitter Larkin - better hitter, just as good defensively Ripken - better hitter, better defensively Ozzie Smith - historic defensively It works out that Fernandez is behind all these guys. Great player, but not quite hall of fame. I can't remember the details of the knee injury, I do remember him getting hit in the face and the announcers thinking he was seriously injured... came back in 3 weeks but wasn't quite the same I don't think.

I didn't say he is going to be a good fielder. I said if he could go from -20 runs below average to -5 it would make a big difference in his WAR.

I'm really hesitant to give up anything in the top 7. Up to Orelvis Martinez. Not sure if it's possible to make a package without one of them though. Say you packaged Moreno, Hiraldo, Kloffenstein and Pardinho. Enough? If not, what kind of player could you get with that package? Am I over-rating the top 7? Seems like there is good reason to make each untouchable. It's really difficult with the missing minor league season. The top 7 all have good arguments that they could already be top 10 overall prospects. All 7 aren't because a team doesn't ever have 7 of the top 10 mlb prospects. Not every prospect develops. But which ones made the jump in 2020 and which ones didn't?

St. Louis had turf up to the late 90s. I think Ozzie Smith played his entire career on turf. When did Fernandez's knee problem become really bad?? I think he missed the 96 season totally, but was healthy up to then. He was very good but never great. People probably won't like that take. He was great defensively, but not historically great like Ozzie Smith. He was a very good hitter for a short stop, but not nearly as good a hitter as say Alomar or Derek Jeter, or Paul Molitor... I mean he was the classic "line drive" hitter with a bit of pop, but a bit less average and less pop then the other good line drive hitters.

To put things in context for Vladdy Weight ranges from 240 to 280 Ground ball rate ranges from 45% to 55% Defense ranges from -20 to -5 If he can get close to 240, 45% and -5 he is no doubt an 8 WAR player If he is 280, 55%, and -20 he is a 0 WAR player. The weight might control the other two? 8 WAR too high?? John Olerud did 8 WAR twice, a 240 pound lightning cat Vlad with ground ball problems fixed, defense improved from "historically bad" to "just a bit bad" can do 8 WAR... might not get there we will see.

Thanks, I understand now that Grant was using TZ. Alomar is negative career with TZ, so without the positional adjustment he is even worse. The 1991 gold glovers rated by TZ are still +35 total, and 4ish on average. The system is somewhat hit and miss, but on average it rates gold glovers as positive. There aren't many other guys like Alomar, who were rated very high defensively, but had a long run of negative TZ. Craig Biggio is similar to Alomar I guess (in terms of defensive and offensive stats). Whitaker, White, Reynolds, and Sandberg all did well with TZ. Biggio was on turf, but so was Frank White. Biggio had his best season on Turf though, and didn't seem to improve when moving to grass. I think Laike mentioned that Alomar's Toronto stats are an outlier as compared to San Diego and after Toronto... It looks to me that Alomar's run of bad TZ went from 91 to 97, his first 2 years in Baltimore were bad. Maybe a lot of it is positioning and for some reason Alomar didn't get the positioning down until 98.

Maybe you are looking at stats with the position adjustments taken out? Where did you find that? If you are doing that, it is fine, but we have to do the same for Alomar, in which case he would be even a little worse each year. The entire time I've just been looking at the fangraphs defense raw totals as presented on the player page just before the WAR column. If your stats have an adjustment what is it and how do we get Alomar's stats with the adjustment? ** ** this is confusing so the best thing to do is link to the stat you are using, or give enough information so someone else can look up the stat. I personally am comfortable with the "adjusted" fangraphs totals. I know 30 is a great score for a short stop... I know 0 is actually a good score for 1b. I know -20 Vlad like numbers are bad. Other stats have different scales and adjustments, so just tell us what stat you use and point us to it.

What don't I know?? Fan graphs has a collumn called defense. The numbers you reported do not match fangraphs defense statistic. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ozzie-guillen/1005125/stats?position=SS For example you reported that Ozzie Guillen had a defense of '13' in 1990, no clue what that means. Fan graphs had him at 21 runs above average that year. Stop being a jerk. 13 doesn't equal 21, if you are getting your numbers somewhere else, or looking at a different stat, just say where and what.