Dick_Pole

And yet I've seen the same thing come up over and over again lol.

I posted most of this content in the Utley thread in response to a poster who used the NHL contract as an excuse for the Jays' payroll problems but it's not that topical so I figured I would make a new thread. I'm like a broken record occasionally dispersing this information on this board, but the payroll constraints have 99% to do with how Rogers is doing overall and maybe 1% to do with hockey. At the time of the Marlins trade, some genius in the company probably forecasted 5% or more growth on their wireless and cable businesses. Then they had to re-rate all their US roaming plans in May 2013 which was a gold mine for them and their stock price tanked. I'm sure one of the first things they did when that happened was pull any increase to the Jays' payroll off the table. Look at the stock price chart comparing to the SPY (S&P ETF - a general market indicator). http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=RCI+Interactive#{%22range%22%3A%222y%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%2C%22comparisons%22%3A{%22SPY%22%3A{%22color%22%3A%22%23cc0000%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1}}} Rogers' stock price was $45 when the Marlins and Dickey trades happened in Dec 2012. Now it's $38 but keep in mind that during that time the stock market in general has gone up 50% so the drop looks even worse in comparison. If Rogers' stock was at $55 or something and the business was doing well, the payroll would probably be $200 million with an inefficiently-built playoff team. It would have nothing to do with the hockey contract. The hockey contract would be a cash drain but not an EBITDA drain because it's accounted for differently on the books. Player salaries are expensed and incurred within the same year so that's a lever that can be used to improve cash position and profits in-year which is what Rogers wants in order to save the stock price and save executive bonuses for 2015 (2014 is already a goner for them).

I tend to agree with you say except for the fix above, and I disagree about Dickey's contract. $12M is very reasonable for a 200+ IP 2+ WAR pitcher. It's just that the return won't be as good as what AA gave up in the first place. I'm like a broken record occasionally dispersing this information on this board, but the payroll constraints have 99% to do with how Rogers is doing overall and maybe 1% to do with hockey. At the time of the Marlins trade, some genius in the company probably forecasted 5% or more growth on their wireless and cable businesses. Then they had to re-rate all their US roaming plans which was a gold mine for them and their stock price tanked. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=RCI+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%222y%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%2C%22comparisons%22%3A%7B%22SPY%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23cc0000%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1%7D%7D%7D Rogers' stock price was $45 when the Marlins and Dickey trades happened in Dec 2012. Now it's $38 but keep in mind that during that time the stock market in general has gone up 50% so the drop looks even worse in comparison. If Rogers' stock was at $55 or something and the business was doing well, the payroll would probably be $200 million with an inefficiently-built playoff team.

I love it man...by the time the Jays have finally settled on a hitting coach, they'll have gone through my entire 1991 Topps Baseball Card collection....Seitzer, Jacoby...all these names from memory lane.

I'm fully on board with the idea that you rotate the DH with your various aging and oft-injured vets. Getting 2 infielders and 1 OF (either Melky or someone else) allows for such a rotation.

Kris Medlen is the name that stands out for me. He's probably just on the list so the Braves can renegotiate his contract though.

Funny, because I have the exact opposite view of yours. I think there's indications that the starting staff should equal or do better than last year. We're so conditioned to injuries that we're not use to a starting staff that isn't injured. MB & RA - they're good for 400-450 IP unless the reaper comes up on their career. Hutch - came back from an injury to throw 180 IP of a K per inning. If he's luckier this year or there's better defense behind him, expect significant improvement on his numbers. Happ - increased velocity, most IP he's had in 5 years and coming up on a contract year. I think he should do better than last year Stroman - the wild card. He could be the ace, or could be the #5 guy limited to less than 150 innings depending on how his year goes and how carefully the Jays tread with him. I'm not saying that there isn't risk of injury, there always is. But in terms of limited resources if I was in charge of this team I would have to assume that those guys are good to go for 2015 and put everything into making sure they have an easy time with the best defense and offense possible backing them up. If those 5 guys tank, the Jays aren't making the playoffs anyways.

I understand what you're saying, but my point is what's more achievable in practice. It's easy to upgrade 2B, because 2B for the Jays is crap. Mike Trout isn't coming here unless significant holes were created elsewhere. I know you meant it as just an example, but it isn't an achievable scenario. Out of the scenarios that are achievable given the circumstances, 2B is much important to upgrade over anything else.

I'm so f***ing sick of the BP. The five guys who ended in the rotation threw 890 innings last year. Happ and Stroman didn't start the year in the rotation. Depending on how willing they are to stretch out Stroman those five guys could approach 1000 innings next year. The bullpen will be one of the most underworked in the league. And an underworked bullpen = a pretty good shot of being a dominant bullpen. Cecil, Sanchez, Loup. That's a good base to start off of. Righty BP guys are a dime a dozen. Redmond can cover the long man/mop up stuff. Estrada (if still around) will be in the mix, or failing him, McGowan. Really the Jays only need one guy, and I wouldn't lose sleep if they don't get one and just invite Delabar back into the mix. Drabek, Hendriks, Graveman should all be in the mix too. And like I said, the BP guy should be way down the priority list, one head of Martinez. If one of those guys in the rotation gets injured, or blows up, forget it the Jays aren't going anywhere near the playoffs anyways. The best chance this team has of winning is just assume that everyone in the rotation is going to repeat what they did last year or do better, and put every penny of available resources into defense and offense at the biggest holes.

I'm not really sure about what you're arguing here. Assuming no follow up moves and the Jays could acquire Phillips or Martinez, I'd take Phillips hands down. He can replace Goins. The DH role can be rotated. And I disagree with your statement "No position is more important than another according to math". The DH position is unquestionably less important than a player who fields. And AA will find that Reyes will be good enough to probably take 20 or so of those DH slots throughout the year.

Victor Martinez would be the #6 priority on this team: #1. Quality defense-first MIF who can play everyday and has a workable bat #2. Melky or some kind of OF solution that doesn't have the year start with Gose, Pompey and Pillar as the three guys filling up CF and LF. #3. Catcher upgrade #4. Another MIF to cover for injuries/guys subbing into the DH role. We have to assume somebody who is good enough to cover 100 games 400 PA. #5. Relief pitching #6. Victor Martinez #7. Ace (Long shot and expensive)

And 28 other teams would have said that about EE a few years ago. With someone's head in a noose in Oakland and someone else's head almost in a noose here. Can't be complaining about the minnow that got away when we had the big fish slip out of the boat here but managed to reel him back in somehow.

Pompey has shown he can hit AA/AAA pitching as a 21 year old. Goins has shown he can't really hit AA/AAA pitching at a 24-26 yo.

It looks like the Gose-lovers and Gose-haters are just going more and more extreme with their comments. One example of him getting picked off doesn't justify throwing away the entire player's skill set. The ability to be fast in CF is just one dimension of OF defense. Gose has an ability to track the ball, which Rajai doesn't. Rajai can use speed to make himself a passable (not great) defensive outfielder and overcome his weaknesses. Gose has the basics and can use his speed to become an elite defender.

Now I get it why those other guys made fun of you for being a robot...that's the computeriest thing I've ever heard anyone say! Tee hee, you even used the word criteria in its correct singular form. No one does that!

I recognize that you're making lemonade with lemons with this scenario, but Gose in this situation really doesn't make sense. His bat doesn't play well for LF and his defensive skills won't be maximized in that position. Plus platooning him doesn't really make sense since he's kind of s*** against both sides of the plate although against LHP he is worse in a little over 100 PA. You don't tailor your team around an optimized Mayberry platoon, he's replaceable. You tailor the team as best as possible to the guys who you think can add value, and that in theory should be Gose. I hope Gose is the man for CF starting in 2015 and he earns the job with good defense and adequate offense, not given by default if Pompey ends up proven too green in the spring. But if he doesn't, a platoon LF is not what he is made for. You're better off just shipping him out in a trade. Gose is one of two things. Either starting CF or 4th OF/pinch runner/defensive replacement when needed. Not platoon LF. There's a pretty good chance he turns into a negative WAR player in left and if we've seen him sulk before, it will be 10x as bad then.

With the exception that we would have to assume that AA has the skill set in order to attract a new free agent of significance not tarnished by a drug suspension that fulfills a need. 5 years on the job and there's a big goose-egg under that column. AA is kind of like a fat, ugly chick trying to score a mate. If she happens to get to know someone through work or school she has a chance to woo him over time like AA wooed Escobar into that good contract. But lord help her if she goes onto POF or Tinder trying to pick up a random.

I lol'd a bit at this. Because the fact that nobody knows this or vaguely recalls some sort of "offseason knee surgery" for him shows what a worthless player he's become. Truly nobody cares anymore. Imagine how ridiculous someone would sound on this board if they were unaware of the injury to even some 24th piece on a 25 man roster like Izturis. But Romero...ya no f***ing clue if that guy's alive or not.

Good idea...I'm no big fan of Saunders but he is an improvement over the current signed players but flipping Estrada for him makes sense for this team. Not so sure about Seattle's point of view.

They intend to win their division by three games next year so it won't be a problem.

I miss the days of 9 man pitching staffs...4 starters and 5 relievers where pitchers were men and a 91 MPH fastball was considered plus stuff. Now they're just replaceable shoulders. I hope we eventually see a movement back to Maddux and Buehrle types where pitchers are valued for their durability, brains and fielding more that how fast they can throw a pitch. They're going to have to if teams put so much investment into young fireballers and they keep blowing out their shoulders. The FIP movement is fine, but you can strike guys out with more than just heat.

I'd rather just stick Gose at third than Bautista lol

Guys can we all just pretend that Yan Gomes was traded for Jose Bautista instead of that jobber catcher and call it a wash? In the trade market you win some and you lose some. The problem is people only reflect on the losers and what could have been. What have the Pirates done since trading Bautista? Moved on and became a playoff contender.

Oh I know. I enjoyed Davis while he was here. He was entertaining to watch even with his quirks and I enjoyed his balls-out baserunning. Took me back to the Alomar days when his specialty was stealing third. Gose has the tools to be at Davis' level in 2013 but has so far disappointed. That's where I think the whole "he's not even a good baserunner" argument comes into play. Ok, he's "good" compared to the average player but for a two-tool player his production on the basepaths outside of his cup of coffee in 2012 has not cut it so far. That being said I really hope he takes the bull by the horns, earn that CF job that will be half-given to him in the spring and puts up fluky Dee Gordon type of numbers offensively next year.

Crudely...Reyes played "about" twice as much as Gose last year. Davis played a full season in 2012 but 2011 and 2013 he played slightly more than Gose in 2014.