jaysblue

AA took over after the 2009 season and put together a World Series contender in 2015. It's unfortunate that he couldn't stay around longer past 2015. Atkins took over after 2015 and while the Jays were World Series contenders in 2016, a lot of that was left over from AA's tenure. We'll see what the Blue Jays do this season, though don't think they're World Series contenders thus far. 2023 and 2024 are the real test IMO and like you said, Atkins is in year 7 already and likely won't be until year 8 or 9 until the Blue Jays win a World Series.

Probably yes, though a lot could change still over the last 1.5 months. In the AL, I wouldn't forget about Dylan Cease who has pretty much been even with Verlander till this point, minus 3 wins. Gasuman could be in the conversation, but voters would never vote for him given his 8-8 record. In the NL, Rodon and Fried are deserving as well, though Alcantara with his sub-2 ERA likely makes him the front runner at this moment.

Mariners are going to be a dangerous team down the stretch and in the Postseason. They won't be a walk-over.

Yes, but you can't be riding everything on Pearson and Merryweather becoming elite relievers to save the pen. They definitely have the stuff and potential to be. Even still, the Blue Jays can still add or upgrade to the pen, even with Pearson and Merryweather in the fold still. What is stopping them? To be honest, I'm in favour of the Blue Jays handing out a BJ Ryan contract to an elite pen arm given this teams position and window. Let's be realistic here - the Blue Jays best window for a World Series is 2023 and 2024. After that, the window starts to close. Once guys like Teo and Lourdes walk, Vladdy, Bo, Kirk, Manoah become very expensive, Springer gets older, if Gausman has some regression near the end of his contract, it's going to make chasing a World Series a lot tougher. And never count out the Yankees or Red Sox from spending money and putting together a super team. And you can never count out the Rays any given season as well.

100% on board with this. Pearson as a lights out BP arm is more valuable to the Blue Jays right now and in 2023 and 2024. Given the Blue Jays rotation at the top (Gausman, Manoah, Berrios) and window to contend for a World Series, hoping Pearson makes it as a starter won't help this organization during that timeframe. Yes if the Blue Jays were still rebuilding, you can be more patient with Pearson as a starter, though given the Jays position right now and for the next two/three years, Pearson is more valuable as an elite reliever on this team.

Calling me a doomscroller? Yes I was willing to roll the dice on Pearson or Merryweather becoming an elite arm in the bullpen and still am even for next season as well. Though when the plan fails a second and third time, what next? How long does the organization wait for Pearson to become an elite bullpen arm? 3 to 4 years?

I agree that one of Pearson or Merryweather can really make a big difference in the pen. I've said at the beginning of the season if Pearson can pull an Aaron Sanchez 2015, that would be a huge boost for the Blue Jays. How long do we wait for that to happen though? Also, why should that stop the Jays from looking to upgrade the bullpen in the offseason? As well, the names you listed above, while solid arms, we both know bullpen arms can be volatile. What happens if one or two of those arms regress big time next season or suffer a serious injury? You always need pitching depth and arms that you can call upon during a season. Look at elite organizations like the Dodgers, Astros, and Rays as examples. At some point in time, the Blue Jays FO can't be rolling out mediocre bullpens every season with this elite core of players and starting pitchers they have. You can't be wasting the 2023 or 2024 season in hoping that you can cheaply build an elite bullpen. It's definitely possible as we've seen previous Blue Jays FO's building elite pens and other organizations as well, but even most of those organizations like the Rays, A's, Royals had payroll constraints so its understandable.

I also agree that the Blue Jays shouldn't trade elite prospects just for a top reliever or closer. Like you said, there is definitely a lot of luck involved and even signing a top FA closer doesn't always work out since relievers can be very volatile, even the best ones. Still, the Blue Jays will eventually need to spend on the pen, whether its with cash or through trade, and get lucky developing some BP arms as well (failed starters, high upside guys who have shown high K rates in the minors or majors, reclamation projects etc.). If this team expects to contend for a World Series in 2023 or 2024, they can't do it with a mediocre pen every season. You can't waste the window you have with this core intact. Eventually if they can't get lucky with developing or finding guys on the cheap, then they need to sign a top reliever FA or trade for one in the offseason. Not saying they go crazy and pay an enormous price of prospects or dollars for a reliever, though they definitely will need to spend some money on upgrading bullpen if the team expects to be World Series contenders in 2023 and 2024.

Yeah definitely will have to ride the Teo and Gurriel contracts out. Unless it's a favourable extension for both parties, though I'm sure if Teo has a monster 2023 season, he'll want to cash in after on a big deal. That's why I've been saying, lets hope the Blue Jays can take advantage of these next couple of seasons when they have guys like Teo under control, along with Vlad, Bo, Kirk at very reasonable contracts because the Blue Jays won't be able to afford all of them once their expensive arbitration years come around or when they hit free agency. Replacing a bat like Teo in free agency won't be easy. That's why these next two-three years are so important for the Blue Jays.

Yeah I can't really see any major difference from last season to this season. Pretty similar results thus far.

128 wRC+ and an .819 OPS this season still despite it being considered a "down year" for him compared to 2021. If he goes on a hot streak, his stats will look better. Don't see much of a difference between the 2021 and 2022 Teoscar.

The psychological aspects definitely play a big role in baseball or any sports. Orioles have no pressure really and are playing loose. Blue Jays feel the pressure since they have had high expectations since Day 1.

If the Jays are to be World Series contenders like some posters think they are, Berrios needs to pitch like a front of the rotation arm or else...

I know the bullpen has taken a lot of heat. The FO added Pop and Bass which were solid adds at the deadline, though this team will struggle to close out close games to teams like the Astros, Yankees, Mariners, Twins, Rays in a Postseason series. It's going to be an edge of your seat thrill ride every game. Garcia has been solid and has held his own this season, so I'll give him a mulligan on tonight.

The ironic thing is the Orioles aren't even trying to make the Postseason haha. Jays will come out tomorrow strong and avoid the sweep!

JBJ's career numbers at Rogers Centre and Yankee Stadium are very disappointing.

Epsinal hasn't been hitting that well anyways, so platooning them isn't a bad thing.

We should make more lists. They're fun!

JBJ is a small upgrade over Zimmer at least with the bat. He has some Postseason experience as well. JBJ will be the ALCS MVP. You heard it here first!

I'll give you Roark having a better track record of success than Matz, though Roark was not a better pitcher than Robbie Ray moving forward and the advanced metrics support that. When the Blue Jays signed Roark, he was a 33-year-old durable innings eater for his entire career in the NL East and on the downwind of his career. I don't think the Blue Jays or any poster on here expected Roark to be a No. 1 or 2 starter. He was brought in for his durability and innings more than anything given the teams lack of MLB ready starting pitchers. Ray showed glimpses of ace potential with Arizona and put together some very good seasons with the D'Backs. Ray was only 28 when the Blue Jays traded for him as well. Roark had some solid years with the Nats early in his career for sure. His numbers weren't anything sexy and he was a solid 2-3 WAR pitcher. A lot of his value was tied into his innings. Otherwise, a career 7.29 K% and 4.24 xFIP. I think Roark could have been a valuable arm no doubt as an innings eater, though that never worked out. Regardless not losing any sleep over the signing.

Roark and Kikuchi never had the previous success like Ray and Matz did.

Ray had some really good seasons with Arizona before he came to Toronto. I don't think the 2021 Ray was any different from the Ray in 2016/2017 for example. He hit a rough patch in 2020 and the Jays helped him back on the right track. Matz was always a decent No. 4-5 starter with the Mets and who had some untapped potential. Injuries were always his concern.

Damnit that sucks from a fantasy baseball perspective in terms of Carpenter.

Outside of the bullpen, I think player to player and the top of the starting rotation is fairly even to the 2015 team. The seasons Vlad and Bo has last season would definitely help. The 2015 team did have an MVP season from Josh Donaldson, and both Jose Bautista and Edwin had monster years as well. Gausman leads all MLB pitchers in WAR.

I like this idea a lot. Would love to see the Blue Jays try that with him. It's a good strategy.