McNeil is signed to a very team friendly contract through 2026 with an AAV of $12.5M. Even after a down season, he still posted a 2.6 WAR. He's just one year removed from a 5.7 WAR season and he posted 4.9 WAR back in 2019. Only downside with McNeil is his age and he doesn't hit for much power. He kind of reminds me a bit of Justin Turner. Late bloomer and who could hit for a very high BA with 15-20 HR's in any given season offensively. He also fills the 2B void for the next three or four seasons as well.
Alonso is a proven power hitter and you know he's good for 3-4 WAR at least with 40 HR's. He's in a contract year as well, so he's definitely going to be motivated. Would be nice if the Jays could extend Alonso. Vlad on the other hand offers more upside and two years of control vs. one. However, Vladdy also could be a pumpkin again, and only produce 1.0 WAR. Plus he's going to get paid $18-20M each season through arbitration likely.
Manoah depends a lot on the relationship with the club and FO now. We really don't know how things are. If things are sour, Atkins isn't going to come out publicly and say it since that will impact the leverage the Jays have in trade. If Manoah and the Jays worked things out and he agrees to come into ST next year in better shape, a bounce back is definitely possible.
Overall, it's a tough call but I'm definitely leaning towards that offer if the Jays feel like Vladdy can't be fixed over the next year or two and if the relationship with Manoah has completely soured. Jays have a shorter window now, so you have to really emphasize the importance of the 2024 and 2025 seasons when you have guys like Bo still under club control and guys like Gausman still pitching in top form. Also, have to remember the Jays like will add around this trade as well, so this lineup could end up looking really good with other additions through FA and trade.