Sorrow

The biggest issue Toronto has is Vlad Guerrero. The front office built around Guerrero being who he was in 2021, and based on the tools and the MiLB pedigree really who could blame them. Who would have thought that even with a decline in production that you're getting at best 55% of what he was in 2021 and we're now in the second season in a row where it's looking like even that 55% is almost out of reach. He's become a 1 win, 120 wRC+ 1B who should be a full time DH. If he was even 75% of what he was in 2021 we're talking about a star, 4.5 win player with a 140 wRC+ bat that would really compliment the 130 that Jansen has done since the start of 2022 (Jays best hitter in that period) or Bichette's 120 in that time frame. The sad reality is because of Guerrero being a bust it likely cratered the window that should have existed, and if Guerrero's 2021 never happened this team likely looks a lot different. Can't change the past but I'm hopeful that Guerrero can turn back into 2022 Vlad and we may be able to trade him for some good assets but I feel like we're looking at a player who's going to be non-tendered this winter if he's not traded this season. If Jackson Holliday busts it would be similar in scope to Guerrero being as big a bust as he has been.

IIRC Shulman mentioned on Barger's 1st or 2nd game that his wife was expected to give birth any day so that could be it.

IIRC Fanatics has been making the Jerseys for like a decade to whoever’s specs

I think Guerrero is never going to revert back to 2021 but I could see return to 2022 of something like 3.3 fWAR. I just don't see it happening until he gets slapped in the face by reality with only getting a one year deal as a free agent after either being non-tendered this winter or after 2025 as a free agent.

I don’t have twitter but Joe Siddal put a side by side video up of Guerrero in 2021 and in 2024 and the swing is so drastically different. Weight transfer in the lower half is different, bat path to the zone has become slow and long, hand setup is different. To me it looks like someone compensating physical issues like a leg injury that didn’t heal 100% or a hand injury that has sapped strength, with the knee issues he’s had and the wrist issues I wonder if a lot of not all of Guerreros production problems are because his body is not capable of doing what he did prior to 2023. It’s similar to Bichette, Bichette has looked different at the plate post his leg injury. He doesn’t look as explosive with the swing and it looks like he’s struggling to bring the bat into the zone with speed like we’ve seen in the past.

Bichette has hit 237 since coming back from his leg injury last august with an 82 wRC+ and clearly has lost range in the field.

I’ve been looking into a bunch of players and seeing what their production was like prior to a hand injury like Olerud had suggested. For those that don’t want to dig back through the theory is that guys get hit on the hand, or stepped on or whatever and need to leave a game or stick with the game but don’t miss significant time like Jansen does with hand injuries and sure enough it looks like something might be there. I want to do a lot more digging into it to see if this is actually a possibility but for Jays players the drop in stats is roughly 70 points of slg and 30ish wRC+. I’d gone back to the Eric Hinske era and so far this theory actually may have some merit. Once I actually have time to go through a lot more data and if I find anything I’ll share.

That’s enough of this for me. Might be enough for the weekend lol.

Barger is having solid at bats. Making outs happens but when you’re seeing 5+ pitches you’re doing good. Top 3 batters saw 10 pitches and the next 4 saw 25ish.

Truthfully what I find most frustrating about the top 3 right now is that none of them are hitting and they all just swing at the first borderline strike to weakly pop out or ground out to 2B. At least take a few pitches and work the count a bit.

We should probably call up Buffalos lead off hitter. He has a .505 OBP to start the year with a 173 wRC+. Would be a solid replacement for our #2 hitter who still has options. Would possibly get him going again in a park he’s raked in before.

Vogelbach hasn't had a plate appearance in like two weeks and the quality of the at bat is so much drastically better than guys playing everyday are offering. Guerrero needs to be hitting in the bottom third of the order. Bichette should likely be moved down as well.

There may actually be something to your theory Olerud. Kirk prior to being hit in the hand on June 18 2022 had a 149 wRC+ with a .469 slug and post that it was a 118 wRC+ with a .382 slug. To today he's had a 101 wRC+ and a .354 slug. Vladdys injury happened so early in the season that it's hard to extrapolate a lot but before that he had 4 hrs in 24 PA, he was also hitting like .400. The balance of the season he obviously hit another 28 bombs and had a .460ish slug. But since that injury he's only slugged a total of .445. I'd really want to see other players from the Jays and other teams that have had a hand injury and not been injured for 6+ weeks like Jansen gets to see how drastically their power has dropped off. It's a shame that Vladdy's 2022 sample was so small before the injury because it's noise.

It’s worth noting Barger doesn’t have big splits in the past few seasons which is really nice.

Guerrero should likely ride the pine for a few days. Let Danny Burgers get some at bats.

Not sure if this was posted, there’s a twitter link for any twitter users through the Reddit link.

I think the team should be shaking up the line up. DH. Turner 2B. Biggio SS. Bichette CF. Varsho LF. Schneider C. Jansen 1B. Guerrero RF. Springer 3B. IKF For a few games and see what happens with some patience at the top and some power in the middle of the line up.

The issue with Martinez is footwork and his bad footwork leads to some terrible throws.

I think Guerrero's swing is mechanically broken. It looks to me like his weight transfer is basically not happening at all anymore and it's leading to him being late on everything. I don't think he's going to end the year as a 130 wRC+ bat that his skill set requires to actually be a useful player and if he's not traded sometime this season or early in the off season I imagine he's a non-tender candidate. I know he's under performing is his expected stats so far this season, and did in 2023, his sweet spot and barrels have dropped from a peak of 50th & 90th percentile in 2021 to 79 & 5 in 2022, 72 & 28 in 2023 and 65 & 5 in 2024. His fly ball percentage, most of his home runs are classified as fly balls, has dropped from 36.5% with only 7.7% of his balls in play being infield flies to 28.8% and 10.5% being infield flies. Ground ball rate has gone from 44.8% to 51.5%. He stills hits the ball hard as f*** but I think because he's so late on everything with zero discipline of the strike zone and likely pushing to try and make stuff happen he's made himself a useless player. I'd honestly rather see Horwitz starting at 1B for the rest of the season.

Yankees ended last season at +15 calls for or runs and the Jays has -3.

I'd like pre-June 2022 Kirk back. Since June of 2022 he has a .330 slg.

The velocity is a bit like Gausman in that he has so limited innings in spring training this year that he's probably only built up realistically for 40-50 pitches at max effort and then the fatigue sets in. He'll likely get optioned get another 3-4 weeks in AAA and be where he would have been without the spring training shut down. Him getting velocity back is great, it means his stuff should trend back towards being average.

I don't see any changes until at least June. I do think that Schneider needs to start playing Schneider in LF full time and treating KK, Schneider and Varsho as a bit of a platoon based on match ups. If someone has really good fastballs start KK over Schneider as an example. I do think this line up would look a better when Jansen is back with Jansen hitting 5th, Biggio 6th, Schneider 7th, Varsho 8th and IKF 9th that bottom half all of a sudden looks a lot better. Jansen is probably the best hitter on the team and it does lengthen the line up. Kirk needs to be hitting way down in the line up when he is playing. Since July 1st of 2022 Kirk has a 91 wRC+, .297 wOBA .245/.327/.334 triple slash, he should likely be hitting 9th behind Varsho, KK and IKF.

Answering BTS first, the velocity was better but still inconsistent from inning to inning. He'd look good for an inning and then come back out and it would be 89-92 and then back up. I'm hoping that this is more like we'd see from him in Spring Training, I think Buck mentioned he only threw like 3 innings in Spring Training so this could very well be his arm just needing catch up. In an ideal world I think we'd IL him and then have him start a 30 day rehab stint and just treat it like Spring Training.

Of the two I'd sign Bichette long term but not Guerrero and I think with Bichette's hitting profile that unless he becomes a lot more patient of a hitter, more like he was in the minors as an 8-9% walk rate with a 19.5% k-rate (similar to 2024 actually) I don't see that bat aging well into his early 30s when his reaction times slow down a bit.