Sorrow

Jesus Sanchez will likely get the vast majority of playing time in LF against RHP. He’s coming off a bad season but the prior two seasons was 116 and 119 wRC+ against RHP. He should never face a lefty. Schneider as a platoon mate works, sends Lukes to Buffalo with Straw as a 4th OF and Jimenez as a back up IF on the roster. Barger after the playoffs has likely earned himself some rope in RF against lefties, Varsho plays probably everyday unless it’s a day off against a really tough lefty with Straw taking a game in CF. Gimenez and Clement likely don’t get platooned as their D up the middle is game changing.

The Japanese version of baseball savant says that Okamoto is a plus defender at 1st and an average defender at 3rd for his career. If he can make the routine plays anywhere near the bag and Gimenez is Gimenez at SS you’re fine. If Varsho has another Varsho season with a bat around 100 wRC+ and an elite season in CF he’s probably a 20-25m a season player.

I wonder if the Braves would consider moving Acuna Jr. Yes a stiff breeze is enough to put him on the IL and he’s affordable but he won’t be a player the Braves can afford once his options are up.

I personally don’t want a cap but want a stricter or more punishing penalty system for going over and I’d also like a reverse luxury tax for going below a floor. I think that the luxury tax threshold should just be one level and it’s like a ladder that if you pass it you suffer the penalty for a season past the year you went onto it. As an example if you pass it for a part of one season you loose maybe half your international bonus pool and pay a financial penalty, for a second season an increased penalty, half your bonus pool and your first round pick and any compensation picks, third season add losing your first round pick and full bonus pool as well as being banned from signing players via the posting system. Then once you drop below you start working down the ladder so if you were on for three years you repeat that third year penalty and then start climbing down. In reverse if you go below you loose your revenue sharing on year one, international bonus pool and compensation picks on top of the revenue sharing year two and year three add the first round pick and a financial penalty double what you’re below the threshold, year four MLB takes over your team and forces a sale.

10/$350 was a good offer. I don’t think I’d have wanted Tucker at 50-60. I’d be open to Bellinger on a 6-7 year deal if the AAV was in the low 30s but I don’t think that’s going to be the case with how this winter has gone. Yes a lot of 2025 was the short porch but he also hit to a 120 wRC+ on the road in 23-24. He fills a need of an OF under contract beyond this season as well and the positional versatility helps with all the moving parts the roster has. Unless Acuna doesn’t get his options picked up the best free agent OF in the next few winters is Varsho. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Atkins and Co. are cooking up a trade for an OF.

Dodgers have to pay 110% luxury tax this year so it’s basically $120m this year for Tucker and if the CBA doesn’t change in 2027 it’s $184.

The difference in payroll between the first place Dodgers at 413 or 434 million and the second place Mets at 293 is the same gap between the Mets and 12th place Angels. I don’t see anyway there isn’t probably 15-18 owners demanding a hard cap on the next CBA. I honestly would not be surprised if 2027 is a lost season.

If we sign Tucker I’d almost guarantee it means Lukes is gone and probably Clase. You’d want a backup CF and probably a right handed bat.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Bichette has offers on the table and has told teams he’ll get back to them after his wedding. If the team signs Tucker I wonder if we see a trade for Marte including Barger to move Berrios contract.

If the team still brings back Bichette you have a solid line up. DH Springer 2B Bichette 1B Guerrero 3B Okamoto SS Gimenez against RHP and Clement against LHP LF Santander CF Varsho RF Barger a bench of Schneider, Heineman, Straw and Clement I think we see Lukes traded

I think Hernandez should be in the HoF and I think Sale is a shoe in as well. Wouldn’t surprise me if Cole gets there. I don’t think Wheeler or DeGrom make it.

I like Bregman as an option but would ideally still like a second bat.

He had a 45% whiff rate on the 4 seamer in the AFL. One breakdown I’ve seen has suggested that he uses the 4 seamer up early to steal an early strike and then uses the sinker like a change up as it has a lot of separation from the 4 seamer. “Here's some approximations of his pitch metrics from the AFL, based on his pitch plot from prospectsavant.com (though Statcast had trouble classifying his pitches): 4SFB: 95 mph, 15" iVB, 9" HB SINKER: 95 mph, 6" iVB, 16" HB CURVE: 80 mph, -10" iVB, -12" HB CUTTER: 90 mph, 7" iVB, -1" HB“ ”

I don’t think there’s a chance in hell Tony Taters is traded. He’s making like $10m/season with the deferrals and will move into the DH roll in 2027 and while he’s bad in the OF he’s not as bad as people seem to think. IIRC both Lukes and Loperfido have another option year.

I think Berrios is going to end up in either Anaheim or Arizona.

No he’s an averagish defender at 3rd and below average to bad in RF.

Santander is a bad fielder but if you keep Straw and Lukes as your backup OFs you just sub him out in the 7th or 8th. Santander is a better defender than Springer is over the past few seasons so if the bat bounces back I think you live with below average LF D for a season before he becomes the DH. I don’t see them trading Straw. He’s the only legit backup CF on the roster. I think we see a Loperfido or Lukes trade before we see a Straw trade. I do think we will see Berrios traded and I think Rodriguez will be as well. If the Jays throw in 15m or 5/season it may entice a team that thinks he could be solid trade bait at the deadline to trade for him, or a team like the Angels who need arms.

He threw 139.2 including MiLB, MLB and Post Season. He’s probably good for around 175 next year.

f*** yes. I wanted Ponce and this is great. I do think we will be trying to move Berrios unless the elbow is done.

I wouldn’t be shocked if deferrals are allowed but they do not allow more than something like 10% of the contract and the total hit to a cap or luxury tax is going to be the contract over years without the deferrals factoring in. I don’t think we see a salary cap unless we see a salary floor and you’d have a lot of big spending teams that would probably push for a cap of around $280m with a floor maybe around $140 but the cheaper owners would argue probably more like the last CBA of 180/100

I wonder if the Diamondbacks would take Berrios in a Marte trade. say something like Marte for Berrios, Nimmala, Shreck, + +

I wouldn’t be shocked, just in response to the stuff we don’t see coming, if we do trade for Marte and add another OF bat.

Cease has had a 6 win season by RA9WAR. yes it’s an overpay but he has the most potential of basically every pitcher on the market and is durable

I wouldn’t be shocked if we see Berrios go down for TJS early in 2026. He had a decrease in stuff, decrease in command, elbows don’t typically cause problems and get better.

Bellinger if he’s in the ballpark of 20-25/season isn’t a bad addition. He doesn’t have platoon splits for his career, plays four positions so allows the team to rotate other guys easily and he’s still a good but not great bat. I would obviously prefer Tucker but if you can get say Bichette and Bellinger for $10m a season more than Tucker alone I think it raises the overall floor and ceiling significantly.