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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    Nothing but a bunch of dicks.
  2. John_Havok
    Why bother with anything logical hurl, just ban the guy and let us all get back to actual baseball conversation
  3. John_Havok
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Br2_22e2RoU
  4. John_Havok
    I'm no mathlete but really what are the odds of something happening to all 3 players, if the percentage of it happening to each of them is 29%, 26% and 24 %(even if those numbers are accurate)? Or even better, 1%, 3%, 7% individually, but again to happen to all 3? Seems pretty low to me. And as greenwood pointed out, what degree of collapse? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to say that a pitcher who is 38 pitching in a pitchers park with 1 trick pitch who outperformed his peripherals might not pitch quite as well the next year in a hitters peark facing way tougher competition, but did anyone really expect close to 5 ERA for most of the season? No. Anyone who tells you that is pulling s*** out of their ass. Izturis going from 2 WAR in 2011 to -2.2 WAR is not really a standard age curve for 31-33 either. To say that the level of crapitude from every single person on that list was foreseeable is pretty much ludicrous.
  5. John_Havok
    Not that I'm defending Stoeten or anything, but really you can make an argument that all of the players who retrogressed this year at the sime can be attributed to luck. Just because it happened to two teams in the same year isn't really evidence of something that should have been forseen. Take your own numbers that you provided from baseball prospectus. You names 7 players with a percentage chance of collapse, none of whom had a higher chance than 29%, and 3 of whom were less than 10 percent. I don't think it takes a math genius to tell you the odds of all 7 collapsing, especially to the degree that they did in the same year is pretty low.
  6. John_Havok
    AA has gone full troll at this point.
  7. John_Havok
    it's not that long an explanation. Basically... king is a huge Brendan Kalfus fan, and they were trying to come up with a name for the Kalfus fan club, so they sent a tweet to kalfus with all the options, and "BK's Whoppers" was picked by Kalfus as the winner. So his pic is now Kalfus ... and a whopper.
  8. John_Havok
    You'll have to visit the prospect forum for that...the Brendan kalfus thread pretty much explains it.
  9. John_Havok
    It's way too complex, and also trying to quantify everything as it happens will probably drive people crazy since many thing that happen are not repeatable skills, and it also largely depends on the order things happen.
  10. John_Havok
    Maybe he used them both as a suppository to speed up absorption.
  11. John_Havok
    Tl;dr; don't give a flying f***.... When Selig takes responsibility for the steroid era, I might care again. Until then it's the biggest hypocritical fraud being perpetrated on the fans that there ever could be.
  12. John_Havok
    I haven't read the whole thread, but basically your proposed stat assumes that the pitcher is 100% responsible for every hit and earned run, and defense has no responsibility. That's just not true. FIP and xFIP on the flip side take defense out of the equation entirely, which is also not 100% correct, but probably closer to it. Dave Cameron on fangraphs said in a chat recently that maybe 30% RA9 and 70% FIP weighting is probably closer to accurate.
  13. John_Havok
    I drove to Las Vegas last year and on the interstate down there through Utah there's a town called Beaver. Sure enough in the gas stations, they sell T-Shirts that say " I <3 Beaver " I bought one for my fiancée who isn't from Canada, and of course had no idea what Beaver was slang for, so she wore it to work on casual Friday. She finally asked why everyone was half giggling at her shirt and her boss finally explained it to her. She has a good sense of humour so she only hit me twice.
  14. John_Havok
    Yeah teams do that kind of pointless garbage all the time.
  15. John_Havok
    Jays also drafted Farrels kid Shane in 2011, who did sign. Never played pro yet though
  16. John_Havok
    They also drafted aaron Nola's brother Austin in 2011, who also didn't sign. Austin then was drafted in 2012 by Miami and pretty much sucks.
  17. John_Havok
    He's been hitting well since the very end of July. .303/.343/.591 in August
  18. John_Havok
    Quantifiable is not the same as being visible. Yes managers have an impact, but exactly how much of an impact in terms of wins and losses is not easily quantifiable.
  19. John_Havok
    "Anraku became an international sensation this year after his outings at Spring Koshien, where he touched 94 mph and threw 772 pitches in nine days, including a 232-pitch outing. That workload also sparked frustration from several scouts with major league clubs, who worry about how is usage will affect his long-term health."
  20. John_Havok
    thought i'd give this a bump now that the tournament is over and this kid threw over 300 pitches with only 2 days rest between starts... http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/koshien-over-for-tomohiro-anraku-16-after-183-pitch-outing/
  21. John_Havok
    What a depressing thought
  22. John_Havok
    Agree. BUt SP1, SP2 and SP3 and C are the no brain concerns that should be at the top of the list.
  23. John_Havok
    I think his peak will likely be in the .340 wOBA range with plus defense. His K rate is probably going to be anywhere from 15-20%, walk rate around 7% though I'd love to see that come up to around 10% or so. I don't think he'll ever be a 30 HR threat, probably 20 HR with 35+ doubles and possible 20 SB if he can refine that skill and get better jumps. All in all he could probably put up 6-7ish WAR at his peak in his best years if he really takes off, though I expect more of a 4.5-5 to be closer to what he'll attain.
  24. John_Havok
    Lets see if pillar can do something useful with the bat
  25. John_Havok
    Kawasaki is on paternity leave
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