I think it's a bit different.
I don't think Vlad goes up there looking for a specific pitch to hit. I think he overthinks himself into guessing at what's coming and just isnt ready to hit all the mistakes when he gets them. He still hits a few but..not as many as he should.
Also, when he gets a borderline call against him, he has a tendency to swing at the very next pitch unless its very obviously a ball. Pitchers can take advantage of that by throwing just a bit further out in that same location to induce a bigger swing/miss chance.
Another problem is his the fact that he has the capability of inside-outing pitches on the inner half. That's a great skill. That type of swing with two strikes is fine, but he does it way too often in non two-strike counts. It's like he doesnt realize he should be looking to park those pitches in the left field stands.
Couple all of that with an objectively bad attack angle swing, and an inherent talent for making hard contact and you get what we see today; a guy who hits missiles all over the park, but not at the optimal launch angles with enough regularity to generate the type of power results that a guy of his talent should generate. A bad season for him should be 30-35 HRs.