Most fans tend to look at last years win total, then see no real turnover in the roster, and automatically seem to think that this year the Jays are starting out as a 74 win team at best. It's faulty and severely flawed thinking, but it is what it is.
Any team that does well in any season usually sees several things go their way. Breakouts from players you don't expect, limited problems with injuries especially with key players, and almost always, pitching that outperforms everyone's expectations. There's no real way to predict this though, but it has just as good a chance as happening to the Jays as any other team. It's just unlikely.
This team does have a lot of chronic injury bug players, look no futher than Reyes going down on the first AB of the season. There's a very decent chance that several key players will miss 100-150 Ab or 5-10 starts each, but... maybe not. Who knows?
If they're all healthy, we'll be in it. If not, probably not.