Using the average needed win total of 83 for the 2nd WC spot, the jays would need to go 27 and 18 over their last 45 games.
There's currently 7 teams above them, the 2 best of which would only need to win 24 and 25 games over their remaining schedules, not to mention the other 5 teams that would need between 25 and 27 wins as well.
For the Jays to do what they need to do AND have 7 other teams not do what they need to do is virtually impossible, especially given the state of the roster