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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    If the Jays go to arbitration with Guerrero it would be a colossal mistake. Lock him up for 8 years and get it done with. You’re correct though that the CBA and how it turns out in the off-season will be extremely impacting. It’s not just Vlad though, Biggio, Jansen, Teoscar, Berrios, Cimber, Mayza, Stripling….all of them are arbitration eligible in the off-season as well, just in varying stages. Bo doesn’t hit arb 1 until next off-season which is nice. Mayza won’t be expensive, Jansen won’t be either, Cimber will be cheap, stripling probably a bit higher than his 3 million this year. Teoscar will get a bump for sure but he deserves it. Berrios will be interesting as they might try to extend him, Biggio will be cheap but certainly retained. Borucki will be cheap, Thornton will be very cheap or just cut loose.
  2. John_Havok
    I don't doubt the general rule either, but Cimber and Mayza both pitched yesterday, so I can understand why he didn't want to go there. I mean he used Richards in an 8 run game the night before (gave up the solo Hr). I just wouldn't have gone to Soria, definitely would have liked to see Richards, Merryweather or Pearson
  3. John_Havok
    Would have rather seen Merryweather or Pearson there, but I can't really fault him for using Soria in a 5 run game. Didnt turn out well
  4. John_Havok
    Wow, Soria isn;t even getting close to the strike zone. Lets nip this problem in the bud before it gets out of hand. Welp....ah well. still a 3 run lead. Lets see the good arms now please.
  5. John_Havok
    I agree. Overall they hit the ball hard, just couldn't find a way to not him them directly at the defense.
  6. John_Havok
    Vlad has 2 doubles today with runners on 1st and no RBI. Dude just hits the ball too hard I guess.
  7. John_Havok
    Holy s***, a Robbie Ray curveball sighting! That's a rarity these days
  8. John_Havok
    It really seems to me, and I honestly have no evidence to support this other than the eye test and looking at our own hitters hot and cold zones... the Rays pitch to the hitter's weaknesses very effectively and really don't deviate from that plan. If the cold zone is away, they throw everything away, away, away, and take their chances that the hitters won't suddenly get good at hitting in their weakest areas. Yeah, they'll be the odd mistake pitch and missed locations, but they don't change unless the hitter's show them they have to. If I were a betting man, I would put a decent amount of money on the Rays having a very good pitch analytics department that digs way deeper than other orgs into pitch sequencing, locations, hot/cold zones in combination with sequencing etc. It would really help explain why it seems like all the nobodies in the world can go there and pitch like they are a front of the rotation starter or top end pen arm.
  9. John_Havok
    ok will do
  10. John_Havok
    Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Flyout 99.6mph, xBA .470
  11. John_Havok
    Guys that fill the strike zone will have those days for sure. Given the batted balls tonight though, he could also just as easily given up 5 runs and be out of the game. Lots of rockets finding gloves.
  12. John_Havok
    And Teoscars was 100 mph also. Real s*** luck on those 2 balls. xBA on Vlads was .780, Teo's was only .410... so not incredibly unlucky, but to have those both happen with runners on base is a gut punch. Jays now have 3 lineouts with xBA's above .760 in with Vlad, McGuire and Springer
  13. John_Havok
    That's kinda my point. How a team scores like they do with all these limp noodle hitters is crazy. Yeah some are injured right now, so that's a thing, but they still keep winning.
  14. John_Havok
    Dunno man, he's leaving some pretty tasty meatballs up there so far that are getting hit right at the defense.
  15. John_Havok
    The Rays have exactly 1 hitter in their lineup with an OPS higher than .770 and it's Nelson Cruz. how they keep winning like they do is incredible.
  16. John_Havok
    All of his pitches this inning were sliders and cutters. And everything was away with the exception of that front door slider to Vlad for called strike 1. Not hard to see the game plan there.
  17. John_Havok
    It does when you're the Rays. Someone sold their soul down there
  18. John_Havok
    Excellent article on Fangraphs about how unlikely what we've seen is... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-blue-jays-soar-into-playoff-position/
  19. John_Havok
    Because at this point in the season, only weirdness happening really changes things.
  20. John_Havok
    Come on, Hazel has work to do during the games y'know.
  21. John_Havok
    https://technology.mlblogs.com/an-introduction-to-expected-weighted-on-base-average-xwoba-29d6070ba52b A really good read and helps explain. In short though, ground balls are much easier to predict what will happen based on exit velocity and angle because there's fewer Xfactors in play, fly balls have higher error margins, due to wind, sea level changes, long or short porches etc.
  22. John_Havok
    Did you catch Sanchez’s ultra awful tag at the plate yesterday? Runner was gunned by 20 feet, Sanchez literally stepped aside and let him slide under the tag.
  23. John_Havok
    And all 3 games played in 24 hours
  24. John_Havok
    Back to back? When did he win the first?
  25. John_Havok
    You’re not looking for debate, you’re looking at a few numbers, have a pre-formed bias, including a very healthy dose of recency bias and trying to somehow prove that Matz is a better pitcher than Ryu. It’s laughable. It’s not worthy of debate. Ryu is a better pitcher, currently getting worse results largely due to fluctuations in batted ball luck outside of his control. Matz is a worse pitcher, currently getting better results largely due to fluctuations in batter ball luck beyond his control.
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