John_Havok

I would happily sign Vlad for 10 years as soon as the lockout is over. 10 years, 250-280 million would be my max. It's pretty much 10 million for 2022, then 15, 20 and 25 for the rest of his arb years, and 30-35 million for years 5-10. you lock in his best years and avoid the downside. Add in some Awards based incentives for MVP, Silver Sluggers that could take it over 300 million and I would be fine with that too. The only real risk is injury and/or ice cream consumption.

I nearly spit my tea all over my monitor with that one. That is gold sir.

Could be. But that's why the eye test is horribly flawed. When Jones was in his prime 11 year run, his WORST defensive year was better than Pillar's best and most years he was significantly better than Pillar's best... like twice as many runs saved kind of thing. I really think Jones gets severely and unfairly underrated by baseball as a whole.

I have a feeling we are very close to the same age. Way younger than Hurl though, thankfully.

Congrats. You are now old. Welcome to the club

Griffey Jr did have some great defensive years in CF, he was legitimately good on Defense. Not Jones level elite consistently, but he was still quite good.

I have no doubts the union will be pushing for it like crazy, but the reality is that they have a lot of other things that can help out players salaries that they can get done easier than a floor. We know a hard salary cap is a nonstarter for the PA. The hard floor is the same for the owners. If a cap/floor system ever comes to MLB, the labour stoppage that preceded it will have been extremely long.

I don’t understand the way of thinking of “depends who else is on the ballot” unless you run out of space because of the stupid 10 names limit. He might be the worst of the worthy candidates every year but that’s no reason to sit until a “weaker” class shows up. Either he’s worthy or he isn’t. The guy who passes all his classes in med school, but has the worst grades still gets called Doctor.

Probably due to a variety of factors, the most obvious being that he was in the era where guys were hitting 50-60 HRs a season regularly, he only hit 30-35. PLus, the publicly available advanced metrics on offense and defense were still in their infancy. I mean, people could see someone was a good defender, but they had no idea how much more valuable Andruw Jones was versus a normal no-bat, all defense CF. At the time, he probably just looked like your average run of the mill CF who happened to hit for some power, while other guys who didn't play CF hit 60 bombs a year.

If you had a vote, would you vote for Jones and/or Rolen?

Why not? I'm not saying you're wrong btw, just wondering why two elite defensive players, with virtually the same WAR would be treated differently by the Hall voters. Jones was way better with the bat, and just slightly less good defensively. The clearly better offense doesn't make up for the marginally inferior defense? What about Rolen? Even better offensively than Jones, but a clear tick below on D. Still managed 70 WAR over 17 seasons. Still no?

Ozzie Smith is in the Hall of Fame for his defense. 67 WAR in 18 seasons. Combo of negative offense and elite defense. Andruw Jones put up 67 WAR in 17 seasons, though largely in the first 11. Combo of both good offense and elite defense. Does that change your opinion in any way?

Andruw Jones for the Hall of Fame: Hard to deny those 11 seasons from 1997-2007 as being as close to godly as you can get for a CF - 10 time no doubt gold glove defense with 30+ HR per year. Also the poster child for falling of a cliff due to injury in 2008. Easily a HOF peak IMO, but not the typical longevity. yay or nay?

1. Guaranteed 2. Nope 3. Probably 4. Guaranteed 5. Can't see a salary floor, but I can see an increase in the luxury tax threshold to 230ish million or so. The salary floor will be thing that I think the players will give up on in order to get minimum salary increases and some sort of better deal for younger players, arbitration, years of control etc.

Me neither. I know there was a bid deal for Bonds to go to Atlanta in 1992 that ultimately didn't happen, but that was only written about years later by the Braves GM in his book.

You could, but that would be using the same flawed argument, so would still be equally invalid. The better kind of question would be.... 10 years ago, would you have given Nelson Cruz a 10 year full market value deal thinking he would still be productive as a 40 year old or would you not... because you'd likely think his productions would decline due to a normal aging curve like most other players? I think I know the answer. The two situations of course are not the same since Vlad is 23, not 30. But using normal aging curves, it's a reasonable expectation that Vlad's production will start to decline around 33. It's not overly prudent to base your contract offer around hoping that he will be the exception rather than the rule.

I tried watching the game on Amazon Prime, knowing the two QBs seem to be pretty good... but then like 5 commercial breaks happened in the first 3 minutes of the game and I couldn't get into it.

Yeah, that's kinda where I'm at. Admittedly though, part of the hesitation on my part is due to what Vlad looked like in years 1 and 2, out of shape and unmotivated. Year 3 he flipped the script. Am I 100% certain that year 3 is going to be repeated for the next 14 years through age 37? Hell no. For the next 10? Moreso, but still not entirely convinced. plus he plays 1b. If he was a 3B of even average defense, I'd be more amenable to putting out long term and dollars. 1B/DH isn't a great investment on a possible 30 million dollar AAV. he has arbitration through 2025. Lets assume he hits somewhere between years 1+2 and 3. So not quite MVP caliber but easily All Star level. 10 million this year, turns to 15 in 2023, 20 2024 and likely topping 25 million in 2025. Even without an extension, you're already looking at 4 years and 70 million to keep Vlad for the next 4 years. adding 6 years at 30 million AAV is 180 million. ... hence 10 years, 250 million. make it 35 million AAV and youre at 10 years 280 million. Beyond 10 years for Vlad is pretty silly given his defensive position. therefore a 10/250-280 seems entirely reasonable and no need to push past 300

I think the 29.5 age was chosen as the arbitrary age because the average age of rookies is right around 23, so... 6 years of service time would mean free agency right around 29-30. The problem with their proposal is there was no other threshold, such as service time that players could hit to get to free agency sooner if they were called up before 23, and no way to address service time manipulation that they would still be able to do if they called up guys at 20 to ensure they still have them on the team when they're 29.5. Gotta have both in there, unless we think it's totally cool for a team to be 100% in charge of a player for up to 12 seasons with no way for them to shop around.

Wouldn’t need to give him 300 million though. 10/250 is probably enough to get it done. No need to overpay for his arb years and I wouldn’t even want to come close to Tatis Jrs extension

It’s about how they calculate years of service and option seasons. Clarification is at https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2021/12/14/11163918/will-2022-be-julian-merryweathers-first-season-of-service-with-the-blue-jays

You mean Vlad?

Maybe. could have just needed longer to truly recover from his injuries. No better place for him to do it from his perspective than in Japan. He's still young enough to make a go of it back in the states if he hits well. Average salary over in Japan is pretty low compared to MLB, but it's more than a minor league paycheck.

It's probably the better move for him. 1 good year in Japan and he might be able to parlay it into guaranteed money back here. The best he was going to get from any team here is a minor league deal with ST invite.

McGriffs biggest problem is that his career started the exact same year as Bonds, Palmeiro and McGwire. Griff has a great career, but never had the same peaks as those guys did. That’s why he gets underrated for the Hall